Dengue fever cases hit record high, study says climate change is linked – NBC Los Angeles

• Nearly 12 million dengue cases have been recorded in the Americas this year, nearly triple last year's total.
• New research suggests climate change is responsible for nearly one-fifth of the world's dengue burden.
• According to our findings, that percentage could rise significantly in the future.

This year has been a very bad year for dengue fever. Approximately 12 million items The number was recorded in the Americas by October, nearly triple last year's total of 4.6 million.

A study presented Saturday at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene quantifies the role climate change has played in this trend, attributing nearly one-fifth of the existing dengue burden to rising temperatures. . NBC News reported.

The study found that if emissions continue at this pace, climate change could be responsible for a 60% increase in dengue incidence by 2050, with countries such as Peru, Mexico, Bolivia and parts of Brazil It is predicted that some regions will see a spike of up to 200%. .

Public health experts have been warning about global warming for years. enable the spread of mosquito-borne diseases It expands the geographic range in which insect vectors live and thrive, allowing them to inhabit new locations. Mallory Harris, a co-author of the new study and a postdoctoral fellow in the University of Maryland's Department of Biology, said her team's findings build evidence that climate change plays an important role in the spread of dengue fever. More broadly, she said the study highlights the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and certain health effects.

“Dengue fever is a growing health threat and can have very serious consequences, and that's something we need to be prepared for,” Harris said. “We should anticipate future outbreaks of this type of disease and think about how to respond to them.”

In the United States and its territories, More than 7,200 dengue patients The number of cases tallied so far this year has more than doubled Last year's total It was the highest amount since 2013.

In June, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a health advisory Warning about increased risk of dengue infection. The Monroe County Health Department announces the detection of two locally transmitted cases in the Florida Keys. issued an alarm The next month will take place itself. To date, Florida has recorded 53 locally acquired cases not related to travel to countries where dengue is endemic, according to the CDC. California has recorded 15 such cases.

But the majority of U.S. infections this year have occurred in Puerto Rico. declared a public health emergency in March Amid an alarming rise in dengue infections. More than 4,500 locally transmitted dengue cases have been reported in Puerto Rico, compared to fewer than 1,300 last year and an even smaller number the year before.

The new study, which has not yet been published or peer-reviewed, analyzed an average of 11 years of dengue temperature records and incidence data from 21 countries in Asia and the Americas. The researchers compared that data to simulations of what would have happened during that time period in the absence of human-induced climate change.

A news release about the findings said the resulting estimates are likely at the lower end of the spectrum due to a lack of dengue data in some regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. . Additionally, predictions for the southern United States are difficult given that the virus has only recently emerged as a regional threat.

Researchers have found that the mosquito that transmits dengue fever, called Aedes aegypti, transmits the virus most efficiently when temperatures are between 68 degrees Fahrenheit and 82 degrees Fahrenheit. They concluded that even if global greenhouse gas emissions were significantly reduced, the majority of countries analyzed would still see an increase in dengue fever due to climate change.

“If anything, this risk is going to increase, so we need to look at mitigation,” Harris said, suggesting a focus on vaccines and efforts to control mosquito populations.

The manufacturer of the only dengue vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration stopped producing the vaccine earlier this year. According to the CDC.

Dengue fever is a viral infection spread by mosquitoes. Here's what you need to know:

More than half of the people People infected with dengue fever viral feverasymptomatic. Most of the rest are experiencing mild symptoms, including fever, headache, joint pain, nausea and vomiting. Severe infections, which accounted for about 2% of cases in U.S. territories from 2010 to 2020, can cause bleeding under the skin, in the nose, in the urine or stool, or a sudden drop in blood pressure, according to the CDC. It can lead to death.

The disease is most common in locations with humid, tropical climates throughout Latin America.

Derek Cummings, Professor of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health “We all knew temperature was important, but how much and how important is it for the changes we're seeing?” It's about quantifying whether something exists.”

Presenting his research on dengue fever, Cummings said global vaccinations must be prioritized, mosquito populations better managed and hospitals and health care providers prepared for an increase in dengue cases. He added that he expected it.

Harris emphasized that the new research shows how the effects of climate change will affect different regions of the world differently.

“Historical climate change has had the greatest impact on the burden of dengue fever in places like Peru, Bolivia, and Mexico, but these places are not necessarily the hottest places overall. “It's not where deaths are increasing the most,” she said. “Even slightly cooler areas can have an impact and that needs to be considered as well.”

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