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The number of US Covid-19s may be slowing, but experts predict tens of thousands more deaths in the next three months

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COVID-19 Trends may be promising in the last few weeks — but new forecasts have provided harsh memories that the United States is unclear.

Over 497,500 Americans Dead Of Covid-19.

An additional 91,000 Americans are estimated to die from the virus by June 1. forecast From a show at the Institute for Health Metrics, University of Washington.

The catastrophic prediction is that the number of Covid-19s has plummeted across the United States, causing several causes. Local and state leaders to relax regulations — Experts warn at once It is important to pay attention and continue to take safety measures.

“The most uncertain factor in the epidemic trajectory over the next four months is how individuals respond to the steady decline in everyday cases and deaths,” said the IHME team. I have written. “A more rapid increase in mobility or a decrease in mask use can easily lead to an increase in cases and mortality in many states in April.”

The spread of the Covid-19 variant Also threatened to cause another surge in cases — In particular, the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the UK.Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warning He added that of the “rapid growth” of this variant predicted across the United States in early 2021, it is likely to become the dominant variant in the country by March.

IHME team I have written Currently, B.1.1.7 variants can account for less than 20% of infections, but the number can jump to 80% by late April.

That’s why experts say the United States should also step up its tests. This is to track not only infections and antibodies, but also variants.

“We have been behind the test since day one,” said former Secretary of Health and Welfare Kathleen Sebelius on Saturday. The United States now needs to focus on both the tests needed to determine who has the disease and the serological tests that give a closer look at the antibodies and what mutants are circulating. ..

5.5% of the US are fully vaccinated

Vaccination is underway, but it is unlikely to help the United States reach herd immunity levels soon.

So far, more than 42.8 million Americans have received at least the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. CDC data.

Over 17.8 million people are fully vaccinated. This is about 5.5% of the US population.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of the population has acquired immunity to an infectious disease — either by infection and recovery, or by vaccination. Dr. Anthony Fauci estimates that 70-85% of the US population needs to be immune for herd immunity to be effective against the virus.

The IHME team wrote that it does not expect the country to reach herd immunity by next winter.

“The model suggests that we should have a quiet summer,” IHME director Dr. Chris Murray told CNN on Friday. “But we know that Covid is really seasonal, so when the next winter comes, we need a much higher level of protection than we can achieve.

According to another expert, the United States should consider delaying the second dose of the vaccine, at least to speed up the weaponization of the first dose.

“Everyone needs a second dose, and there is no doubt about it,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, Dean of Public Health at Brown University, on Friday. “I think the problem now is to wait 4 weeks between the first and second doses. What if I did it for 6, 8 or 10 weeks? Not longer.”

In his comment, two senior U.S. officials, Andy Slavitt and Fauci, senior advisers to the White House Covid-19 response team, said the U.S. should not delay or skip the second vaccination. It was. Jha states that his proposal is a midpoint for rapid vaccination of people at higher risk.

Teachers’ unions call the CDC guidelines “safety guardrails”

Amid ongoing challenges to vaccination and growing concerns about another case, local leaders are also working to navigate what a safe return to class looks like.

School reopening guidelines Released from CDC this month Focus on five major Covid-19 mitigation strategies. Universal and correct wearing of the mask. Physical distance; wash hands; clean the facility and improve ventilation. Contact tracing, quarantine, quarantine.

Vaccines and tests are an “additional layer” of protection, officials said.

CDC Director on Friday.Dr. Rochelle Warrensky I told the White House briefing These strategies can open schools, no matter how widespread the virus is in the community.

“… There are face-to-face learning opportunities at every stage of community expansion,” Walensky said. “I encourage you to actually lean on school and consider what you need … trying to get more and more children back to school.”

Randy Weingarten, president of the American Teachers’ Federation, told CNN on Saturday that the agency’s guidelines are “safety guardrails” for teachers. In a recent poll, most educators said it was okay to return to class with the help of a test. , Vaccine prioritization and mitigation strategies are in place.

But so far Only about 28 states and Washington DC, All or some teachers and school staff are now vaccinated.

Weingarten added that schools face another challenge when it comes to resuming face-to-face instruction.

Weingarten says schools will need more space and more educators if they implement some of these measures, such as smaller classes and social distance.

“The reason there are so many hybrid locations is that there is no space and no educators,” she said. “The real question now is how to help and turn things around in remote areas.”

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