Understanding college football playoff scenarios

Forty names, games, teams and details making news in college football (post-Saban counseling available separately in Tuscaloosa):

Parity has collided with opportunity, and the result is the greatest seasonal madness we've ever seen. That's what Saturday meant in sports. This isn't quite 2007, when everyone lost two or more games the number 2 ranking was basically cursedbut it's not far away.

A 12-team College Football Playoff with a large group of good, not great teams has spread both playoff fever and vulnerability across the country. No fewer than five teams lost control of their playoff destinies on Saturday, a chain reaction that resembled a bunch of golfers on the leaderboard working their way through the back nine on Sunday.

Everyone threw up on their shoes.

But when the earth stopped shaking on Saturday night and fans stopped storming fields from Arizona to Florida, the playoff race was now downright orderly.

The bubble has all but disappeared. What remains are 13 options for 12 places. Of course, another weekend like this past one could reopen a Pandora's box of possibilities for teams with three losses in the tournament, but for now the invite list looks solid:

The Big Ten (1) sits on a four-team jackpot, having won the Oregon Ducks, Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers so far with a total of three losses between them. All four are favored by at least 17 points in their regular season finales. And given the lack of bubble teams, as many as three of them (Oregon, Ohio State and perhaps Penn State) could all afford a loss and still stay in the race.

The Southeastern Conference (2) has been reduced to three playoff teams after The Night That Drove Ol Dixie Down. The Alabama Crimson Tide's dismissal was the most shocking result of the day, as it was routed by an Oklahoma Sooners team that hadn't beaten an FBS team since September. Before that, the Mississippi Rebels completed the triple crown of tough losses: the Kentucky Wildcats, the LSU Tigers and now the Florida Gators fell out of contention. And the nightcap was the Texas A&M Aggies' four-overtime loss to an Auburn Tigers program that has been a dysfunctional mess for five seasons but is always capable of causing some chaos at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

What remains: the Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers. Georgia has already clinched a spot in the SEC championship game and will play the winner of Texas-Texas A&M. Tennessee, after its fans and some media outlets that cover the team prematurely talked about Indiana last week, had the path paved by its SEC peers. Texas is in on the strength of its record at this point, not its resume.

(Texas A&M could play another interesting role that disrupts the bracket. More on that later.)

The Atlantic Coast Conference (3) It could now be a two-bid league, taking advantage of the SEC's cannibalization, if both the SMU Mustangs and Miami Hurricanes reach the title game at 111. But there is a third option and the only lurking bubble team in the 92 Clemson Tigers. They have a quality win opportunity on Saturday against the rival South Carolina Gamecocks, which could give them a chance even if they don't make it to the ACC Championship Game.

Best-case scenario for the ACC: SMU or Miami wins the league at 121; the loser of a close title game ends at 112; and Clemson finishes at 102. If an upset next week puts a team currently in the bracket in jeopardy, the ACC could have a shot at three teams.

Another factor that could keep the leagues afloat: a strong performance in four rivalry games against the SEC this weekend. In addition to Clemson-South Carolina, the Louisville Cardinals play Kentucky; the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets play Georgia; and the Florida State Seminoles play Florida (don't get your hopes up for that, ACC).

The Big 12 (4) is very similar to a major league, and even its champion could fall outside the protected top four that earns first-round byes. The two teams at the top of the standings both went from the Colorado Buffaloes to the Kansas Jayhawks and the BYU Cougars to the Arizona State Sun Devils at the same time Saturday afternoon, with the latter ending a two-field carnival. That was peak Big 12.

There are still nine, yes, nine teams that have a chance of winning the title match in the final weekend. Arizona State (92) and the Iowa State Cyclones (92) have the inside track, but chaos never sleeps in this league.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5) has a road game against the rival USC Trojans on Saturday. Never say never, but the Irish have been playing at a much higher level than USC over the past two months. It's possible Notre Dame (101) could even absorb a loss and stay in the bracket, but that would be tempting fate.

The Group of 5 (6) champion is a lock, with the Boise State Broncos solidifying their status as the top contender. They will be in the Mountain West Conference title game, likely against the UNLV Rebels. But to retain status as a primary G5 team, they must also beat the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday. UNLV or the Tulane Green WaveArmy Black Knights winner of the American Athletic Conference title game loom as alternatives.

So the most likely group at this point consists of four from the Big Ten, three from the SEC, two from the ACC, one from the Big 12, Notre Dame and the G5 autobid. But there's another scenario that regularly plays a role in the NCAA basketball tournament: messenger (7).

The potential bid thief is Texas A&M. Right now the 83 Aggies are out. But if they beat Texas and Georgia in the SEC title game on Saturday, they would clinch the automatic SEC slot and knock someone else out of the field. If A&M makes it to Atlanta, Indiana and Texas might be the two teams that compete the hardest against them.

Other bracket dynamics that appear to be developing:

There will probably be several games in cold weather (8). If Oregon wins the Big Ten, Ohio State and Penn State could host first-round games on campus on Dec. 20 or 21. Notre Dame is positioned to do the same. Fans in those regions have longed for warm-weather teams in their backyards for winter football, and this could be their chance.

Among those who would be least excited about a potential snow-and-cold road game: Miami and Arizona State. They don't winter in those places. The best outcome for both the Hurricanes and Sun Devils would be to win their leagues' automatic bids and hope that puts them in the top four, earning a first-round bye and a trip to a bowl site for a quarter final. Three of them are indoors (the Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl) and the fourth is in Southern California at the Rose Bowl.

Texas (9) seems the most likely free faller at a loss. Right now, the Longhorns lead the SEC at 61st and 101st overall, but they also don't have any quality wins. If they lose to Texas A&M on Saturday and miss the SEC title game, they could fall behind the other two-loss playoff teams, perhaps also behind a 102 Clemson. Beating the Aggies would at least put something on the resume, and if Texas finishes at 112 with both losses to Georgia, that's probably good enough to stay in the field.

So yes, the resumption of the Lone Star State rivalry in College Station, Texas, is simply huge for several reasons.

If the Dashs' current streak comes to fruition in two weeks, we will have playoff teams that lost to the Northern Illinois Huskies (10), Arkansas Razorbacks, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Cincinnati Bearcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders. Parity meets opportunity, indeed.

Dash's current playoff structure. As always, this is based on the premise that today is Selection Sunday, and not a projection of what it will be. The Dash is slowly warming up to Penn State, but isn't nearly as enamored as the selection committee or the pollsters:

1. Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
2. Georgia (SEC champion, automatic bid)
3. SMU (ACC Champion, automatic bid)
4. Boise State (Group of 5 champion, automatic bid)
5. Ohio State (large selection)
6. Notre Dame (large selection)
7. Texas (large selection)
8. Penn State (large selection)
9. Tennessee (large selection)
10. Miami (large selection)
11. Indiana (large selection)
12. Arizona State (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)

On the bell: Clemson.

First round games: The state of Arizona and the state of Ohio; Indiana at Notre Dame; Miami, Texas; Tennessee at Penn State.

farewell to the first round: Oregon, Georgia, SMU, Boise State.