Fact Check: The list of unofficial COVID-19 vaccine response reports is not evidence that the vaccine caused death.

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Does this list of reports from the Federal Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) prove that the COVID-19 vaccine causes sudden death in a surprising number of young and middle-aged people? No, it’s not. The individual cases of the VAERS system have not been validated, as the VAERS builder clearly states. Anyone can submit a report For the VAERS system, the database does not indicate any confirmed response to the vaccine. Physicians are required by law to report all adverse events that occur within a certain period of time after vaccination. Ten lead story spot checks of the 28 random cases listed revealed that many of them had existing serious health conditions and were residents of long-term care facilities. Mortality is much higher Than the entire population.

A list of 28 VAERS reports with ID numbers post (archive Here) Published on February 9, 2021 by the Facebook page “Learn the Risk”. This post provides steps for navigating the search function of the VAERS database, but does not include a referral. Below is a sample presentation of the three cases from the top of the list.

25 years old.male

I was vaccinated on December 22, 2020. It turned out to be unresponsive and subsequently expired at home on January 11, 2021. Moderna vaccine.

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VAERS ID # 943397-1

28 years old.male

I was vaccinated on December 23, 2020. He died on January 14, 2021. The patient was found to be unresponsive at work in the hospital. The patient’s pupil was fixed and dilated. Pfizer vaccine.

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VAERS ID # 93900-1

32 years old.Female

I was vaccinated on December 28, 2020. He died at 7:20 am on 1/4/21. Moderna vaccine.

This is what it looks like on Facebook at the time of writing.

(Source: Friday, February 12, 22:11:49 Facebook screenshot taken at 2021 UTC)

Given that it was posted on a Facebook page aimed at preventing people from being vaccinated, the intent of publishing this list was to prevent people from being vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine. It is clear that there is. The “Learn the Risk” mission statement on Learntherisk.org leaves little doubt about its intention to post a list of vaccine response reports.

Learn The Risk is a US-based non-profit organization that is a powerful force in educating people around the world about the dangers of medicines that literally kill us, such as vaccines and unwanted treatments.

The VAERS system uses a version of the “data depletion” method. This is a data science approach that screens large amounts of rough or unreliable data to search for patterns. Individual data points are, as the VAERS builder clearly states, unverified, self-reported cases, not points of the VAERS approach. This is an early warning system, not an accurate measure.

Even if the data were confirmed, “Learn The Risk” might have chosen a young and unhealthy VAERS case file instead of taking a representative sample of all the reports. Ten spot checks of the 28 random cases listed revealed that many of them had existing serious health conditions and were residents of long-term care facilities.

Lead Stories spot-checked 10 of the 28 cases on the list posted on Facebook to make sure they were genuine items in the VAERS database. they are.

The report ID numbers correspond to the actual VAERS reports and the details of these reports. Age, gender, date of vaccination, date of death, and vaccine administered were all accurate in the spot check. However, digging into the VAERS database revealed that “Learn the Risk” selected young patients with serious health problems. In many cases, the decedents were residents of long-term care facilities, despite their relatively young age, and it was clear that most reports listed multiple existing health problems. The patient’s medical history and the list of medications he was taking at that time were included in most VAERS reports, but not in the list shared on the Facebook post.

The Facebook “Learn the Risk” post omits important context. The main purpose of the VAERS reporting system is “rapid signal detection of rare adverse events”. In other words, as a crowdsourced dataset, it is only useful for aggregations and not so much for the details of each unsubstantiated report.

It can be difficult to follow the instructions contained in the post on how to search the database. The CDC has a 13 minute video (Here) Describes how to navigate the search function. This video covers some of the strengths and limitations of VAERS data.

Strengths of VAERS data

• National data
• We accept reports from anyone
• Collected information on vaccines, vaccination characteristics, and adverse events
• Published data
• Rapid signal detection of rare adverse events-
  Signals are a potential safety issue and usually require more controlled research to assess whether the signal represents a real risk.

VAERS data limits

• Reporting bias
• Inconsistent data quality and integrity
• No unvaccinated comparison group
• Unable to calculate how often adverse events occur
• In general, it is not possible to assess whether a vaccine has caused an adverse event

Overview of the above reporting system Wonder.CDC.gov The website contains some additional considerations regarding VAERS data limits.

• Vaccine providers are encouraged to report to VAERS any clinically significant health problems after vaccination, whether or not they believe the vaccine is the cause.
• The report may contain incomplete, inaccurate, accidental, and unconfirmed information.
• The number of reports alone cannot be interpreted or used to draw conclusions about the existence, severity, frequency, or proportion of vaccine-related problems.
• VAERS data is limited to vaccine adverse event reports received between 1990 and the latest date for which data are available.
• VAERS data do not represent all known safety information for vaccines and should be interpreted in the context of other scientific information.

Lead Stories emailed the US Food and Drug Administration to learn more about how to investigate VAERS reports, including deaths. FDA spokesman Allison Hunt answered our question:

In particular, the report to VAERS is an unconfirmed report. Reporting an adverse event to VAERS is not a document that the vaccine caused the event. Additional details regarding VAERS data limits can be found here: https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html..

If the death toll increases, it will attract government action, Hunt said:

The FDA takes all reports of vaccine-related adverse events seriously, and in the case of the COVID-19 vaccine, the FDA is actively working with the CDC to monitor the safety of these vaccines … Vaccines Post-dose mortality reporting The FDA and CDC are jointly investigating quickly and rigorously. Such studies include working with healthcare providers to obtain medical history and clinical follow-up information. Clinical case reviews are conducted by the FDA and CDC. In addition, the FDA and CDC have various systems for monitoring vaccine safety. Details are here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety.html..

At the time of writing this lead story report, no such spikes in the data were detected, an FDA spokesman said.

To date, no new safety signals have been seen after administration of the approved COVID-19 vaccine … with validated analytical methods that can quickly detect signals for possible vaccine safety issues. Multiple complementary systems will be introduced. The US Government has an established post-approval / post-approval vaccine safety monitoring infrastructure that is scaled up to meet the needs of large-scale COVID-19 vaccination programs. The US government will work with healthcare systems, academic centers, and private sector partners to monitor COVID-19 vaccines after and during the approval period using multiple existing vaccine safety monitoring systems. These systems include VAERS, Vaccine Safety Data Link (VSD), Biologic Efficacy and Safety (BEST) Initiative, and Medicare Claims Data. If the FDA and CDC identify new safety signals through this safety monitoring, that information will be communicated to the public.

Lead Stories recently published an article addressing questions about. Statistical necessity Some vaccinated people die from unrelated causes.

It is expected that a certain number of people will die in a particular week for a particular reason. The assumption that a particular death or illness was caused by the vaccine because the vaccine was given just before someone got sick is an example of a logical fallacy. The fact that one event precedes another does not necessarily mean that the first event triggered the second event. Correlation and causality are not the same thing.

Obviously, as people get older, they are more likely to die. That is true regardless of the vaccine. The hope of the shot is that it reduces the number of people who get sick, thereby reducing the number of additional illnesses and deaths.