Herd immunity does not defeat COVID-19

At a “town hall” -style event on ABC News on September 15, US President Donald Trump told host George Stephanopoulos that COVID-19 would “go away” without the vaccine. “Like the spirit of a flock, it will develop the flock. It will develop the flock, and it will happen,” Trump said.

What Trump mentioned and misnamed is the herd immunity. This occurs when many of its members are infected or vaccinated against a particular infectious disease, and resistance breakwaters counter the spread of the infectious disease. However, developing a pandemic response strategy based on the assumption that herd immunity is unavoidable-with or without vaccine-is to provide the virus with the least resistant pathway. That was the case in Sweden, and policymakers decided to abandon the blockade and business closure in favor of more generous advice on wearing masks and social distance.

Not surprisingly, Sweden’s subsequent COVID-19 infection and mortality rates were one of the highest in the world. In addition, the Swedish economy shrank 8.6% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the last three months. This is an important result to note, given that many proponents of herd immunity focus on reviving economic growth. One such supporter is Scott Atlas, Trump’s recently appointed pandemic adviser, who advocated the so-called Swedish model on Fox News.

“I like the fact that there are many incidents,” Atlas said in an interview. “That’s exactly how to get herd immunity, herd immunity.” Atlas has no epidemiological qualifications or experience, but as the president’s remarks about the “herd spirit” make clear, he listens to the president. Seems to have. On August 31, Trump made a comment-but evasive-as well pointed out in Fox News’ Laura Ingraham. “When you reach a certain number, you use the word flock, right?” He said. “When you reach a certain number, it’s gone.”

There is only one problem. For coronavirus, there is no “specific number”. According to a six-year study conducted in Kenya, decades of research have shown that the coronavirus that causes a particular cold can infect a person more than once, three to four times. The degree is also established.

In the case of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, the causes of the last two deadly coronavirus outbreaks, long-term studies have been sparse and underfunded and have failed to verify their ability to reinfect. However, two scientific case studies (one in Hong Kong and one in Nevada, USA) have already shown that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 can be re-infected. Confirming. Individual.

These studies show that our immunity to coronavirus is surprisingly short-lived and quickly declines. This is an extinct act that makes building a defense against SARS-CoV-2 difficult enough for individuals, let alone the entire population.

The day after Trump’s ABC News Town Hall, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow released figures on how herd immunity works in the United States, which has a population of about 330 million. As stated by Soumya Swaminathan, Chief Scientist of the World Health Organization, if at least 65% of people need to be infected to reach herd immunity, that means 215 million COVID-19s nationwide. I will. If the case fatality rate in the United States remains as it is (nearly 3%), it also means 6,385,500 deaths.

I used to call herd immunity a “reckless and ineffective strategy.” COVID-19 reinfection is a reality, not just a possibility, so we add “fatal” to the description.

“The White House no longer recommends that the state do anything to stop the spread of the virus, just a few weeks ago when they told the state that they needed to do it.” Madou said. “When (Trump) is not only saying, but also what he is doing, we must recognize this as a big deal.”

White House spokesman Cary McKennie and Atlas themselves have categorically denied that the US government has adopted herd immunity as a strategy. However, he continues to ridicule, avoiding the same basic precautions as wearing a face mask, and the words and actions of his boss who tested positive for COVID-19 tell a different story. If you call it herd immunity or “group spirit”, science remains the same. For coronaviruses, such an approach is not an option and should never be an option.

The author, a scientist, biotechnology entrepreneur, and infectious disease expert, is the chair and president of the global health think tank ACCESS Health International.

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