Health

New York City Death During Coronavirus Surging Reminds of 1918 Flu Pandemic Peak

According to a study published Thursday at the JAMA Network Open, the relative increase in early deaths in the Covid-19 pandemic was actually much higher than it was at the peak of the 1918 pandemic.

“The big point is that when we compare what happened, the magnitude of these changes in death, including the magnitude of the impact this has on the system, are very similar for these pandemics,” the study coauthor said. It was Dr. Jeremy Faust, An emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and an instructor at Harvard Medical School. “In fact, by thinking, Covid-19 has a much lower impact on today’s healthcare systems because it usually has a lower mortality rate than it did in 1918. So Covid-19 is a change from our norm. The 1918 flu was so.”

According to Faust, comparing the first two months of a pandemic in New York with the worst two months of a pandemic in New York 100 years ago, the mortality rate for Covid-19 was more than 70% per capita. ..

“We know who would be if we had no modern ICU, couldn’t treat secondary antibiotic infections, had people put on ventilators, couldn’t get oxygen,” Faust said. It was “A side-by-side comparison of these viruses would make Covid-19 worse, without all the medical bells and whistles we have today.”

“Fortunately, we never know that as we can save more lives, but even with all the technological and medical advances, mortality is the worst of 1918. It’s 70% worse than it was at that time, and I don’t think people understand how serious this is.”

The doctor who fought the flu pandemic of 1918 is very similar to Dr. Forch.

Faust may underestimate how bad this pandemic is, because it depicts historic pandemics and plagues, like the movie where Kurt walks by the road to pick up a corpse. Because it is.

“That’s why these refrigerated trucks outside the hospital are like that,” Faust said.

It was estimated that the 1918 flu infected one-third of the world’s population, killing about 50 million people. Like this pandemic, it had some impact on some communities more than others.

This study only considers data specific to New York City. It cannot be used to characterize the spread of this pandemic in other cities or across the country. According to experts, New York was hit hard in the early pandemics, and since then, other cities have learned from what worked first.

The results were fatal when Denver retreated its social distance in the 1918 pandemic

John Barry, Author The authors of the 2004 book, The Great Influenza, said the results were staggering.

Barry, who was not involved in the new study, believes other indicators are clear, at least for the country, he believes the 1918 pandemic was “much more powerful” than the Covid-19 pandemic. I said.

“When we hit New York, we didn’t really know how to handle the incident, and we’ve learned more since then,” Barry said. “I think the number of deaths from Covid-19 in New York is probably higher… and it cuts back after that first wave of exposure, but it’s still surprising that these numbers don’t make a big difference. It was.”

In the 1918 flu pandemic, not wearing a mask was illegal in some parts of the United States. What has changed

When it comes to death, New York is better than many other cities in 1918, Barry said. The city was exposed to the virus in the spring, killing 33,000 people during the pandemic.

Barry also said that for the Covid-19 pandemic, doctors have more options to look after patients. There is no cure, but even what supportive care physicians offer to patients is now far superior to the patients in 1918.

“By 1918, there was no supportive care,” Barry said.

Faust said that what he wants people to remove from the study is to understand exactly how serious this pandemic is.

“You don’t have to wait until the end to look back and see that these events are of similar magnitude,” Faust said. “I’m coming home here, unless we do something, and if we don’t take this really seriously, one year from now, we see the same numbers we’ve seen since 1918. You can do it.”

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