Imran Khan faces new pressure in Pakistan

It’s the oldest cliché in Pakistani politics. On July 15, the government said that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the party of Imran Khan, a popular former prime minister now in jail, was involved in anti-state activities. The charges? The PTI allegedly sabotaged negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and hired an American lobbying firm. For good measure, the government also filed a treason case against Mr. Khan, a crime that carries the death penalty. Imran Khan and Pakistan cannot mix, said Attaullah Tarar, the information minister.

The opposition’s harassment suggests that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s minority government is under pressure. On July 12, the Supreme Court reinstated the PTI in parliament after it had been barred from February’s general elections, forcing its candidates to run as independents. The Supreme Court also declared the PTI eligible for a portion of parliamentary seats reserved for women and non-Muslims. That means Mr. Khan’s party looks set to become the largest in parliament. More damaging for Mr. Sharif, his hopes of securing a two-thirds majority, and thus the power to amend the constitution, appear to have evaporated.

The government’s legal setback comes with more bad news. On July 13, Mr. Khan was acquitted in an illegal marriage case, one of three convictions for which he was sentenced to a total of 34 years in prison earlier this year. (Mr. Khan is expected to be charged with corruption.) At his news conference, Mr. Tarar said that Mr. Khan and his party had been given undue relief by the courts. He said the government would appeal the Supreme Court’s decision.

The day after the announcement, the deputy prime minister appeared to waver, saying that no decision had yet been made on whether to ban the PTI. If the government decided to do so, a long-pending constitutional process would be triggered, requiring the government to declare the PTI’s actions prejudicial to the sovereignty or integrity of Pakistan. The ban would then have to be taken to the Supreme Court for a final decision. Can the government ask the court that has just sent the PTI back to Parliament to ban it altogether? Legally, that makes no sense, says Ali Zafar, a PTI senator.

However fanciful the ban may be, the government may be tempted to follow through on its threat. Pakistan’s generals, who have backed Mr. Sharif since their 2021 fallout with Mr. Khan, tried to rig the election in February. But they failed to deter Mr. Khan’s voters. And Mr. Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), failed to attract voters who seemed put off by Mr. Sharif’s move to replace Mr. Khan in 2022.

The government is also grappling with other challenges. On July 12, the IMF approved a $7 billion, 37-month bailout, the third in five years. The country’s external debt and liabilities have ballooned to $130 billion, or 70 percent of GDP. Interest payments on the debt account for more than half of government revenue. Sharif has pledged to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio from 9 percent to 12 percent and to tax the retail and agricultural sectors. But these are the main political interests of the PMLN and its allies. The government has already had to reverse electricity price hikes for poorer consumers after a backlash. Growth, which was negative last year, is projected to be 2.4 percent this year.

Terrorism appears to be on the rise again. On the same day the government announced the ban on the PTI, 28 people, including 10 soldiers, were killed in two attacks claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistani branch of the Taliban. The South Asia Terrorism Portal website has recorded 397 fatal terrorist attacks this year, up from 136 in 2019. In 2023, the number of deaths linked to militancy has reached a six-year high. The government announced a new counterterrorism campaign last month. But success will likely depend on cooperation from Afghanistan. The TTP is the largest terrorist group operating in Afghanistan, with more than 6,000 fighters.

The last time Pakistan banned a major political party was in the 1970s. The first was Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League, which fought for Bangladesh’s independence. Six months later, Bangladesh seceded. The other was the Awami National Party, which opposed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, founder of the Pakistan People’s Party. Two years later, Bhutto was overthrown in a military coup and hanged. Pakistan’s leaders should perhaps remember this history.

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