Wisconsin’s pandemic past provides clues to the future of coronaviruses

Jim Mallewitz

Wisconsin clock

Roy Cummings, owner of the Oshkosh cinema, loses big bucks (about $ 400-500 per week) if a city in northeastern Wisconsin shuts down his business and other public meetinghouses I knew that. But he believed it was a wise call.

Bauman, another cinema owner of CG Oshkosh, seemed less keen on closing his business, but “in the opinion of doctors and city officials that such a course is needed.” If so, he said he was willing to do so, “Oshkosh’s daily Northwestern newspaper reported.

Date of dispatch: October 9, 1918. Near the end of the epic war in Europe, later called World War I, Americans faced an even more deadly battle at their homefront. of Accidentally “Spanish cold” It was flowing into Wisconsin and other states, and public health professionals called for dramatic action to slow its spread. This included shutting down much of society to keep people away from each other.

“Sustainable economic losses seem to have little impact compared to saving lives,” D.H. Bath told Daily Northwestern.

Oshkosh had already closed the school when Cummings and Baumann provided their ideas. And on October 10, the city banned all public gatherings and closed “cinemas”, theaters, churches, churning sales and more. State health official Dr. Cornelius A. Harper issued almost the same order that day, suspending public life throughout the state.

But only a few weeks later, Oshkosh became one of the cities opened to celebrate the end of World War II. The fun gathering later became a deadly breeding ground for the virus. Spanish cold finally killed the presumed presumption 50 million 675,000 worldwide and in the United States, including 8,459 in Wisconsin.

History resonates more than a century ago when Wisconsin fights new life-threatening viral villains around the world. Wisconsin is located in 45 states and the District of Columbia There was an evacuation order aimed at delaying at least the spread of coronavirus detected in coronavirus 6,081 Wisconsin residents kill 281 as of Monday. However, governors of several states, including Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina, have since reduced restrictions.

Democratic Governor Tony Evers issued a Wisconsin Safer at Home order in late March and extended it until May 26, relaxing mild restrictions associated with golf courses and curveside services. Evers announced last week a program that will gradually restart the economy if it does certain tests, Contact tracking and case reduction criteria are met.

Evers issued an additional order on Monday, saying he would “roll the scale” in restarting the economy. This allows “non-critical” businesses such as pet groomers and small engine repair shops to provide a stop-off point for their products and animals. This order will also allow you to rent an outdoor RV car. And on Tuesday, Evers announced plans to reopen 34 state parks and forests.

However, long-term closures have caused anger for GOP leaders advocating for a quick return to normalization due to widespread unemployment and other financial distress.

Parliament governed by the Republican Party last week Asked the State Supreme Court Block the order. When Estimated 1,500 protestersMost of them don’t wear face masks, they met at the Wisconsin State Capitol on Friday and demanded termination of the shutdown following similar protests in other states.

Wisconsin was “better than most”

As the political struggle unfolded, public health professionals and historians found that Wisconsin, which had an advanced public health system in 1918, was the only state facing a pandemic flu in the United States facing a unified closure. The residents say that they can learn from the state’s past. Residents responded, except for some hiccups.

In the spring of 1918, influenza and associated pneumonia hit Europe, and Americans began to get news of mysterious illnesses in military camps during the summer. Two sailors from the Great Lakes Navy Training Center near Chicago popped up on Wisconsin’s radar in late September after getting sick in Milwaukee. The virus struck the country for the rest of 1918.

In addition to killing 2.6 million inhabitants of the state, 103,000 became ill. However, Wisconsin’s mortality rate in the pandemic is well below that of the US average and most states.

And historians say Milwaukee was one of the country’s top cities with minimal damage, even though Milwaukee County still recorded 1,292 deaths.

“The Wisconsin people took bold steps in 1918 and, despite widespread suffering, the state was largely better when the pandemic receded,” says Stephen, professor of history at Shippensburg University in Pennsylvania. · Berg said. Write a clear history of Wisconsin’s response to the 1918 pandemic In his previous work as a researcher at the Wisconsin Historical Society. “The Wisconsin of 1918 provided a clear lesson on what the unity and collective sacrifices could accomplish for the community.”

Early measures worked

Ah 2007 Research In the minutes of the United States Academy of Sciences in the United States, Milwaukee, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Kansas City began the most effective interventions against the flu in 1918, reducing infection rates by 30% to 50% compared to cities. It saw far more deaths.

“The timing of public health interventions had a major impact on the pattern of the autumn wave of the 1918 pandemic in different cities,” the authors conclude.

A city that has introduced measures based on the “moderate but significant reduction” achieved early. The study found that the significant cuts came from the cities that lengthened the intervention the longest.

The 1918 outbreak occurred when the state of Wisconsin had widespread faith in the government, meaning that patriotism meant following the instructions of civil servants, Richard, who is responsible for the retired references and public services of the Wisconsin Historical Society. Piffer specialized in living in Wisconsin both during World War II.

“Wisconsin controlled the epidemic fairly well because people did what they were asked for,” he said.

However, the Wisconsins have never questioned the strict restrictions on public life.

On October 14, 1918, Appleton Evening Crescent officials issued a warning about the flu, including a Philadelphia story in which the city sought tomb digging “to fill the bodies of 1,000 people waiting to be buried.” I lamented the objection to what I did.

“Most of the press says Spanish flu is nonsense here,” he said, regretting the number of cases reported.

And on Christmas Day 1918, Stevens Point’s Gazette commented: “As long as we can give hardships to the poor fellows who cannot afford the burden, the final proposal to soothe the” public conscience “is okay. “

Virus hits pockets and waves

The 1918 Wisconsin pocket provides an illustration of a warning issued by public health professionals today: It means that viruses without vaccines or cures can be hit by the waves. This means that restarting too quickly can generate new hotspots that the community considers safe.

Consider a small community in Dodge County that recorded 111 flu deaths in a pandemic. Fox Lake, a village of about 1,000 at the time, lifted the ban on rally after the state empowered local governments to decide when to reopen. The flu returned quickly, causing local closure of churches and public gatherings for another few weeks.

“Celebrating the lucky escape from the flu epidemic, and after opening all public places, thinking they were out of danger after they were closed for several weeks, the village suddenly saw many cases of” flu “. , And the lid was tightened again last week, ”said Fox Lake on November 21, 1918.

In a village near Randolph, “they have spent a considerable amount of time, many cases have been reported, and some deaths have occurred,” the representative added.

Influenza began to swirl the region for the rest of 1918. On December 2, delegates reported that the city of Warpun, 10 miles northeast, reopened closure following reports of 50 new cases and two dead. On December 26, the newspaper printed a breaking news from the Warpan leader, reporting that the crazy Central State Hospital had been under a virus “siege attack”. 27 cases germinated and some were serious.

Then there was Oshkosh, who reopened the school and other closed facilities on November 4, 1918, but Mayor Arthur C. McHenry said, “All the dangers are not over and the people It should be warned to take precautions in protecting their health in the coming months. “

McHenry and his voters immediately forgot the message.

Celebration—a surge

On November 11th, news spread that allies and Germany signed a cease-fire agreement in France, halting World War I combat that killed more than 116,000 Americans (more than half ill). . The news spurred a series of noisy parades and other wild celebrations on the streets that were empty the day before.

“ There were hundreds of marchers and nearly 250 cars lined up, ” reports Daily Northwestern, featuring floats and drums croaking, boons, buzzers, bells, gunshots, and frying pans. did. People in one truck in turn hit the anvil with a hammer.

Oshkosh immediately saw a flu surge—one in another house one day, 38, Daily Northwestern reported on November 14—doubled the previous day. The flu shutdown was reopened and was not lifted until 29 November. According to an archive study at the University of Wisconsin Oshkosh.

Oshkosh did not resume school until December 3, but authorities banned student listening. Plans to reopen school were previously stalled after some health-conscious parents refused to allow their children to return.

According to the UW-Oshkosh survey, by December 11, the city will report a total of 2,083 cases during the pandemic.

Along Lake Winnebago, Nina’s residents walked a similar path and filled the street on November 11 to celebrate peace. “A monster parade led by state guards and bands was the hallmark of the day,” the Nina Daily Times reported.

A month later, Daily Northwestern reported that “half of the population” in Nina was infected by the flu, “a daily scary female victim.” According to a “medical practitioner” quoted in the newspaper, the town has aggregated more than 3,000 cases since the beginning of the pandemic.

“We certainly knew what the flu pandemic did where premature isolation was taken,” said James Conway, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine, School of Public Health. Explain history buffs.

1918 Pandemic Echo

Infectious disease experts are repelling the comparison between COVID-19 and modern influenza for many reasons. This is because scientists have long been developing antiviral drugs and vaccines to fight the flu, and many people are now fighting the flu. But today’s coronavirus crisis is very similar to the 1918 flu epidemic, Conway told Wisconsin Watch.

“In 1918 (a pandemic) there were actually many similarities because there was no vaccine, and your only hope was really one of two things. It was social distance and people were sick. As I took it and then recovered, several groups of immunity developed, “he said.

Maria Jones, an epidemiological expert working at the UW-Madison Applied Population Laboratory, agreed.

“I think it’s a really fair comparison,” she said. “The only tool we had during the Spanish flu pandemic was to stay social.”

Republicans: Stop safety at home

In today’s fight against the coronavirus, Evers and state health officials say Wisconsin’s strategy is working. Evers’ plans to reopen the economy include expanding testing, the ability to quickly track contact with people who test positive, and a downward trend of illness lasting at least 14 days. He said Wisconsin has not yet met the federal guidelines announced by President Donald Trump’s administration on April 16.

But Republicans have attacked Evers’s extended Safer at Home order as “an unprecedented administrative reach.” Parliamentary chairman Robin Voss and Senate majority leader Scott Fitzgerald urged Evers to reopen the state, and why Wisconsin stays home because the state “clearly sees a reduction in COVID infections.” I am skeptical. (PolitiFact Wisconsin Most are false.)

“We are very dissatisfied with the expansion because it is beyond the legal authority of governmental agencies. The Wisconsins are obliged to sit by and watch,” Voss and Fitzgerald said. Joint statement last week.

A model based on data compiled by the Wisconsin Department of Health From March 3 to 15, we predicted that the virus would grow exponentially if Wisconsin could not intervene. Cases across the state are projected to double every 3.4 days, with up to 22,000 cases of COVID-19 being seen in Wisconsin by April 8, killing between 440 and 1,500 people.

The percentage of cases of coronavirus doubling with Wisconsin is Got quite late,However According to DHS, one key indicator, the percentage of people who test positive for COVID-19, is still on the rise. And the trend runs unevenly across the state. The new case is Soaring in the Green Bay area, For example.

“What we see in Brown County and other states underscores the importance of doing a statewide commitment to Safer at Home right now.” Evers said on Monday.

Andreas Palm, the nomination of General Secretary of DHS, who spoke to reporters last week, said the decline in state-wide incidents proved “we did the right thing.”

But without ongoing restrictions, authorities warn and the risk of future outbreaks persists. Public health experts agree, especially if the inhabitants are self-satisfied.

“We are actually much more successful in harnessing social distances than we might have expected from a public health perspective,” said Conway. “I may have to recreate my social distance because I’m starting to take my feet off the brakes and at least trying to put the car back in gear, and they basically say,” Wolves cried, though. , Why do I need to comply with the following actions? ” “

Is the worst yet?

Robert Redfield, director of the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Washington Post Last week, the protest against home orders was “useless” and warned that “a virus attack on our country next year could actually be even more difficult than the one we just experienced”. Done-COVID -19 cases persist with seasonal flu.

At a media briefing last week, Wisconsin’s Under Secretary of Health Julie Willems van Dyck repeated Redfield’s warnings, reminiscent of the 1918 pandemic.

“One of the things we know about pandemics is that there are usually multiple peaks instead of one,” Van Dijk said. “In fact, looking back at the data on the Spanish influenza pandemic, it was not the first peak that killed many, but the second peak of the fall revival.”

Future historians will study how the country and Wisconsin react in the coming months.

Despite political and legal disputes over the closure of Wisconsin and other regions, many Americans support the restrictions. AP Public Relations Research NORC Center Investigation Estimated that 61% of Americans considered the government’s steps to prevent the spread of COVID-19 “almost correct,” while 26% felt they were not progressing well, while only 12% of respondents Is “overkill”

The survey of 1,057 adults in the United States was conducted from April 16 to 20, with an error of plus or minus 4 points.

Talking to Wisconsin Watch last month, retired Wisconsin Historical Society researcher Piffer said he hopes state leaders will listen to lessons from the state’s pandemic past.

“The past doesn’t repeat. Humans and human societies are too complicated for that,” he said. “But it does provide a window into the behavior of human society, and understanding the past gives a better understanding of the future, because that window into the American soul.”

Non-profit Wisconsin watch (wisconsinwatch.orgWe work with the Wisconsin Public Radio, PBS Wisconsin and other news media, the Department of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. All work created, published, posted or distributed by Wisconsin Watch does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of UW-Madison or its affiliates.