Health
Why the number of influenza cases is increasing even though winter is over
- Seasonal influenza activity remains relatively low in the United States
- However, cases are increasing in some parts of the country.
- Experts do not know why the number of cases is increasing later in the season, but the termination of the mask obligation may play a role.
The flu season was mild, even though flu experts warned that for most of the time in 2020 and 2021, flu could cause serious recurrence after it went dormant. ..
Influenza has caused at least 3.5 million influenza illnesses, 34,000 hospitalizations and 2,000 deaths in the United States this season. This is a significant increase from last year’s record lows, but at a much lower burden than the pre-pandemic flu season.
We are at the end of the mild flu season, but cases are still growing
“In the last 38 seasons, influenza activity peaked only six times during March, so it’s unusual, but at this point it’s not unprecedented for influenza activity to rise,” Brammer said. I told Healthline.
Despite the recent increase in the number of cases, flu experts expect this year’s flu season to be boiled down in the coming weeks.
It’s unclear why influenza is on the rise later this season.
Some public health experts suspect that recent mitigation of mitigation measures such as face masks has contributed to the recent increase.
“Most of us thought that the number of cases here had increased slightly, smoldering at the end of this last season. Perhaps people took off their masks, went out for group activities and indoors. Going to restaurants and starting to return to business with worship services, concerts and face-to-face — all of these types of activities still present some opportunities for the spread of this respiratory virus. ” Dr. William SchaffnerSaid the medical director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
Throughout the 2021-202 influenza season, most influenza cases were caused by the H3N2 strain. This is usually more severe in the elderly.
At this point in the season, there is usually an increase in other influenza strains, but H3N2 is still predominant.
Another problem is that after the flu shot was developed last summer, H3N2 evolved and mutated, reducing the effectiveness of this year’s flu shot.
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According to Schaffner, this year’s shot provided little protection — it was off target.
Last year, infectious disease experts said this year’s flu season could be tough, as the population essentially lost a year of immunity due to the unusually mild flu season recorded in 2020 and 2021. I warned.
However, while more influenza was prevalent this season than in the 2020-2021 flu season, the flu burden (infection, hospitalization, death) is significantly lower than in the pre-pandemic flu season. increase.
Influenza was epidemic this season from November to January, but the number of cases has dropped sharply since then.
“Still, we’re all confused. We expected the flu season to be a little tougher, but suddenly the flu epidemic stopped,” Schaffner said.
CDC hospitalization rate during the week ending March 26, 2022
Hospitalization rates ranged from 52.5 to 96.1 per 100,000 people during the 2016-17-2019-20 season, Brammer says.
According to Brammer, the CDC had 9 to 41 million illnesses, 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations, and 12,000 to 52,000 deaths each season between 2010 and 2020 before the outbreak of COVID. Is presumed to have caused.
Schaffner expects influenza activity to disappear during April, as usual. However, it is difficult to predict how the flu season will progress.
“So, at this point, there were two mild flu seasons, and we still don’t know what this means for the next flu season from 2022 to 2023,” Brammer said.
Although the flu season was mild, flu experts warned that flu could have a serious resurgence after record low flu activity in 2020 and 2021.
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