GPS data can detect earthquakes hours before they happen – study

Current earthquake warning systems can only give a short window of notice, usually less than two minutes before an earthquake strikes – and in some cases warnings are not delivered until three to five seconds after the earthquake has actually started.

New research by scientists Quentin Pelletre, of France’s Côte d’Azur University, and Jean-Mathieu Noquet, of the Physics Planet Institute in Paris, may be the key to detecting earthquakes hours before they happen.

Earthquakes cannot currently be predicted, solely based on observations of past earthquakes and seismic activity in the area. These observations are analyzed and used to determine the likelihood of future seismic activity.

So earthquake early warning systems do not predict earthquakes, but instead detect ground movement once an earthquake has started. Warning alerts are sent immediately upon detection of ground motion, giving people in the vicinity crucial seconds to prepare and seek shelter.

While existing earthquake early warning systems can save lives, it has long been the goal of scientists to expand these systems and accurately predict when and where an earthquake will strike. Opinions differed in the scientific community as to whether seismic activity can be used to predict earthquakes or if they are natural events that are inherently unpredictable.

Damage in the city of Adiyaman after the 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Türkiye. (Credit: Wikimedia Commons) Possible predictions

French scientists Bletery and Nocquet discovered a pre-fault-phase slip that begins about two hours before an earthquake and believe it can be used to predict and early warnings of future earthquakes. The pair collected data from more than 90 magnitude 7 earthquakes that occurred over the past two decades and analyzed GPS records from the 48 hours before each of these earthquakes.

“Earthquakes are sudden sliding along faults that separate two tectonic masses,” Nouquet explained. “The initial phase is the window of time during which tectonic masses begin to move relative to each other, first slowly and then gradually accelerating to finally reach a rapid sliding velocity. The rapid sliding results in the seismic waves that cause the damage observed during major earthquakes.”

They note that in the first 46 hours, the records show no significant activity, however, in the two hours immediately preceding the earthquakes, there were signs of increased activity along the fault zones.

Bletery explained that this is indicative of a gradual and undetectable slip between tectonic plates that begins about two hours before the earthquake. This has the potential to act as an earthquake detector – but there is a catch.

“We can’t detect on a single earthquake scale, so we can’t make predictions,” Pelletri told New Scientist. “But it does tell us that something is going on, and if we make significant progress with the measurement—either the sensor itself, improving its sensitivity, or just having more of it—we can be able to perceive things and make predictions.”

Existing GPS systems do not have the sensitivity required to make predictions based on the surroundings of the studies. As Bletery pointed out, current GPS monitors can only make detections using the large data set compiled in the study but cannot make accurate detections at individual locations.

To do this, Pelletieri said, would require GPS sensors capable of detecting motions as small as 0.1 millimeter. In addition, many earthquake zones do not have sufficient technology to track whether patterns of seismic activity are consistent across large earthquakes.

“Although Bletery and Nocquet’s results suggest there may indeed be an hour-long precursor phase, it is not clear whether such slow accelerations are clearly associated with large earthquakes or whether they can be measured for individual events with the precision necessary to provide a useful warning,” writes Roland Burgmann, chair of the UC Berkeley Active Tectonics Research Group.

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