Is the UK heading for a super cold winter?

Why does the common cold season occur and when does it usually occur in the UK?

Each winter there is a cold and flu season when cases of respiratory viral infections increase. These winter respiratory viruses include flu viruses, which can cause serious infections, and rhinoviruses, which cause milder colds, but there are also many other respiratory viruses that spread in winter.

The cold and flu season in the UK usually runs between October and March and coincides with the onset of winter weather. There are three major reasons for this increase in seasonal respiratory viral infections.

First, many viruses that are spread in the air by aerosols and respiratory droplets survive and spread better in cold, dry weather. Second, behavior tends to change in winter as people spend more time indoors, where respiratory viruses are more transmitted. Finally, for many people, low vitamin D and melatonin levels in winter make their immune system work poorly.

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How have COVID restrictions affected the cold season?

The 2020-2021 winter cold and flu season recently had the lowest rates of respiratory viral infections in history. We believe this dramatic decline is due to the COVID-19 precautions we took last winter. COVID-19, like the flu and many winter cold viruses, spreads through the air.

Because of this, measures that are very effective in reducing the transmission of COVID-19, such as face masks, indoor ventilation, physical distancing, and hand hygiene, are also effective in reducing the transmission of many other respiratory viruses, and their use has helped prevent the spread of such mild colds as we did last year. flu season.

What is a super cold?

The question many of us are asking right now is what to expect in the coming winter, given that the use of COVID-19 precautions has been largely phased out in the UK. It has been suggested that we could see a super cold and flu season. It is likely that this winter will see a strong cold and flu season where typical strains of the cold and flu virus are prevalent.

In this situation, a flu infection can still be very serious, but the infection isn’t necessarily more severe than a typical winter. This could happen because our herd immunity to typical cold and flu viruses has weakened over the past year, making more people susceptible to these viruses.

We are already seeing signs of an increase in respiratory viral infections in children, particularly the dangerous respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Over the past summer, we have seen high levels of RSV infection in areas where COVID-19 precautions have been eased. Levels of RSV and other respiratory viruses are very likely to continue to rise over the coming winter in areas with no mitigation measures.

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Another concern is that there are super strains of cold or flu viruses that will spread better or cause more serious illness, as we’ve seen with some strains of COVID-19. There are no special super colds we should be concerned about, but viruses like the flu continue to change and evolve throughout the year. So the version of the flu virus we’re seeing this winter could be more serious or contagious than anything we’ve seen before. But there is no reason to assume that it will.

This year’s flu strain will be as mild as possible from the past few years. A bigger concern is co-infection. Research shows that co-infection between the flu and COVID-19 is possible and can significantly increase the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease.

What’s the best way to protect yourself from catching or spreading a cold?

Regardless of the exact strains of cold and flu viruses circulating this winter, we know what to do to reduce the spread and protect ourselves. Wear a face mask in an indoor area, practice physical distancing, practice hand hygiene, have good ventilation in the room, and get both COVID-19 and flu vaccinations. All of these measures will also help prevent the spread of COVID-19, which remains highly contagious in the UK and has the potential to continue to pose risks to health and well-being throughout the winter.

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