Health economists say multiple factors affect the pricing of the Canadian COVID-19 vaccine

According to Christopher McCabe, health economist at Alberta State University School of Medicine and Dentistry, traditional drug costing models are unlikely to apply when tagging a vaccine against Canada’s COVID-19. Economy.

“If you have a population-specific infection, what you need is vaccine “In order to achieve herd immunity, we need to vaccinate 60-80% of our current population,” McCabe said. “We can afford to buy it at a level that will achieve herd immunity.” Without the public paying for herd immunity, if paid, its value is much less.”

McCabe pointed out that the standard estimate for researching and developing new drugs is US$1.3 billion, based on research developed by Tufts University. Take that number into account Sunk cost Almost 90% of the drugs that are not likely to hit the market.

McCabe Pharmaceutical company Selling a vaccine may be better viewed as a kind of “loss leader” that reinstates the economy.

“The value of ensuring that vaccines are in widespread use is to allow other drugs that have been invested in development to be sold later as the economy is functioning again,” McCabe said. It was

“Drug companies will receive inadequate advice, from basic self-interest to prices that hinder herd immunity,” said McCabe, chair of the Royal Canadian Society’s COVID Task Force Working Group on Economics. Stated. “I will encourage government price negotiators to point them out.”

Canada vs. USA

Over 100 vaccine projects are underway around the world, Clinical trialSeveral countries, including the United States, and many in Europe have booked hundreds of millions of doses of the most promising drug, hoping that widespread vaccination could be initiated by the end of the year. Canada announced deals last month with potential vaccine suppliers Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Novovax, and is in talks with others, but pricing information has not been disclosed.

In the United States, where individuals or their insurers bear the cost of vaccinations, the cost-per-dose estimates range from $20 to $145, which provides a reasonable low-end price for 37.6 million Canadians. For nearly $4 billion. According to McKebe, nearly 10% of Canadian drug bills are made each year. But he predicted the calculations would be very different in Canada, where the purchase would be made by the public health care system.

“This is a very complex value proposition to understand,” McCabe said. “What is the relationship between different levels of population coverage and a reduction in the risk of another outbreak, with all the associated economic turmoil?”

Part of that value depends on how effective the vaccine is in preventing infection and how long the immunity lasts, he said.

“If it doesn’t result in lasting immunity to the individual, Herd immunity From a personal point of view, McCabe is a better strategy. Influenza vaccine This is really a one-season treatment and sustainable prices can be much lower. “

Competitive pressure

To date, only one drug, lemdecibir, has been approved in Canada to treat patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms. But McCabe hopes more and more antiviral drugs will be available soon, and while treatment cannot stop the spread of the virus, it reduces the lethality of the virus, which in turn reduces costs. It will further reduce the potential value of the vaccine. For individuals, healthcare systems and the economy.

He said that even non-pharmaceutical measures, such as wearing protective masks, may prove further research to be an effective and relatively cheap strategy for governments seeking to counterattack against COVID-19.

“The government is reluctant to oppose the individual free lobby without that strong evidence, but when evidence comes out, they are willing to delegate masking, and I think it could make a big difference. “McCabe said.

“If masking could reduce the infection rate to a level where the economy could return to near normal, people could get back to work, school could reopen, and vaccines would pay much less,” he said. Said.

Big stick and silver bullets

If McCabe refuses to accept a reasonably priced offer for vaccine manufacturers, Federal government COVID-19 You can choose to trigger an amended national patent law amended at the beginning of the crisis.

“If the patentee refuses to agree on a reasonable price for the use of a drug or technology, and if the technology is obviously important to our national security, the government will issue a compulsory license to manufacture and Supply,” he explained.

“It’s an important stick with the government in the corner while they’re negotiating prices,” he said.

The Government of Trudeau recently signed a letter from a world leader encouraging global cooperation to ensure that vaccines are manufactured and distributed globally fairly. Canada has made its name as one of the 75 developed countries that pays publicly paid vaccines and supports the donation of supplies to 90 developing countries.

McCabe said the approach makes sense for Canada. Because our country is vulnerable to more outbreaks unless global immunity is achieved.

“Everyone is protected from COVID-19, or no one is fully protected, so we need to have an agreement that guarantees global access (access to vaccines),” he explained.

As the competition continues to develop effective vaccines, McCabe gives individuals a strong test to adhere to and support recommended public health measures such as social distances, handwashing, and masking, as well as control outbreaks. And encouraged a careful reopening of the school with tracking capabilities.

“It’s often not a shiny science, it’s not a silver bullet, but rather a low-level routine that would make a big difference,” he said.

“We had to shut down to get the opportunity to control this,” McCabe said. “We now have to do everything necessary to do the right thing so that society can reopen so that it can begin to recover. It won’t happen.”