Michigan is again facing a “high risk” of virus outbreaks in a second wave of concerns, data show

One research group has labeled Michigan as “high risk.” Coronavirus Outbreak as cases of COVID-19 began to increase rapidly throughout the state.

A group of technicians, epidemiologists, health professionals and public policy leaders Covid Act Now Identifying state risk levels for the recent exacerbation of the COVID-19 epidemic in most parts of the United States

On Thursday, Michigan’s risk level for coronavirus outbreaks increased from “medium risk” to “high risk” for the first time since. July 31.. According to the data, the new risk levels in the state are mainly due to the increasing infection rate and the rapid increase in new daily COVID-19 cases.

Michigan was previously labeled as experiencing “controlled disease growth.”

Like most other states, Michigan’s risk of coronavirus epidemics is constantly changing due to volatility such as COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and contact tracing over the past few months.

Reported on July 31st Michigan status is “Risk of occurrenceTo experience “slow growth of illness”.Status Initially moved to a higher risk level On July 8, the number of COVID-19 cases increased and contact tracing decreased throughout Michigan.

Since then, the state has maintained moderate risk levels and has again shifted in the undesired direction until October 8.

Infection rate

As of Sunday, the data show that Michigan currently has Infection rate It means that each person infected with -COVID-19 of 1.12 is infected with 1.12 others. The state’s prevalence increased in July and then improved throughout August, but began to increase again throughout September.

The infection rate in Michigan was 0.99 August 26, 1.06 on July 31, 1.21 on July 19 And 1.14 on July 8..

Covid Act Infection rate is “serious” If it exceeds 1.4. Michigan’s current prevalence of 1.12 is considered “high,” contributing to the worsening risk status of virus spread in Michigan.

Daily new case

Another factor contributing to Michigan’s high-risk condition is the number of new COVID-19 cases recorded daily for every 100,000 people.

on Sunday, Covid Act Now Report In Michigan, 11.7 new COVID-19 cases are recorded daily for every 100,000 residents. This is the number that the research group considers to be “high.”

According to the group, numbers above 1 are considered “medium” and numbers above 10 are considered “high”. The state is in a “serious” state if more than 25 new cases are reported for every 100,000 residents.

on August 26, Michigan reported a median rate of 7.1 new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day for every 100,000 residents-improvements from July 31st 7.3.. Data show that the percentage of new daily cases in Michigan peaked at 16.1 on April 7.

Group data is consistent with coronavirus case and mortality data Reported by Michigan..

Michigan Currently experiencing the largest surge in COVID-19 cases Since the pandemic began. On Saturday, the state reported A total of 134,656 confirmed viral cases have recorded an increase of 1,522 new cases since Friday. This is the highest daily increase since April 7th.

As of Saturday New case state 7-day moving average It has reached 1,020. This is the first time Michigan has recorded a moving average of over 1,000 7 days since April 17.

Click here for detailed data on Michigan COVID-19.

Contact tracing

Contact tracing in Michigan has been steadily declining since June, reaching its lowest point since the pandemic began.

Contact tracing Experts cite COVID-19 as an important factor in its containment, but the proportion of contact tracing in Michigan has declined significantly in recent months as virus cases continue to grow across Michigan. I will.

As of Sunday, Covid Act Now reports: Michigan is 18 percent contact tracing Number of new COVID-19 cases within 48 hours of infection-Health officials say they are inadequate to contain the virus. Experts recommend It At least 90 percent Of the new COVID-19 cases, the virus will be tracked within 48 hours.

“In Michigan, we have an average of 1,167 new cases daily, and our staff needs an estimated 5,835 contact tracers to track new cases to known cases within 48 hours of detection. The best available. According to the data, Michigan has 1,050 contact tracers that meet 18% of this staffing requirement. ” The report says:.. “Insufficient contact tracing staff may prevent Michigan from identifying and identifying the cause of the prevailing disease fast enough to prevent new outbreaks.”

State contact tracing below 20% is considered “low” and below 7% is considered “critical”. the study.. 10-90% are considered “medium”.

COVID-19 test

According to a Covid Act Now study, Michigan needs to extend the COVID-19 test to better contain the virus.

As of SundayAccording to the data, the “medium” positive test rate in Michigan is 3.3%. According to the group, this figure shows that the state is not testing as aggressively and extensively as necessary to identify new cases and better contain the virus.

The state previously had a “low” positive test rate of 2.3 percent on August 26-a slight increase from July 31 2.2%, But still 2.7% reported on July 19..

Michigan’s positive COVID-19 test rate dropped dramatically from May to early June and then gradually increased. The state saw the lowest positive test rate (0.9%) on June 10. Since then, the positive test rate has risen to 2.8 percent in July and fluctuated between 2-3 percent from August to September.

CovidAct considers test rate Above 3%, it is “medium” instead of low. 10-19% are considered “high” and 20-100% are considered “critical”.

Hospitalization due to virus

Even more positive, COVID-19 hospitalization has improved in Michigan since May. Until recently, virus hospitalizations have been steadily declining since May 13.

According to the research group, only about 16% of the ICU beds available in Michigan are currently used by COVID-19 patients, “having sufficient capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections. It is likely that there is. ” The report says:..

Covid Act Now states that hospitals in Michigan “are likely to be able to cope with the new wave of COVID.” This is good news given that experts are concerned that the United States may be at the beginning of a second wave of viral infections.

COVID-19 by Michigan County

Covid Act Now also categorizes data at the county level and assigns coronavirus risk levels to all counties in the state. According to the data, the majority of Michigan counties are considered to be at “moderate” risk of developing COVID-19.

In a previous report on August 26, most Michigan counties were labeled by the Covid Act Now as having a moderate risk of coronavirus spread and are experiencing high-risk or active outbreaks. Is almost nonexistent.

As of Sunday, many counties are transitioning to high risk or are experiencing active or imminent coronavirus outbreaks, especially throughout the upper and lower peninsulas of the southwestern half.

The UP Ruth, Houghton, Delta, Iron, Keweenaw, Menominee, McKinack, Dickinson, and Algiers counties are currently labeled as experiencing active or imminent outbreaks. Only Oscoda and Calhoun counties on the Lower Peninsula share this same label.

About half of the Lower Peninsula counties are experiencing controlled disease growth (yellow) and the other half are thought to be at risk of developing (orange). Wayne and Oakland counties (the two most affected by the pandemic) are experiencing particularly controlled disease growth, primarily due to reduced infection rates.

According to the research group, only Alpena County is believed to be “on track with COVID.”

• More detailed COVID-19 county data has been categorized by the Covid ActNow for all US counties in collaboration with the Harvard Global Health Institute and dozens more researchers and public health authorities. Click here to see.

Pandemic worsens nationwide

The epidemic of the coronavirus is exacerbating throughout the United States and is at high risk in most states, along with Michigan.

In total, 31 states are labeled as at high risk for COVID-19 outbreaks, and 13 states are considered to be experiencing active or imminent outbreaks. According to the data, only six states are considered to have a moderate risk of developing a coronavirus.

No state is considered to be on track to contain the virus.

To Last report on August 26thMost states have been labeled as having a moderate risk of developing a coronavirus, and more states have been considered low risk.

Six states, including Ohio, also saw a record day increase in COVID-19 cases on Saturday, raising new concerns that the country might be at the top of a second wave.

“We are very afraid of what we are heading for and what we are starting to see in the hospital.” Dr. Megan Lanny of Brown University said.. “We are all deeply afraid that this is the beginning of that terrifying second wave.”

Europe is currently experiencing a second wave of COVID-19..

Lanny said doctors across the country are beginning to see more severe cases. The second wave warning occurs the day after health authorities report the most new COVID-19 cases in almost two months.

“We saw a surge in the number of mostly young people returning to college,” Ranny said. “But what we are seeing now is that it is beginning to spread within the community.”

According to an updated coronavirus prediction model, 395,000 people could die in the United States by February, which is President Trump predicts..

? Become an insider ?

Introducing WDIV Insider: A new way for loyal local 4 fans to access and customize the ClickOnDetroit news experience. This new and free membership is a way to say thank you and participate in news actions. WDIV Insider Get exclusive access to Local4 teams and stations, including personalized messages, offers and deals for big events, and high-pitched voice in news coverage. For more information on WDIV Insider, sign up here.