Hong Kong is fueling a new crisis in US relations with China

As Chinese observers and trade experts were happily discussing how to implement the first commercial phase and the transparency of coronavirus, more problems arose. The President’s Congress sent a bill on sanctions against the Chinese involved in the Uighur repression. There is also an invoice for Chinese companies to be removed from U.S. stock exchanges if they fail to comply with federal audit regulations. Finally, China’s intention to enact a new Hong Kong national security law that amounts to an earthquake further undermines ties. Developing issues seem to have pushed trade and coronavirus out of the front page right now.

Hong Kong’s work is the most comprehensive issue. It is important for China because it is clearly a case to break its commitment in 1998 to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy. It’s important for the United States because 85,000 American citizens live there, 1,300 American companies operate there, and hundreds of billions of dollars under management there. It is of course important for Hong Kong, which has long prospered as an Asian financial center with a rule of law government, an independent judiciary, a strong economy, and a dollar-linked currency.

As for what might happen, nothing is automatic. The United States’ insistence that it no longer considers Hong Kong autonomous opens the door for further US actions. Each of these must be taken separately. The United States can extend additional tariffs on China to Hong Kong, withdraw visa-free entry status, and apply the same level of export controls as China. All of these actions will be bad for Hong Kong business. It will lead to more Chinese revenge, which will inevitably harm the American companies there.

However, the biggest impact may have already occurred, and this is the blow Hong Kong will do, especially in the financial sector. Thanks to 100 years of British administration followed by more than 20 years of relative independence, Hong Kong has been a safe place for Americans and other Westerners doing business in Asia. Designing that it is basically no longer independent means that the idea is no longer correct.

The likely result is that many Western companies, especially financial institutions, will hedge their bets and divert some of their resources and at least some of their physical presence elsewhere. Taiwan has already announced that people leaving Hong Kong will be welcome there. Japan and Singapore will also be winners. But none of this will happen overnight. This would be like sand spilling out of the bag, though the bag was torn apart, and it was unlikely that it would be stitched together again.

This will not help the Chinese. If they believed, as some believe, that this work would move to Shanghai, they would be wrong. No one goes to a less secure place unless they have a choice. The result is the vulnerability of Hong Kong, affected China, and US companies with new problems. This has now happened because China is seeking some legitimacy from this measure.

China needs its legislature, now in session, to enact a law. If she does not take action, she must wait until next year. My colleague Bonnie Glaser was right when I suggested that the Chinese probably end the relationship with the United States not improve as long as Donald Trump John Trump says Fossey said his meetings with Trump have “ decreased significantly ” criticizing the capital’s mayor McEnany for not enforcing a previous curfew amid protests Stopping the annexation of Israel is a more American national security interest is the president, so they can move forward in achieving their strategic goals and allow the chips to land where they are.

In fact, there were more aggressive actions with the Uyghurs as well as in the South China Sea. Hong Kong is an integral part of Shi Jinping’s focus on strengthening the Communist Party’s control of all elements of its society there, even at the expense of great economic growth. The United States is likely to take some of the measures I have described above, or if it wants to reflect caution, it will take smaller steps to punish those individuals involved in implementing Hong Kong’s National Security Law.

Hong Kong should build a coalition of support and let the entire force of the international community put pressure on the Chinese who hate being strangers. Indeed, the United States has achieved much greater success through multilateralism than unilateral action. But the administration showed a lack of interest in the group approach. Look for penalties of some kind and the resulting economic harm to all concerned.

William Rench is Scholl Chair in International Business for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He was Undersecretary of the Department of Exports for the Department of Commerce under President Clinton.

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