Why California's coronavirus surge isn't expected to ease anytime soon

California has seen a surge in coronavirus cases this summer, and experts have warned that new variants driving the spread of the virus could persist for some time.

The recent summer COVID surge has been driven by a collection of more contagious sibling strains called FLiRT variants that are growing rapidly in California and across the nation. Last winter's dominant strainJN.1, posing new challenges for an immune system that is not prepared to thwart them.

“Certainly, we're spitting out more and more variants, more quickly, but that's probably to be expected,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional director of infectious diseases for Kaiser Permanente Southern California. “This virus is still very new to the human population, and it wants to survive, and the way it does that is by evading immunity,” meaning it evades people's defenses by evolving in a way that allows it to continue the chain of transmission.

And the data shows that the entire FLiRT family is getting a lot of attention.

Here's more information about the current COVID-19 situation in California and how to protect yourself.

Why do FLiRT variants pose such challenges?

There are many variants of FLiRT, all descendants of the JN.1 strain that was dominant last winter. In late spring, around Memorial Day weekend, the name was mostly used by trio Each is a different lineage (officially designated KP.1.1, KP.2, and KP.3).

But just when it seemed like these three might be the highlights of the summer, a whole host of other potential threats emerged: KP.3.1.1, KP.2.3, KP.1.1.3, KP.4.1 and KP.1.2.

Of those, KP.3.1.1 has seen the most clear increase: in the two weeks ending July 20, KP.3.1.1 accounted for 17.7% of samples nationwide, up from 6.8% in the previous two weeks. It is estimated that From the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

KP.3.1.1 has been “really successful,” Hudson said.

In contrast, the older KP.3 has stagnated: its share of coronavirus samples in the two weeks ending July 20 was estimated at 32.9%, down slightly from 33.7% in the two weeks prior.

The CDC's latest estimates indicate that KP.3.1.1 “may be circulating for the next two to three weeks,” Hudson said Friday, “so unfortunately, I think we're going to see a rise in case numbers.”

Isn't that a huge burden in such a short period of time?

Yes, but the coronavirus that causes COVID (officially known as SARS-CoV-2) is still so new to humans that it has not yet settled into the more predictable patterns that public health officials have recognized for other infectious diseases. Influenza, etc..

Since emerging in late 2019, coronaviruses have continued to evolve to evade immune defenses, with strains best suited to infect as many people as possible eventually rising to prominence, a trend seen in previous phases of the pandemic. Delta and Omicron variantboth Among them It was the trigger A devastating storm surge.

As humans gain protection against specific variants, either through improved vaccines or surviving infection, the virus will seek to evolve in ways that allow the chain of infection to continue.

“And then over the summer we've seen some rapid spread of variants that may be a little bit more transmissible,” Hudson said.

It is also true that this is the fifth summer of the COVID-19 pandemic, with many people letting their guard down and many infected people continuing to live their lives without wearing masks or taking other precautions, allowing the virus to spread more efficiently.

What do the indicators show?

Wastewater: The CDC announced Friday that coronavirus concentrations in California's wastewater have been “very high” for three consecutive weeks, following four weeks of “high” virus concentrations. In the seven days ending July 20, the most recent data available, coronavirus concentrations in California's wastewater were 93% of what they were at their peak in summer 2022. They have already surpassed last summer's high.

test: The percentage of positive coronavirus tests in California has surpassed last summer's peak. In the seven days ending July 22, 13.8% of coronavirus tests came back positive. The high last summer was 13.1%.

Deaths and hospitalizations: Overall, COVID deaths and hospitalizations appear to be lower than last summer. In Los Angeles County, an average of 286 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 during the week ending July 20. That's down from 291 the previous week, about half of last summer's peak and a quarter of the summer 2022 peak.

What are some prevention tips?

vaccineDoctors are urging people, especially those at high risk for serious complications from COVID-19, to consider getting up to date on their vaccinations. Most people should have received at least one dose of the latest vaccine since September, but most haven't. People over 65 should consider getting up to date on their vaccinations. Second dose Four months after my first marriage. People with immunodeficiencies People will need to get one or two doses of the updated vaccine, and a booster dose can be given two months after the last recommended dose.

Avoid sick people: Some people may dismiss the symptoms as a cold, but it could be the beginning of COVID-19. “If you live in Los Angeles and have cough and cold symptoms at this time, you should really assume it's COVID unless proven otherwise,” Hudson says.

masking: Wearing masks is not mandatory in public places such as airports. For many yearsBut you can reduce your risk of catching COVID-19, a strategy that's especially effective when traveling, such as by plane, which “is a very common way that people get infected,” Hudson says.

If exposed: Los Angeles County Health Department Recommendation to Close contacts of someone with COVID-19 are encouraged to wear a tight-fitting mask when around others for 10 days after their last contact and to get tested 3-5 days after their last contact.

What happens if I get COVID?

test: Hudson urges people to get tested repeatedly if they have COVID-19 symptoms, even as early as day five after symptoms began. People who feel unwell may test negative the first few days after symptoms appear, but later test positive.

Quarantine and wearing masksCDC urges people to Stay home and away from others In case of illness. People Can be resumed Once symptoms improve and fever subsides without the use of medications like Tylenol or Advil, people can resume normal activities within 24 hours. But the CDC recommends taking additional precautions, like wearing a mask and maintaining distance from others, for five more days to prevent spreading the virus to others. These precautions should also be followed by people who test positive but don't have symptoms, the CDC said.

Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Suggest Symptomatic infected people must test negative before being released from isolation. The agency also recommends that infected people, whether they have symptoms or not, continue to wear masks in the presence of others for 10 days after they start feeling sick, or after their first positive test result if they are asymptomatic. However, Two consecutive negative tests Keep them apart for at least a day.

Avoid the most vulnerable: The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health also recommends that infected individuals avoid contact with high-risk individuals for 10 days after symptoms appear or after their first positive test result. If a patient recovers and then becomes ill again, COVID-19 Rebound It needs to be isolated.

Antiviral Treatment: Consider asking your healthcare provider if they can prescribe an anti-COVID medication, such as Paxlobuzoid. Antiviral medications can be used to treat people with mild to moderate illness who are at risk for worsening symptoms. Patients who take Paxlobuzoid: Eliminate coronavirus from the body quickly Some health officials say the technology should be used more widely. California once offered free virtual COVID consultations to residents seeking antiviral prescriptions, but the program ended in March. The contractor that provided the service said: sesamecare.com/covidcurrently offers these medical services for a fee, with discounts available to California residents.

Watch out for a COVID rebound: COVID-19 Rebound Even if a person who has had COVID-19 feels recovered, they may start to feel unwell 2 to 8 days after recovery. Some people may also test positive again. A COVID-19 rebound can make them infectious again. A rebound can occur whether or not they have taken the drug. PaxrovidIf you become sick again after recovering from COVID-19, follow the same instructions you received in the early stages of the illness to stay home and avoid contact with others.