Politics
Morning deal: China eyes profits as Xi meets US business leaders | The powerful 790 KFGO
By Jamie McGeever
(Reuters) A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Chinese industrial profits and Australian inflation top the Asia-Pacific economic calendar on Wednesday, amid reasonably firm global stock markets and risk appetite ahead of key US inflation data expected later in the week.
Economic, trade and political spheres are also expected to collide in Beijing, where Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with American business leaders, according to three sources familiar with the matter, following his November dinner with American investors in San . Francis.
The audience with Xi follows Chinese Premier Li Qiang's failure to meet with visiting foreign CEOs at the China Development Forum in Beijing on March 24-25, reigniting concerns about the transparency of the Chinese economy and deteriorating economic ties with the United States.
But Xi's personal intervention could be a sign of his commitment to ensuring China is open for business and improving Sino-U.S. relations. Or at least prevent them from deteriorating further.
The Chinese economy, markets and investors could certainly benefit from some good news.
Chinese stocks are on track to post their first quarterly gain in four quarters, but that is due to a strong rebound from a five-year low in February, which has since faded. Chinese stocks are barely up for the month of March.
This has also held back Asian stocks: the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is up just 1% this year, far behind the MSCI World (+7%) and the MSCI World Emerging Markets Index (+1.5 %).
The figures released on Wednesday will provide a first glimpse into the health of Chinese industrial companies' profitability this year, with figures for January and February due to be released.
Industrial profits fell 2.3% in 2023, their second consecutive annual decline. But there were some signs of improvement late last year. Profits rose 16.8% in December from a year earlier, extending their gains for a fifth month.
The other main economic indicator on Wednesday is Australian consumer inflation for February. Economists expect the annual rate to rise slightly to 3.5% from 3.4% in January.
Traders on Australian rates do not expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to start cutting rates until September and are pricing in only 40 basis points of easing this year.
The yen, meanwhile, remains dangerously close to its lowest levels not seen since 1990. Japanese officials are intensifying their verbal interventions. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned Tuesday that rapid currency movements are undesirable, but that this does not translate into much upside potential for the yen.
This may only happen if there is a sufficient decline in US yields and rate expectations, which may not happen until after US PCE inflation on Friday. A warmer-than-expected report, however, and the yen could quickly slip above 152 to the dollar and force Tokyo to act.
Here are the key developments that could give markets a better direction on Wednesday:
Industrial profits in China (January, February)
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with American business leaders
Consumer inflation in Australia (February)
(By Jamie McGeever; editing by Josie Kao)
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