Business
Stock markets little changed as key Fed inflation data continues to decline
The biggest challenge in the real estate market is here to stay.
Bank of America economists have warned that the housing market will remain “stuck in the mud and unlikely to break free” until 2026 as the supply of homes for sale remains near record lows records.
The so-called “lock-in” effect for homeowners who got ultra-cheap mortgages while rates were low during the pandemic has caused homeowners to stay put.
The investment bank estimates that the impacts of this situation could last 6 to 8 years, limiting real estate activity and, therefore, residential investment which feeds the GDP calculation.
High interest rates have had a major impact on homeownership.
Mortgage rates remain around 7% despite recent declines in borrowing costs, keeping supply low and driving up prices of homes that change hands.
House prices hit a new record in April, although annual growth slowed from the previous month, according to the latest data available Bank of America projects that home prices will rise about 4.5% this year, 5.0% next year and 0.5% in 2026, according to Case-Shiller.
“Home prices have already exceeded their long-term fundamental value based on disposable income,” Bank of America economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients Friday.
“Second, our economic outlook calls for continued normalization as the effects of the pandemic increasingly recede into the rearview mirror. The structural shift in housing demand that has driven up home prices is likely to fade over time. That said, we believe home prices are unlikely to fall much.”
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