Omicron’s “subvariants” are doubling in New York, just as mandates are lifted.

Just as New York’s case rate declines and authorities roll back to school and corporate health requirements, another coronavirus variant shows signs of disrupting state recovery from a winter COVID surge. I am.

Known as BA.2, the virus is a derivative or sublineage of the Omicron variant that has just hit New York State. It’s like a child’s sister, and some experts even call it “Omicron 2”.But it spreads About 30% faster From that brother — BA.1 — and Equally toughAccording to the World Health Organization.

According to data from the New York State Department of Health, BA.2 is rapidly moving to dominate relatives of the virus. BA.2 Proportionately doubling It occurs every two weeks throughout the state and is equivalent to about one of the 10 sequenced cases. This tendency is Similar data Edited by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the New York and New Jersey regions.

Given what New York experienced this winter, this pattern is daunting. Since the discovery of Omicron in late November, the state has recorded 2.2 million COVID-19 cases, the largest pandemic surge. Despite immunity to these infections and 75% of New Yorkers being fully vaccinated, BA.2 finds room for prosperity.

The question now is whether BA.2 will stay in the background as New York’s winter surge declines, or will the waves be as long as life is returning to normal. This sister variant has been known to scientists around the world since mid-November, but remains a bystander in some places. For example, when BA.2 struck Denmark this winter, it caused a second surge, raising daily deaths to a new summit just weeks after the country peaked with siblings. However, BA.2 has spread to the United Kingdom and South Africa without reversing the progression of the disease.

Some health experts believe that BA.2 does not do much harm in New York, as immunization rates in the area and have taken hold shortly after the last surge.

Dr. Bruce Faber, Head of Public Health and Epidemiology at Northwell Health, said: Responsible for infectious diseases at North Shore University Hospital and LIJ Medical Center. “People obviously have good immunity. It’s a very good immunity for 90 days. Probably a decent immunity for 6 months.”

However, other researchers are worried that BA.2 may prey on unvaccinated groups such as children and non-boostered people.Only 33% of New Yorkers amplifier shot. Few health care workers have taken additional doses from the state health department. Postponed execution of booster orders I quoted the fear of staff shortages because of this workforce.

Indeed, these Omicron variants are milder than their predecessor, the Delta variant, which caused havoc last summer.But they also 3-5 times more deadly than pre-delta variantsAccording to a recent study from the CDC.

“The proliferation of BA.2 subvariants could exacerbate the winter surge,” said Bruce Y. Lee, CUNY’s public health policy expert and executive director of research group PHICOR. “We know that the number of cases is decreasing, but we are still experiencing cases at a fairly high level.”

The risk of COVID-19 is considered low in most of New York State and five provinces, but its abundance is much higher than was seen at past low levels of the pandemic. For example, the state still has an average of about 1,800 cases per day. During the downturn last summer, this average was one-sixth.

The BA.2 subvariant also weakens the ability to treat this disease.Earlier this winter, the powerful brother was knocked out Two of the 4 monoclonal antibody drugs used To treat infections in high-risk individuals. Recent evidence from New York University BA.2 can bypass the third drugSotrovimab.

Dr. Sam Sculpino, Managing Director of Pathogen Monitoring at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Pandemic Prevention Institute, said:

On the positive side, such a breakthrough in vaccinated people is with BA.2. Overall reinfection looks rare..But all cases of coronavirus Provide an opportunity Onset of chronic symptoms, or long COVID.

Lee said New York cannot rule out the future potential of BA.2 at this time. He, other health professionals and city officials explained what people need to know in the meantime and how to determine if the area is out of control of the coronavirus.

Earlier this year, Gothamist reported on what the number of COVID tests was per day. Shrink faster than ever In New York City. The pattern has just deepened. The city started in February and conducted 60,000 PCR tests per day. By the end of the month, this number had been cut in almost half, with less than 40,000 tests per day.

The city has never seen such a test decline. This may be due to more people using home kits instead of going to the clinic, or less concern about mild but non-mild variants of Omicron.

Michael Lanza, a spokesman for the New York City Department of Health and Mental Health, said the department is still confident in its ability to monitor trends using current surveillance data. He said the city relies on multiple data lines to monitor community communication trajectories, including lab tests, hospital reports, and public health monitoring of emergency department visits.

City has We also adopted CDC’s new color-coded system. To determine the risk of severe illness in the community. This puts more emphasis on the hospital burden than the past practice of focusing primarily on case rates.

However, some health professionals are worried about the blind spots associated with this new system. That is, ignore the positive rate of the test, that is, the percentage of tests that indicate an infection and return.

“I’m worried that there may be no test positive rates here. One way to maintain the numbers is to not test,” said Columbia University’s infectious disease clinician and researcher. Dr. Daniel Griffin said: This Week’s Virology Podcast Saturday.

Test positives have been used to check for reduced COVID risk, as it provides a signal to determine that the community is overloaded with coronavirus infection when the COVID risk exceeds 5%. rice field.

Under the new color-coded system, regions can avoid testing below high-risk cutoffs.

“Well, it may keep you below the cutoff, but then you may be hit by these lagging indicators,” Griffin said.

To avoid the pitfalls of test drops, leaders and the general public can look to the sewer.Infected person shit When Pee Of the remains of the coronavirus genetic code, wastewater monitoring has been shown to be a reliable way to catch coronavirus spikes. In new york a few weeks ago.

“What we’ve seen is that there are signs of a two-week early warning,” said Dan Lang, a strategic operator of the New York State Department of Health’s Environmental Health Center. “when [coronavirus in] You can see that the amount of wastewater is starting to increase and that tendency is increasing. Two weeks later, the number of cases will increase. “

The New York State Wastewater Dashboard Coronavirus intensity has increased slightly in some areas around Warwick, indicating that most counties have improved.New York City does not report to the state dashboard, but is part of the national tracker Recently released According to CDC. The federal tracker hasn’t reported recent data from the five provinces, but the city’s health department says everything is going well.

“The wastewater monitoring data is in line with our clinical trial data,” says Lanza.

The New York City Department of Health reports an increase in childhood COVID-19 deaths since the beginning of the new year. Since then, the death toll of children in the city has increased by half a dozen from 29 to 35 during the pandemic process.

This rise occurs after several months of unrecorded deaths in this age group. Early OctoberThe city raised the tally to 30 before putting it back 1 month later 29.. Anyway, six deaths in two months, when the coronavirus didn’t kill children for nearly half a year, illustrates the intensity of Omicron’s surge.

“Any death is tragic, but even more tragic when it is one of our smallest New Yorkers. These deaths were associated with a surge in very large cases during the Omicron wave.” Said Lanza of the City Health Department. “Serious consequences are rare among children, but very high levels of infection and an unprecedented number of cases unfortunately have had some serious consequences among children. “

These deaths are a reminder of what happens when the community is unable to control the coronavirus. However, interruptions in the pandemic to education and business have also had consequences, and people are ready to move beyond the pandemic.Poll show The masses of New York are split About the removal of COVID restrictions. About half of the voters are ready to lose their indoor masks and half want to keep them.

However, as vaccination rates have stagnated and BA.2 remains in the background, Scalpino of the Rockefeller Foundation’s Pandemic Prevention Institute is worried that the country will be surprised again. He said last year’s turning point revolved around the mask obligations, which ended last summer, even though the United States failed to meet its vaccination goals.

People were told to live their lives if they were vaccinated, but many still lacked shots, so the Delta variant took off when everyone started mixing again.

“My biggest concern with BA.2 is that confidence in public health can be lost,” Scarpino said. “If I make this mistake again, I feel like I’m playing a tape that happened in the Delta variant.”

He said places like the UK could have escaped the BA.2 surge due to the high percentage of booster shots by the British (British) (50%) From the United States (28%). Another hypothesis is that places with large summer delta waves, such as the United Kingdom, may be more protected from BA.2 than places without them.

“There are many differences across the United States when it comes to the potential risks of the BA.2 variant,” Scarpino said. “It may not cause a national surge, but there may be a locally occurring surge — it can still lead to a surge in hospitalizations.”