What if the coronavirus recures like a cold every year?

Getty Images / David Ramos / Staff

The novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 is often compared to its close cousin Sars-CoV-1. And for good reason. The virus that caused the outbreak of Sars in the early 2000s is, in many respects, the closest virus to the one we are currently dealing with. Researchers see new viruses as they study for how long Survive on the surface And whether it makes sense to us Wear a mask. Provides a guide on how the case-mortality curve changes May bend If we all play our part and are at home. The comparison offers several hopes: social distance and travel restrictions helped to curb the outbreak of thurs in about a year.

But such drastic containment is starting to look much less convincing. Another analogy may be appropriate for predicting the long-term course of Covid-19. What if the virus resembles a lesser-known family member such as HCoV-OC43 or HCoV-HKU1? The name is unfamiliar, but you’ve probably met it before. These viruses cause a cold. And while they’re not as deadly as Sars and Mars, they’re just too unpleasant. They season by season, With humans Immunity weakens over time. That is why we keep catching them over and over again.

Paper published on Tuesday Science Public health researchers at Harvard University are exploring the potential and what it means for the long-term spread of Covid-19. Their conclusion is a bit tough. Following in the footsteps of these cold bacteria followed by Sars-CoV-2, the herd’s immunity increases and becomes unsustainable. Immunity develops (if enough members of the population’s immunity are already ill or vaccinated against it, and the epidemic has stopped). Until it happens, outbreaks are everyday life. Coupled with the high severity of the virus, repeated socially spaced interventions are necessary to avoid overwhelming the hospital each time.

Researchers at Harvard University have discovered that they may be considering getting closer for at least a while, at least for a while. Think of 2022.

Mark Lipsic, a co-author of the study and a professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, said at a press conference on Tuesday that the role of seasonality was “certainly not zero.” He warned that seasonal fluctuations are not the same as saying that the virus will disappear in summer. Outbreaks can occur at any time, he said, but what begins in the fall may be more serious. This type of variation can have a significant impact on the timing of social distance measurements.

It’s uncertain whether Covid-19 reflects a cold-borne infection caused by the coronavirus, researchers admit. The virus has been around for just a few months, so it was not possible to directly investigate how it spreads seasonally. In addition, I do not yet know how well immunity works. How long will it last Once established. The Harvard team’s model also relies in part on the rather dark assumption that the scientific community does not develop a cure. vaccine It slows the burden of viruses on the health system. Everything that can change, researchers say.

The lack of clear data on Sars-CoV-2 makes cold-causing coronavirus useful for long-term comparisons, said Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto who was not involved in the study. “Will they be the same as Sars-CoV-2? Probably not. It’s another virus,” she says. “But it’s probably the best analogy we need to think about now, especially in the long run.” The paper does a good job outlining uncertainty, she adds. Do what the model does. Helps prepare for the unknown.

In their new study, researchers start with the goal at the heart of all social distance measurements: how to manage the spread of the virus without running out of hospital beds? A computer model was used to reveal potential seasonal variability, using the behavior of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 as a guide and taking into account what is known about the spread and severity of Covid-19. I chose They found a social distance intervention that, if done at the right time, would likely need to be extended to 2022 to bring the new virus under control. Over time, as the herd immunity to the virus gradually increases, their intervention diminishes, the duration of relative normality between them prolongs, and can diminish in both length and severity. There is a possibility.

The key question to model a potential relapse of the virus is how much of the population gains immunity and how quickly it gets it. Lipsitch believes the Cello Survey will be a good place to start. Wide area Antibody blood test When infected with the virus, public health personnel can directly investigate immune problems. First measure the number of people who have the immunity, and then finally how long the immunity lasts. Longer immunity, or even potentially cross-immunity with other coronaviruses, means that the disease is more quickly counteracted.

Other external factors likewise help reduce the need for social separation. It includes vaccines and better treatments that reduce the number of people receiving intensive care. One of the most important factors in tightening social intervention is the national medical capacity. Researchers say that more beds and personnel may be able to quickly reach the herd’s immunity.

It also plays a role in tracking contacts or keeping a record of who the infected person went through. The current belief between epidemiologists and public health authorities is that once the current surge in the U.S. subsides subside, it will switch to surveillance mode and reopen the economy, but will employ extensive antibody testing to reach people’s contacts. It’s about tracking. Through mobile phone Or an army of public health authorities.

However, the experience of East Asian countries like Singapore First success With contact tracking and separation but currently facing Revival of Covid-19 The bacteria carried by inbound travelers raised the question of how long surveillance could keep this line if people were not evacuated at home. “The problem with that – as Singapore, with arguably the best public health system in the world, found-to treat this infection is very difficult,” Lipsitch said. Extensive testing and oversight is important to manage cases that occur at relatively mild times and to alert health authorities of new outbreaks. However, other public health systems, including those in the United States, do not have much of these measures in place and are still trying to control surges. So far in the US, “I think some sort of remote intervention must continue,” he said.

Taking seasonality into account is important to ensure that these interventions are timely. For example, one danger is to maintain measures to reduce social distance for long periods of time, mitigating shortly before the new wave that begins in autumn. Since few individuals developed immunity during the early social distances, it would potentially have more dire consequences in the next outbreak.

Logistics makes it difficult to make such a switch. “This is not a switch that can be turned on and off,” says Tuite. First, the United States must put the current surge of incidents under control. Then you need enough testing to watch for new cases to spike again. However, it is still difficult to precisely time when social distance is restored accurately in preparation for the next surge. Society may have trouble accepting a stutter and a rush to return to normal. In particular, it disrupts school schedules, political campaigns, and staffing of businesses that only need to be opened for later closure. “These models show that this is done, not one,” says Tuite. “The next step is to understand how to reach a sustainable way.”

This story was originally published WIRED US

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