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Stock Market Outlook: Rare Bullish Signal Issued, Hints at Further Upside
- A rare bullish stock market indicator just flashed, suggesting the S&P 500's rise will continue.
- The Whaley Breadth Thrust indicator was triggered due to a sharp increase in stock participation.
- The indicator has a 100% success rate over one year, with the S&P 500 generating an average return of 23%.
An extremely rare bullish stock indicator has just flashed, and it's a signal that suggests the S&P 500 The 61% bull rally that began in October 2022 still has room to run.
The Whaley Breadth Thrust indicator was triggered Tuesday after the S&P 500 saw a massive increase in the breadth, or participation, of gains among its non-mega-cap tech components.
It's the 15th time the indicator has flashed since the S&P 500's inception in 1950, according to data compiled by technical analyst Grant Hawkridge of AllStarCharts.
“The Whaley Breadth Thrust indicator is triggered when the number of five-day up stocks in the market exceeds the number of five-day down stocks by approximately 3 to 1,” Hawkridge said. explained on X.
In other words, this bullish indicator is triggered when a stock market rally moves from an extremely narrow situation to a very broad situation in a short period of time.
The combination of an interesting IPC report for the month of June, The prospect of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the possibility of a Donald Trump election victory in November have boosted small business stocks in a historic way.
The significance of the Whaley Breadth Thrust is that it has a 93% success rate at six months for the stock market and a 100% success rate at one year.
In other words, the stock market has never been this low a year after the Whaley Breadth Thrust effect was triggered.
The indicator has generated an average one-year return of 23% for the S&P 500, as well as a six-month average gain of 17.4%. Such a gain would lift the S&P 500 to nearly 7,000 points.
“This is another not-so-subtle hint that stocks want to go higher. Yes, it’s strange to see all these surges near all-time highs, as they typically occur at the end of bear markets. But we also understand that they’re triggered because many stocks haven’t really participated in the rally,” Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, told Business Insider via email on Wednesday.
The last time the Whaley Breadth Thrust signal triggered was on November 3. Since then, stocks have jumped nearly 20%. Before that, the indicator flashed in June 2020, January 2019, and September 2009.
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