Emmy Awards 2024 for Best Actor in Drama Predictions

We'll be updating this article throughout the season, along with all of our predictions, so be sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news on the 2024 Emmy race. The nominations voting round takes place from September 13 to June 24, with official Emmy nominations announced on Wednesday, July 17. Then, the final vote begins on August 15 and ends on the night of August 26. The 76th annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place. will take place on Sunday, September 15 and will air live on ABC at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.

The state of the race

What a difference a season can make. TV stars like Nathan Fielder and Donald Glover can go from being Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for “The Rehearsal” and “Atlanta,” respectively, to Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series. for their new shows “The Curse” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.”

It's definitely a strange year for the Drama categories, with so few previously recognized series being eligible again. And even if the series have been recognized, like “The Crown” for example, the star Dominic West has not. In fact, the only performance listed below that has ever been recognized by the Emmys is Timothy Olyphant's starring role in “Justified,” an FX series that was rebooted this season, but that nomination dates back to 2011.

Although it is much more difficult for an already running series to be included in the Outstanding Drama Series category than a new series, acting categories often highlight performances that have built a reputation. That's why “Slow Horses” star Gary Oldman has a better chance of receiving an Emmy nomination than his Apple TV+ series overall. The spy series winning a few trophies during the winter awards season is helping to put it on voters' radar. Likewise, while “Parish” may not be the highest-rated new show on AMC, its star Giancarlo Esposito tends to be an actor that Emmy voters often recognize for the new role he's taking on.

It's also worth noting that Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series highlights how genre shows have become Emmy contenders. Similar to a performance like that of Pedro Pascal in “The Last of Us”, the main role of Walton Goggins in the new adaptation of the video game “Fallout” and the return of Tom Hiddleston in “Loki”, a notable character of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, both have a strong chance at a nomination.

Current competitors (in alphabetical order):
Idris Elba, “Diversion” (Apple TV+)
Giancarlo Esposito, “Parish” (AMC)
Joel Edgerton, “Dark Matter” (Apple TV+)
Colin Farrell, “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
Nathan Fielder, “The Curse” (Showtime)
Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins, “Fallout” (Video Premiere)
Tom Hiddleston, “Loki” (Disney+)
Ben Mendelsohn, “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
Timothy Olyphant, “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
Ramón Rodriguez, “Will Trent” (ABC)
Morgan Spector, “The Golden Age” (HBO)
LaKeith Stanfield, “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
Dominic West, “The Crown” (Netflix)

More predictions on drama categories:
Outstanding drama series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

To see IndieWire's full set of predictions for the 76th Annual Emmy Awards, click here.

Last year's winner: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Still eligible: No.
Hot series: At best, an actor from an HBO series like “The Gilded Age” star Morgan Spector would continue the pay cable network's winning streak in that category. It's a little more likely, however, that Dominic West is the second actor to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for his portrayal of Prince Charles in Netflix's “The Crown” (the first was Josh O'Connor for his performance in season 4.)
Notable ineligible series: Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong, “Succession” (completed); Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” (completed); Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (season 2 is not eligible); Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man” (Season 2 is not eligible)