Lockdown critics say COVID-19 is only slightly worse than the flu – Australian Associated Press

AAP FactCheck Survey:

Is COVID-19 mortality only slightly worse than seasonal flu?

statement

“According to a study by Ioanidis, the mortality rate (in the case of COVID-19) is only slightly worse than the standard influenza virus, which kills hundreds of illnesses and older New Zealanders each year.”

Simon Thornley, Senior Lecturer of Epidemiology, University of Auckland. September 6, 2020.

analysis

A group calling on New Zealand to relax regulations to prevent the spread of COVID-19 argues that the virus is only slightly worse than seasonal flu.

This claim is COVID Plan B, A group of 6 scholars, including 3 health science instructors. Group has Requested the end of COVID-19 lockdown, Claims that the risk of the virus is overestimated, and lockdown is more harmful than the virus itself.

Interview with TVNZ Q + A and Jack Tame on September 6th, Group representative, University of Auckland Epidemiology Lecturer Simon Thornley He said New Zealand’s response to COVID-19 was caused by fear and panic and was unreasonable and irrational. (Video mark 1 minute).

“A study by Ioanidis shows that mortality is only slightly worse than the standard flu virus, which kills hundreds of illnesses and older New Zealanders each year,” said Dr. Thornley.

“The response must be measured, not as a lockdown, as planned for a lower mortality pandemic.

“We are sacrificing humanity, society and the economy for the wrong virus.”

AAP FactCheck Examined Dr. Thornley’s statement that COVID-19 mortality is slightly worse than seasonal flu.

Dr. Thornley said his statement was based on July 14, 2020 Report Along Stanford University Epidemiology Professor John PA Ioanidis..

The non-peer-reviewed report provides a meta-analysis of 36 studies examining the prevalence of COVID-19 antibodies in the population to identify areas infected with the virus.

This can be used to more accurately calculate the percentage of people who die after catching the virus. Case fatality rate (IFR)..

Dr. Ioannidis said the estimated IFR for this study ranged from 0% to 1.63% with a median of 0.27%. (Page 2)

Also directed by Dr. Thornley AAP fact check To A study investigating the prevalence of COVID-19 in Indiana The IFR was estimated at 0.26%. However, the study excluded deaths from elderly home residents, who account for 54.9% of COVID-19 deaths in the state.

Dr. Thornley said the IFR for seasonal influenza fluctuates, but “usually estimated at less than 0.5%.” According to a 2009 survey, influenza mortality rate was “similar to the upper limit” at 0.5%.. Report Quote web page from USA Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Information about influenza as the source for this figure, but this web page does not currently include influenza mortality. Page archive Influenza IFR will not be displayed in 2009 either.

Influenza IFR of 0.5 is similar to the upper limit of COVID-19. However, in other studies, the IFR of COVID-19 is significantly higher and the IFR of influenza is significantly lower.

Another non-peer-reviewed meta-analysis of COVID-19 infection mortality Looking at 24 studies, IFR was estimated to be 0.68%-almost three times that found by Ioannidis. (Page 2)

The authors noted high levels of variability between different studies and stated that IFR estimates were probably underestimated. (Page 3).

World Health Organization (WHO) Discovered COVID-19 IFR estimate “converged to about 0.5-1%” It is based on a total of three studies, two in Switzerland and one in Stockholm, Sweden.

In contrast, WHO states that “mortality is usually well below 0.1%” In the case of seasonal influenza, it suggests that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 5 to 10 times that of influenza.

From July 10th to September 9th, the website archive The CDC officially estimated the IFR for COVID-19 to be 0.0065 deaths, or 0.65%, per infection. (table 1). These numbers were replaced on September 10 with a breakdown of IFR estimates by age range.

The overall CDC number of influenza deaths each year suggests that the number of people already dying from COVID-19 in the United States is about five times that of people dying from influenza in the average year. I will.

Between 2010/11 and 2018/19 The number of people who die of influenza each year in the United States ranged from 12,000 to 61,000. Influenza deaths averaged 37,462, while influenza symptoms ranged from 9.3 to 45 million, with an average of 28.6 million (Table 1).

Using an average that does not include asymptomatic cases, the crude IFR is 0.13%. However One meta-analysis found in 4-85% of people with influenza is asymptomatic..

On the other hand, as of September 10 The United States had already recorded 188,608 COVID-19 deaths..

Nick Wilson, Professor of Public Health, University of Otago Has published several papers on New Zealand pandemic influenza, stating that the IFR of COVID-19 is significantly higher than that of seasonal influenza.

He was unaware of studies that directly calculated the IFR of influenza, 2017 survey An average of 0.0135% of the population dies of influenza each year.

So An estimated 10-20% of New Zealand is infected with seasonal influenza each year, This suggests that IFR is between 0.0675% and 0.135%.

Professor Michael Baker, Epidemiologist at the University of Otago Dr. Thornley’s remarks “are not supported by evidence generated in New Zealand,” he agreed.

He said A comprehensive survey of national influenza rates reveals that about 35% are infected with the virus each yearThis further lowers the IFR for influenza to about 0.04%.

This means that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 7 times higher than that of seasonal influenza based on the Ioanidis figure, or nearly 18 times higher based on the 0.68% rate. From another meta-analysis, Or 16 times higher based on the 0.65 percent rate quoted by the CDC.

Professor Rod Jackson, Epidemiologist, University of Auckland I was critical of the discovery of the Ioanidis study. He said the mortality rate he used was unreliable because it was derived using the median studies that produced very different results.

“It’s a complete no-no for evidence review if there are very different estimates from different studies,” said Professor Jackson.

The Ioanidis study included in his meta-analysis was also based on a particular subpopulation (city or region), and the tests were done in a relatively short period of time, so the results could be inaccurate. Said.

Professor Jackson said his unpublished study found that COVID-19 had an IFR close to 1%.

He also pointed out Other studies In the United States, we examined the number of COVID-19 deaths per week and compared it to the peak number of influenza deaths per week in the average year, and found that the case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 9.5-44.1 times higher. ..