Health
The adviser argues that the government would have faced a “concealment” claim to the Covid variant.
The best scientific adviser defended the government’s decision to reveal evidence suggesting that the UK’s coronavirus mutant is more deadly, but said the news needed to be “outlooked.” It was.
Professor Peter Horby, chairman of the government’s New Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (Nervtag), said authorities could have been accused of “hiding it” if the information was not disclosed. ..
It follows a press conference in Downing Street where Boris Johnson said the new mutant strain may be associated with “higher mortality.”
Professor Hobby told the BBC Breakfast on Saturday that the strain was “very very small” for most people, although there were signs that the strain was at high risk of death.
“Early data did not suggest that this was more serious than the old virus, but the data started to come in and there were several streams of incoming data, which could increase the risk slightly. It suggests that death, “he said.
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“There are some limitations to the data, so we need to be careful in interpreting it, but it’s important for people to understand that we’re seeing this, and this may be true.
“When viewed as a relative change like 30% or 40%, it sounds really bad, but a big change in very small risk makes it slightly big from a very small number, but still very very. In most cases people’s risk is very small because it is a small number.
“People need to take that into account. This is a risk for certain age groups, and that risk may be increasing, but for most people it is not yet a serious illness.”
When asked if the government could be accused of inciting fear by providing such data too early, Professor Hobby replied:
“Scientists are looking at the potential for increased severity … and after examining the data for a week, they came to the conclusion that it was a realistic possibility.
“We need to be transparent about it.
“If we didn’t tell people about this, we would be accused of hiding it.”
Other scientists say it is still an “unanswered question” whether the new coronavirus mutant is more deadly.
Graham Medley, a professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine, told the BBC’s Today program that the new strain was not a “game changer” in dealing with pandemics. Told.
“I think the question of whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality is still open,” he said.
“There is evidence that it is more dangerous, but this is a very dangerous virus.
“It’s not a game changer in terms of making things worse. A little bad is very bad.”
Dr. Yvonne Doyle, director of health care at the UK Public Health Service, said more work is needed to see if the variant is more deadly.
“There is some evidence, but it’s very early evidence. The number of cases is small and it’s too early to say that this actually happens,” she said today.
Professor Horby warned that in the future, full control of other international coronavirus variants would be “almost impossible”, but certain measures would slow them down.
But he agreed that the UK would be safer “from a scientific point of view” if more steps were taken.
“Sure measures such as stricter quarantine and longer stays in hotels have implications, and it is up to the government to decide whether imposing them deserves the benefits they are likely to see,” he said. Told.
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