US elections: Trump and Harris' paths to presidential victory | US Election News 2024

EXPLANER

As the US elections approach, we explore the Electoral College paths for Trump and Harris to secure the presidency.

In the US Electoral College, a candidate must receive at least 270 votes out of 538 to win the election.

Each state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes based on its population. Some states consistently favor one party, while battleground or swing states can change, making them crucial in deciding elections.

This election includes seven battleground states, totaling 93 electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). ).

How can Kamala Harris win?

Harris is expected to get at least 226 electoral votes in 19 states and the District of Columbia, with major contributions from California (54), New York (28) and Illinois (19).

To reach 270 electoral votes, Harris will need at least 44 of the 93 field votes.

The easiest path for her would be to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16), thereby securing 51 electoral votes and a Harris presidency. However, at the moment, she trails Trump in all three areas, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average of Pennsylvania, only very marginally, and Georgia and North Carolina by slightly larger margins.

Mathematically, Democrats have 11 possible ways for Harris to secure 270 Electoral College votes by winning just three of the seven battleground states, and another nine ways by winning four states. Winning at least five battleground states would secure the presidency for either candidate.

Here is the combination of three or four swing states Harris would need to win to reach 270:

How can Donald Trump win?

Republicans are expected to get at least 219 electoral votes in 24 states across the country, with major contributions from Texas (40), Florida (30) and Ohio (17).

To reach 270 electoral votes, Trump will need at least 51 of the 93 battlefield votes.

Just like the Democrats, the easiest path for him is to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16), thereby securing 51 electoral votes and bringing the Republicans to exactly 270 electoral votes for win the presidency. He is currently leading in all three states, according to polls.

If Republicans don't win all three of those states, then they need to win at least four of the seven battleground states to secure the presidency. Mathematically, the Republicans have 20 winning combinations from four states.

What happens if Harris and Trump end up tied?

There are three scenarios in which Harris and Trump could both reach 269 electoral votes.

This could happen if there are no surprises, with Harris and Trump getting their 226 and 219 electoral votes respectively, and the following results in battleground states:

Scenario 1: Democratic victory: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) Republican victory: Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16) and Michigan (15) Scenario 2: victory Democrats: Georgia (16) North Carolina (16) and Arizona (11) Republican Victory: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) Scenario 3: Democratic Victory: Carolina North (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) Republicans win: Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and Michigan (15)

If any of these results occur, a contingent election will be held in which the United States House of Representatives will determine the winner.

Each state delegation in the House would have one vote, and a candidate must receive a majority (26 out of 50) of the state delegation's votes to win.

The U.S. Senate would then choose the vice president, with each senator having one vote and a simple majority (51 votes) required to win.

The chart below highlights the winning combinations for each candidate.

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