The UK coronavirus has an R number of 1.6 and the virus is “very likely” but still growing

The number of “R” s in the UK is high at 1.6, and a government scientific adviser today declared that it was “very likely” to warn. Coronavirus It is still growing exponentially.

According to the Emergency Science Advisory Group (SAGE), R is estimated to be between 1.3 and 1.6, from the range of 1.2 to 1.5 last week.

And the spread of the disease is believed to grow between 5% and 9% daily.

The R number reflects the situation up to 3 weeks ago, as it uses different models to calculate how the virus spreads.

And today’s individual infection data It showed the first signs that the surge in new cases in early September may have slowed.

However, SAGE warned people that it was not “conscientious” because it claimed that the virus was still likely to multiply.

SAGE said in a statement: “There are some early signs that suggest an epidemic expansion, May We believe it is too early to draw attention and draw firm conclusions as SAGE is slowing down.

“More data is needed to accurately assess recent changes in infection, and it is still likely that the epidemic is expanding exponentially across the country.

“In the coming weeks, it’s important to understand this in the UK and not be complacent.

“Furthermore, the rate of change is May If R remains above 1.0, infection continues to grow exponentially.

“This is now the case in all parts of England, all showing positive growth rates, reflecting the increasing number of new infections across the country.”

R rate for each region of the country

Region, R rate range, Range of “growth rate” per day (%).

R is the number of people who get sick from each person on average at Covid-19.

It declines as people follow the rules of social distance and rises as people have more contact.

The higher the R-value, the faster the virus will double its spread throughout the community. This is known as exponential growth.

Above 1 the spread of the virus increases daily, below 1 the number of new cases decreases.

The National Bureau of Statistics has “some limited evidence” that the surge in new cases in early September has now leveled off and may be stable at new, higher levels of new cases per day. After saying there is.

There were an estimated 8,400 new cases per day in the UK community during the week leading up to September 24, while an estimated 116,600 were infected in total during the week.

It affects an estimated 103,600 people in total, compared to an estimated 9,600 new cases per day last week.

These numbers may suggest that the virus is no longer in control in the UK after the Prime Minister introduced new restrictions, including the “Rule of 6”.

But the National Bureau of Statistics warned: “A wide confidence interval means premature to say.”

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