Health
Researchers expect deaths to increase until April, even with the COVID-19 vaccine
Potential news COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears The vaccine has brought hope that the pandemic in front of us will be put to an end. New projections from the Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) at the University of Washington show that the country has not yet left the forest.
Researchers last week unveiled a new model that predicts about 539,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States by April 2021, a dramatic increase of more than 255,000 from current deaths. ..
New projections show that the vaccine will not lead to a significant reduction in daily deaths until spring.
“The massive scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a way back to normal life, but there are still months to come,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME. Said. “As our predictions show, we must be careful to protect ourselves until at least April, when the vaccine begins to affect us.”
Vaccine distribution has been a hot topic in the last few weeks. Washington will receive about 62,400 Pfizer vaccines this month if the vaccine is approved by the Food and Drug Administration. This requires two doses every 21 days.
The state is expected to receive 200,000 doses by the end of December, with regular weekly shipments scheduled to begin in January 2021, according to Deputy Secretary-General Michel Roberts of the Ministry of Health.
High-risk groups, including health care workers and the elderly, are expected to be vaccinated first.
However, even under a rapid vaccine deployment program, the IHME model predicts that by April 2021, the number of deaths will exceed 527,000, which is held back.
Wearing universal masks can reduce these numbers and save more than 66,000 lives by April 1. IHME predicted that by April, total deaths would reach 472,000 if masks were universally adopted, that is, if 95% of people wore masks in all interactions.
But if the state begins to lift restrictions and doesn’t curb the current surge, the cumulative death toll could reach an astonishing 770,000 by April, even with the vaccine.
Based on these figures, modelers urged state and federal leaders not to relax restrictions in the coming months.
“It is important for the government to limit rallies and impose or re-impose the obligation to require masks, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. If the winter surge is causing the infection surge, it is still infected and probably before death. There are many people who can die. The vaccine is fully deployed. “
Many states impose stricter restrictions to avoid the previously seen strains on the healthcare system in the light of the virus surge. Increased hospitalization..
Imposed by Governor Jay Inslee in November New state-wide limits It banned all indoor social gatherings, indoor dining in restaurants and bars, and capacity reduction in grocery stores.
“Today we are in a more dangerous position than in March, when the first curfew was issued,” Insley said when he announced the restrictions.
These limits will expire on December 14th. At this time, it’s unclear whether Inslee will update or change the limit.
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