Health
Explainer: Why Coronavirus Mortality Still Escapes Scientists
(Reuters)-COVID-19 has reached 1 million deaths worldwide, but experts still know the case fatality rate (mortality rate of people infected with pathogens), which is an important indicator of a pandemic. I’m having a hard time.
Let’s look at the issues surrounding better understanding of COVID-19 mortality.
How is the mortality rate calculated?
True mortality compares the total number of deaths and infections. The denominator remains unknown because it is difficult to measure the entire range of asymptomatic cases. Many infected people simply do not experience any symptoms.
Scientists say the total number of infections is exponentially higher than currently confirmed, at 33 million worldwide. Many experts believe that the coronavirus is likely to kill 0.5% to 1% of infected people and will be a very dangerous virus worldwide until the vaccine is identified.
With increasing evidence that young people and children are much less likely to experience serious illness, researchers are beginning to classify their risks by age group.
“The mortality rate for people under the age of 20 is probably 1 in 10,000. About 1 in 6 for people over the age of 85,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington in Seattle. Stated.
What is the “case fatality rate”?
Mortality is clearly reduced when measured against the number of new infections identified by coronavirus testing. In places like the United States, according to Reuters statistics, its “case fatality rate” dropped dramatically from 6.6% in April to just over 2% in August.
However, experts say that this reduction is primarily caused by a wider range of tests compared to the early stages of the pandemic, detecting more people with mild illness or no symptoms. Improved treatment of critically ill patients and protection of the highest-risk groups are also believed to contribute to improved survival.
Dr. Ameshua Darja of the Johns Hopkins University Health and Security Center in Baltimore said: “Patients infected with COVID-19 in 2020 should be infected now rather than in March.”
What does that mean for individuals and governments?
This underscores the need for continued vigilance, as a second wave of infection is beginning to emerge in some countries.
For example, French researchers estimate that the case fatality rate of the country has decreased by 46% by the end of July compared to the end of May. This is due to increased testing, improved health care, and an increased rate of infections occurring in young people. You are less likely to experience a serious illness.
Mircea Sofonea, a researcher at the University of Montpellier in France, said: “Currently, the number of hospitalizations and ICU (Intensive Care Unit) registrations is increasing.” We need to understand why. “
Report by Deena Beasley; Additional report by Matthias Blamont in Paris.Edited by Will Dunham
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