Health
Pamplin Media Group-New Oregon COVID-19 Forecast: Continued Growth
A 10% reduction in permeability is not sufficient to control the increase in severe cases with each OHA.
State health officials forecast the most severe COVID-19 hospitalization to increase from about 17 to 25 per day, even if Oregonians limit access and reduce coronavirus infections by 10% To do.
A new bi-monthly forecast report published by the Oregon Department of Health uses open source models from Seattle’s Disease Modeling Institute based on data through July 2.
Reports indicate that exponential growth may continue.
The release follows a set of records of new cases reported by the state.
Not surprisingly, in this report, Governor Kate Brown’s decision to reopen the state on May 15 led to a surge in infections, leading to 1.4 cases per confirmed case of coronavirus. It is reported that
If its infection rate remains unchanged, the number of serious cases leading to hospitalization will now increase from nearly 17 new hospital admissions per day to 49, almost tripled.
With only a 10% reduction in infections, the number of new hospitalizations will increase from about 17 to 25 per day, an increase of about 47%.
In contrast, a 10% increase in infection rates is projected to increase the number of new severe cases from 17 to 76 times per day, more than four-fold.
The prediction points out some caveats and states that there are a variety of possible outcomes. That number is simply the most likely of them.
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