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UK borrowing costs have hit their highest level this year as the gold sell-off intensifies.

UK borrowing costs have hit their highest level this year as the gold sell-off intensifies.

 


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The UK government bond sell-off intensified on Thursday as UK borrowing costs soared to their highest level this year on investor concerns about additional debt in Prime Minister Rachel Reeves' Budget.

The yield on 10-year government bonds rose 0.09 percentage points to 4.44%, previously exceeding 4.50%. The pound fell 0.8% against the US dollar to $1.286, the lowest in more than two months.

With government bond prices falling, Reeves said the Labor government's top promise was economic and fiscal stability, telling Bloomberg TV he had put in place strong fiscal rules and insisted there would be significant fiscal consolidation.

The move follows volatile trading on Wednesday as bond markets reacted negatively to a $28 billion annual borrowing increase outlined in Labour's first budget in 14 years. The Office for Budget Responsibility called this one of the largest fiscal unwinds in recent decades.

Ben Nicholl, senior fund manager at Royal London Asset Management, said some investors were concerned that the budget's assumptions were too optimistic and Reeves may have to raise more debt than expected.

“I think there are concerns that Labor will have to return to the bond markets in April to increase borrowing and raise taxes further,” he said.

The OBR noted high levels of uncertainty about the return on returns for a number of policies, including changes to non-state tax regimes, how interest is paid and inheritance tax paid on pension assets.

Figures from the Debt Management Office show debt sales this financial year will reach 300 billion, up from previous estimates of 278 billion and slightly above investor expectations.

Rising yields have pushed Britain's 10-year borrowing costs closer to a record high of 4.63% following Liz Truss' September 2022 mini-budget, which sparked a crisis in gold markets and sent the pound plunging to record lows.

But many other investors dismissed the similarities, saying much of the market's movement was due to changes in expectations about Bank of England interest rates.

Vivek Paul, chief UK investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said this does not look like a repeat of the market reaction to the 2022 Budget.

Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan told the Financial Times that the government had done a good job of balancing spending, borrowing and taxation to achieve its fundamental goal of growth.

While some business executives criticized the budget for its massive tax hikes, Venkatakrishnan said: We can all argue about little things. There is no perfect answer to this.

The OBR said on Wednesday that further borrowing was not fully anticipated by investors and that interest rates were likely to rise in the coming years.

JPMorgans Allan Monks said Labor's massive taxing, borrowing and spending decisions would boost near-term growth and inflation.

He added that the Budget changed the calculation of interest rate cuts.

The swaps market moved in line with prices over the next year with a slower rate of markdown. Investors are now expecting a third quarter point interest rate cut over the next 12 months. Before the budget they calculated four or five.

UK stocks fell as traders scaled back interest rate cut expectations. The FTSE 100 fell 0.6%. The more domestically focused mid-cap FTSE 250 index was down 1.5% after rising 0.5% in the previous session.

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