Achieving herd immunity on CT is “really difficult” despite COVID vaccination efforts

But the question is whether it is feasible, despite the ongoing progress of the state’s vaccine program.

For example, Bridget Resiza cannot be vaccinated against COVID, according to the advice of a doctor.

“My cardiologist advised patients like me not to be vaccinated because there wasn’t enough research to understand how it affects my heart. “She said.

Four years ago, Lesizza suffered four consecutive cardiac arrests. Later, she was found to have Brugada Syndrome, a disturbed heart rhythm, and dangerous fluid buildup around the heart.

“They found me vaccinated against the flu,” said Resiza, who owns Fairfield’s Reef Shack. “Vaccination can cause water to build up around your organs.”

She is not against vaccination. On the contrary: she encourages her social circle to be vaccinated. “We were joking” Get vaccinated for me! Do it for the bridge! “

In fact, Lesizza doesn’t face the prospect of the rest of her life behind the mask because she wants enough people in Connecticut and the United States to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

“I’m vaccinated, building herd immunity and funding people who continue to live without masks,” she said. “Emotionally, it will cost me too much.”

Definition of immunity

Herd immunity, or herd immunity, which UConn Health’s David Banach said is a level of immunity high enough to prevent the transmission of an ongoing infection, is a rather moving target.

“I think we know that at least neutralizing antibody-based immunity lasts for at least six months,” said Banach, an infectious disease specialist and hospital epidemiologist at UConn Health. “I don’t know if it will be 6, 12, or 18 months, but it will take at least 6 months.”

There are several complex factors. Some people inside and outside Connecticut have refused vaccination, and children under the age of 16 are not yet eligible. Adding people who have been vaccinated and those who are not naturally infected with the virus may not be enough to prevent the transmission of the virus.

“I think it will be difficult for the entire state and the whole country to achieve population-level immunity, and as you know, we live in a global world,” Banach said. “I think it’s really hard to get there in the current orbit.”

The target number is 85%. According to Pedro Mendes, a professor of computational biology at UConn, those who must be immunized in a particular population to prevent transmission of the virus “when given a new, more infectious variant”. Is the number of.

“Given that all the variants are confused, it’s now much harder to estimate,” he said. “Therefore, it might be wise to say 80-85 percent.”

He estimates that 46 percent of the states are immune, including those who have been vaccinated or have recovered from COVID.

“The key vaccination levels for achieving herd immunity are not known exactly, but must be in the 75-85 percent range,” Mendes said. “Therefore, this is difficult to achieve without vaccination of children under the age of 16 (which make up nearly 20% of the population). Obviously, adults who refuse vaccination also make it difficult. “

Global and local

According to Balcezak, stopping or simply reducing viral infections is important to prevent the emergence of new, potentially more infectious and deadly variants. The more chances the virus replicates, the more likely it is that a variant that evades immunity will emerge.

“It will eventually pave the way for the United States,” he said. “There is no way these things can close your boundaries.”

Therefore, reaching the world’s population forgiveness “depends on what we decide as a nation and as a world,” says Barsesack.

Banach believes that there is no immediate chance of reaching herd immunity on a global scale, or even state-wide.

“Herd immunity is usually classically defined as state or national population-level immunity and is very difficult to achieve,” he said.

However, on a small scale, at the town-wide level, it is theoretically possible that enough people will be vaccinated to limit the transmission of the virus.

“Within a community, for example, given a town, it is possible to achieve a sufficiently high percentage of immunity, and the risk of spreading within that town is well suppressed,” said Banaha. “There are significant differences in vaccination rates between Connecticut towns. It’s very impressive that some towns are vaccinated at very high levels of over 70% and some are much lower. Is the target. “

Community-level immunity is perfect for Lesizza.

“I live at the community level,” she said. “Community level is more important because it’s the way we all live.”

If you have no immunity, reduce infection

According to Banach, success is not an all-or-nothing proposal. All individual vaccinations reduce the ability of the virus to infect and replicate.

“Just because we can reduce infections doesn’t mean that a certain percentage of the population is immune,” he said. “I think increasing vaccination still has benefits in reducing infections. Even if total population immunity cannot be achieved, increasing immunity levels can affect infections, especially in certain communities. I can do it.”

Balcezak has a little more hope. “When it comes to vaccination capacity, it’s not over yet,” he said.

According to Balcezak, vaccination has barriers that include both hesitation and access issues, but it may also be an encouraging factor.

“Population immunity can only be achieved if children can be vaccinated,” Mendes said, and some progress has been made in that regard.

Some universities require students to be vaccinated to return to campus in the fall. The US Food and Drug Administration is considering a proposal to vaccinate children up to the age of 12. Research is underway to investigate the possibility of vaccination of children up to 6 years with COVID-19.

There is a vaccination obligation, but there are also incentives. Some businesses and states offer incentives to get vaccinated against COVID.There are several restaurants in Connecticut Offer free drinks.. In West Virginia, Status We offer $ 100 savings bonds.

“It could be a combination of everything that gets us over that hump,” Barsesack said. “A year later, you wouldn’t be surprised if you had a completely different conversation.”