The trend of increasing strong earthquakes around the world deserves attention – Analysis – Eurasia Review

By Hu Jun

In recent days, large-scale earthquakes have occurred globally. On April 3, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck the eastern offshore area of ​​Hualien County, Taiwan, at a depth of 12 km. As of April 5, this earthquake has killed 12 people and injured 1,123 others, and 634 people are still trapped. On April 5, on the other side of the globe, a 4.8-magnitude earthquake occurred on the East Coast, about 60 kilometers from New York City, and about 5 kilometers deep. Although the strength of this earthquake was not great, it was the strongest earthquake to hit New York in 140 years, an area where large earthquakes rarely occur. In Japan, an earthquake measuring 6.1 on the Richter scale occurred off the east coast of Honshu on April 2; On April 6, another 5.3 magnitude earthquake occurred offshore of the east coast of Honshu, at a depth of 10 km.

If one looks at the longer time frame and scales up, it can be seen that there is an increasing trend of large-scale earthquakes occurring globally in the past year or two. On January 1 of this year, a large-scale earthquake occurred on the Noto Peninsula in Japan, with the strongest magnitude reaching 7.6. On January 3, a 5.5 magnitude earthquake occurred in Argentina; On January 4, a 5.7 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Fiji Islands.

According to data released by the China Earthquake Network Center (CENC), in 2023, there were a total of 129 earthquakes worldwide with a magnitude of 6 or higher, including 19 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or higher, the largest of which were two earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8. Earthquakes that struck Türkiye on February 6. If we look at earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or greater, they basically correspond to an average annual frequency of 18 times since 1900, which is much higher than the activity level of 7 earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or greater. Above in 2022. Global seismic activity for earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater shows a clear trend of moving from weak to strong. According to incomplete statistics, there were at least 12 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater worldwide in December 2023 alone.

From the temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes, the coastal areas of the Pacific Ocean and the Himalayan volcanic seismic zone are still the high-risk areas for global earthquakes. Currently, more than 90% of earthquakes worldwide still occur in this seismic zone. According to CENC statistics, 95% of global earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or more occurred in the Eurasian Seismic Zone and the northeastern boundary of the Australian plate in 2023. Among them, earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or more occurred 7 times in the Eurasian Seismic Zone and 11 times in the Northeastern Boundary. For the Australian plate. From January to June 2023, there were 14 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater globally, accounting for 73.7% of the total number of earthquakes throughout the year, demonstrating a relatively concentrated spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake activity.

According to data issued by the National Environmental Monitoring Center, in 2023 China witnessed a total of 18 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 or more. Among them, there were 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or higher on the mainland, including two earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher; There were 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or more in marine areas. Taiwan witnessed 3 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5 or more, the largest of which occurred on October 24 in the marine area of ​​Hualien Province, with a magnitude of 5.9. Some analysts have noted that earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater in Taiwan are significantly weaker, and seismic activity remains relatively quiet for earthquakes of magnitude 7. The level of seismic activity in China in 2023 decreased significantly compared to 2022 (26 events), recording the lowest overall frequency since 2000. In Taiwan, seismic activity with a magnitude greater than 7 has remained quiet for 17 years since the 7.2 magnitude earthquake A magnitude in the Hengchun Marine Area on December 26, 2006, the longest quiet period since 1900. The 7.3 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the eastern marine area of ​​Hualien Province on April 3 immediately broke the idea of ​​an extended quiet period for large earthquakes in Taiwan as suggested previously.

As a geological phenomenon, earthquakes are a type of geological activity that occurs frequently, and it seems difficult to accurately understand and determine the regularity of their occurrence and development. One notable aspect is the great debate over whether earthquakes can be “predicted”. Based on the incomplete understanding of researchers at ANBOUND, the prevailing opinion among China's seismic community is that earthquakes cannot be predicted. Therefore, since the accurate prediction of the Haicheng earthquake in the last century, it seems that the Chinese earthquake community has been reluctant to predict the earthquake and reluctant to take the responsibility of earthquake prediction and related research.

However, the complexity of accurate earthquake prediction does not mean that humanity is unable to study their patterns, nor does it mean abandoning earthquake prediction efforts entirely. Given the trend of large earthquakes that has intensified globally over the past two years, we may need to remain vigilant and aware of the increasing trend of strong earthquakes. Some earthquake experts believe that based on statistical data, the active period of earthquakes usually lasts about 10 to 20 years. While this may not necessarily mean that now is the period of active seismicity on a global scale, the active seismic period in China has not ended yet. Some experts also point out that since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, mainland China has not experienced any earthquakes of magnitude 7 or more in nearly 15 years. Through regular earthquake analysis, China faces a difficult seismic situation, which requires increasing attention to the trend of increasing large earthquakes and strengthening research efforts.

In the past few decades, globalization has continued to deepen, with improved free trade and supply chains allowing investments in manufacturing and services to be distributed globally. If there is a trend of increasing large earthquakes globally in the future, this will have a certain impact on the industrial investments and planning choices of multinational companies. For example, future capital and technology-intensive asset-heavy investments may need to consider the impact of earthquakes and other natural disasters. Similar investment schemes may focus more on avoiding areas with high seismic activity. Although large earthquakes are only a very rare natural disaster phenomenon, they still represent a risk in investment planning for some major industries with huge investments, and should be avoided as much as possible.

Final analysis conclusion:

It is clear from the statistical data that large earthquakes around the world show a clear trend of increasing their intensity. As for the trend of more frequent large earthquakes, relevant countries need to pay attention to this matter. For some major industries with huge investments, there should be more attention to the risks posed by earthquakes.

Hu Jun is a researcher at ANBOUND

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