Xi Jinping is preparing to visit Europe for the first time in five years, amid growing tensions with the EU over trade and China's implicit support for Russia.
The Chinese president will make state visits to Serbia, Hungary and France, starting Monday in Paris. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last week visited China, his country's biggest trading partner, but Xi's return trip “could lay bare European divisions over trade with Beijing”, said Reuters. The EU threatens to “hammer” the Chinese electric vehicle and green energy industries with tariffs, in response to “huge subsidies,” which the bloc says give Chinese manufacturers “an unfair advantage.”
The visits will be closely monitored by Washington, after Congress last week passed a US military aid bill providing $61 billion to Ukraine and $8 billion to counter Chinese threats in Taiwan and the 'Indo-Pacific. China condemned the bill, calling it a “dangerous provocation”, said The Associated Press.
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What is the meaning of travel?
Relations between Europe and China are “their most delicate point decades from now,” said Bloomberg.
Xi's trip comes at a 'crucial moment' for Russia's advance in Ukraine, said Radio Free Europe (RFE), and before the “potential fallout” from the US elections in November. Xi will seek to “repair some of the damage” done to relations with Europe since his last trip in 2019.
European feelings towards China have “soured”, said The diplomat. One of the “landmark achievements” of Xi’s latest European tour was that Italy became the first G7 country to join the China deal. Belt and Road Initiative (BIS). This has since “undone”. The Italian government withdrew from the BRI last year because the much-criticized initiative “had did not bring the promised benefits“. China's “condescending insults” over the way European countries handled the Covid-19 pandemic “certainly did Beijing no favors.”
Economic tensions – once “the glue that held the bonds together” – have deepened. But the issue “most responsible” for the deterioration of relations, accelerating a process of skepticism towards China that was already growing, is Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
China “claims neutrality” in the war, but Xi and Vladimir Putin said their governments enjoyed “boundless friendship” just days before the invasion began, the AP news agency said. China has since “refused to call the Russian assault an invasion” and has reportedly provided Russia with military technology. During a recent visit to China, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made these allegations clear.
Xi is expected to welcome Putin soon after returning to Beijing, placing the boundless friendship under international scrutiny.
What is the program ?
Trade and investment are expected to dominate. The EU is monitoring Chinese investments and the European Commission has opened trade investigations that could ultimately penalize Chinese clean technology exports.
France considers Xi's visit, which marks 60 years of French-Chinese diplomatic relations, as an “important diplomatic moment”, AP said. President Emmanuel Macron, visiting China last April, “reiterated the need” for Europe to “rebalance its trade relations with China”, said Voice of America (VoA). The two militaries agreed last week on maritime and air cooperation, which Beijing called a “vital step” in the consensus between Xi and Macron.
The upcoming summit in Switzerland on the war in Ukraine will also be in the spotlight, RFE reported. It is “unclear” whether China will participate or boycott the negotiations scheduled for June.
Xi will next visit Serbia, probably on Tuesday – on the 25th anniversary of NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. This “major event” triggered long-standing friendly relations between China and Serbia.
He will also visit Hungary: the first EU member to participate in Xi's BRI. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the only European leader to attend a conference in Beijing on the BRI and has “courted Chinese investment and closer ties” while his relations with Brussels remain thorny. Budapest announced a security deal with China in February that could allow Chinese police patrols in the country.
What is the likely outcome?
Xi is likely to “double down on Beijing’s close relations with Budapest and Belgrade,” VoA said. He hopes to show that China remains influential in central and eastern Europe, said Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, an expert on EU-China relations at National Dong Hwa University in Taiwan. The symbolism of these rulings is important to Beijing “as an opportunity to amplify divisions within the EU”.
Serbia and Hungary will “likely be rewarded with investment and other deals,” The Diplomat said – but “few expect real progress” when Xi is in France.
