New USGS – FEMA Report Updates Economic Risks from Earthquakes – ScienceDaily

Earthquakes cost the nation an estimated $14.7 billion annually in building damage and related losses according to a new report released today by the USGS and FEMA at the annual meeting of the American Seismological Society.

The new estimate is twice the previous annual estimate due to an increase in building value and the fact that the report includes the latest hazards as well as improvements to building inventories.

Earthquake losses from the past few decades in the United States have ranged from $1.5 to $3 billion annually depending on the time frame. While lower than the numbers suggested by the long-term loss estimates from this study, a single large earthquake affecting a populated urban area would quickly make up the difference in losses in one fell swoop.

“It is fitting that this report was released on the same date as the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906,” said David Applegate, director of the USGS. “It’s a sobering reminder of why we need to prepare for those rare but large earthquakes, when only one major event can mask the costs of more frequent but smaller earthquakes.”

Compared to previous estimates in 2001, 2008, and 2017, annual seismic loss rates have consistently decreased across the western United States, indicating that the ongoing work to reduce building vulnerability has proven successful. Although new construction benefits from up-to-date seismic codes and the latest scientific research and earthquake engineering, older, vulnerable buildings still carry many of the underlying risks that appear in the loss estimates.

“Total earthquake risk continues to outpace our country’s earthquake mitigation efforts,” said Kishore Jaiswal, a research civil engineer with the USGS. “In addition to optimizing new buildings, more attention can be given to improving earthquake risk and hazard research aimed at identifying and cost-effectively rehabilitating at-risk structures.”

Understanding how much earthquakes can cost the United States is a priority of the National Earthquake Risk Reduction Program and is critical to inform decisions about mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and financing. USGS science on earthquake risk and the latest Hazus 6.0 loss estimation software version from FEMA were critical components of this analysis.

“This study reinforces the nation’s need to be proactive about making communities safer from threats like earthquakes,” said FEMA Deputy Director Eric Hooks. “This includes adopting the latest seismic building codes and investing in earthquake-resistant projects. FEMA remains committed to supporting communities across the country through our various programs to reduce exposure not only to earthquakes but also to all natural hazards.”

Although most of the economic losses are concentrated in California and along the West Coast due to that region’s high levels of seismic hazard, large population, and exposure of buildings, earthquake hazards are spread throughout the country. For example, there is a total of $3.1 billion annually in projected losses across the central United States, the Rocky Mountain region, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

This reinforces the fact that earthquakes are a national problem.

The annual loss — the metric seismologists used in the report — is derived from a combination of earthquake risk, building exposure and vulnerability, and is therefore a long-term average. The annual earthquake loss ratio expresses the estimated annual loss as part of the building stock replacement value.

The new estimate includes a major nationwide effort to improve earthquake risk and exposure data for essential buildings now valued at $107.8 trillion that have benefited from the US Army Foundation of Engineers’ National Structures Inventory.

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