Syria and Türkiye: Towards reconciliation or defeat of the opposition? | News from the war in Syria

Plumes of smoke rise into the night sky as shops burn and crowds unfurl Turkish flags in the central province of Kayseri, chanting that they want the refugees to leave.

The video is just one of several that emerged in early July purporting to show anti-Syrian violence on the streets of Turkish cities.

The period has been marked by unrest and tensions, fueled by growing anti-Syrian sentiment in parts of Turkey as well as fears among Syrians opposed to the government of President Bashar al-Assad, both in Turkey and in Syria, which is moving closer to normalizing relations with the Turkish government.

Anti-Syrian riots broke out in Kayseri on June 30 following accusations that a Syrian man sexually abused a seven-year-old Syrian girl in the Turkish city.

Rioters set fire to Syrian-owned shops and overturned cars as they demanded the expulsion of Syrians from Turkey.

Turkish authorities have arrested 470 people in connection with the violence and later arrested a 14-year-old boy who allegedly disclosed the personal data, including passport details and residence locations, of more than 3.5 million Syrians in Turkey.

The violence is destabilizing for Syrians on both sides of the border.

A day later, in the northern Syrian city of Afrin, controlled by Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces, people demonstrated in solidarity with their compatriots in Turkey.

These protests were initially peaceful and headed towards the governor's residence, but they lost their peaceful character after the protesters removed the Turkish flag. [flying there]Firas Abu Jawad*, a 33-year-old resident of Afrin in northern Syria, told Al Jazeera.

Clashes ensued and seven protesters were killed in exchanges of fire with people guarding Turkish positions in Afrin and another city, Jarablus, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said.

Thaw in Syrian-Turkish relations

What may worry Syrians more than the violence are diplomatic initiatives that make a rapprochement between the Turkish and Syrian governments likely.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a staunch supporter of the Syrian anti-Assad opposition, cutting ties with the government in 2011 and supporting the protest movement seeking to topple al-Assad.

As Assad responded to the protests with harsh repression and unprecedented brutality, Turkey became a lifeline for the Syrian opposition, providing a base for military and political figures.

Turkey also hosts 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees, the largest number in the world, and is also militarily involved in areas along the border, mainly attacking the People's Defense Units (YPG).

Turkey considers the YPG to be a wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a group that has fought the Turkish state for decades and is designated a terrorist group in Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

But its local partners have often been Syrian anti-government groups, and the Turkish military's presence in border areas spanning nearly 9,000 square kilometers (3,400 square miles) has provided security against attacks by Syrian government forces.

Erdogan, however, has repeatedly raised the possibility of a rapprochement with the Syrian government in recent years and said on July 7 that he would invite Assad for talks.

Our invitation can be renewed at any time, Erdogan said. [I]If Bashar al-Assad takes a step towards improving relations with Turkey, we will also show the same approach towards him.

Erdogan reiterated that call a week later. Iraq’s foreign minister said the potential meeting, which is also backed by Moscow, could be held in Baghdad. For his part, al-Assad said on July 15 that he would meet Erdogan only if the focus was on Ankara’s support for Syrian opposition groups.

Change of heart?

So why does the Turkish government seem to be changing direction?

Ankara is not satisfied with the security situation in Syria and believes that the United States is not providing a solution and is not willing to abandon the YPG, said Mer zkizilcik, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, referring to the United States' continued support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group that mainly includes the YPG.

So they are considering the Russian alternative [of re-engaging Assad].

Turkey considers the PKK and its affiliates as its main security threat, and Ankara views the continued presence of these groups in northern Syria as a problem that must be addressed.

There is some logic that Assad, who currently appears to be avoiding any conflict with the SDF, might be convinced to support Turkish action against the group.

While Assad's government appears secure and is normalizing relations with Arab states that previously supported the opposition, many Turks believe the situation is already critical and that a deal with the Syrian government is necessary.

Some experts, however, believe that this has already been the Turkish government's policy in Syria in recent years, particularly because of its coordination with Russia, a staunch supporter of Assad that carries out attacks in opposition-controlled areas on his behalf.

Erdogan's policies in Syria since 2016 have helped the Assad regime, said Gnl Tol, founding director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institutes.

That is not how Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan sees it. He told Al Jazeera that the government has a foreign policy of normalisation, which is part of Erdogan’s vision of peace.

Fidan highlighted the long Astana peace process, involving both the Syrian government and the opposition, as well as discussions between intelligence officials.

The region is today in a climate of search for peace and stability, said Mr. Fidan. The spirit of our times pushes us to seek peace and stability.

What are our priorities as Türkiye? [Turkey]”We are not thinking only about ourselves. What are the needs of Syria? Political independence, territorial integrity are very important issues that we support,” the foreign minister said.

Fidan also denied that the Syrian opposition had been abandoned.

“We are not changing our position towards the Syrian opposition. The Syrian opposition's relations with the regime are based on its own decision, its own choice,” Fidan said, before stressing that opposition fighters fought alongside Turkish troops to protect Turkey's security.

It is not possible for us to forget this sacrifice, there is no question of us forgetting these sacrifices and letting them go, Fidan added.

Some in Turkey have suggested that working with al-Assad would allow refugees to return home, but Zkizilcik said that was a misperception.

Assad is neither able nor willing to accept the return of refugees and is not a partner against the YPG, Zkizilcik said.

The normalization efforts have not encouraged the Assad regime to move toward a political solution in Syria, but have reinforced its policy of non-concession.

Fidan said Turkey's policy towards refugees remained unchanged.

Our government policy has never changed, he said. [Erdogans] The vision is still the same, his will is the same. Unless it is voluntary, we are not in a position to force anyone to leave the premises. Provocative allegations on this issue have no validity.

Erdogan may be hoping that a deal with Syria could lead to an understanding where they work together to create a sphere in northern Syria where [Turkey] will invest to rebuild and [Syria] offers security guarantees to refugees from Türkiye, according to Tol.

For Erdogan, it would be a win-win situation, she added, because Turkey can provide cheap construction and would benefit from the profits at a time when Syria is in dire need of investment. In the meantime, Erdogan could keep his campaign promise to encourage the voluntary repatriation of a million Syrians.

But a rapprochement would require certain guarantees for Turkey, including security guarantees against the PKK, which Assad might not be willing to give.

The likelihood of these negotiations being successful is not very high, as the contentious issues and disagreements are numerous and complex, said Armenak Tokmajyan, a non-resident fellow at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

However, if they succeed, they will kick off a process that could significantly change the situation on Syria's northern border.

Unbearable for Syrians

As the situation in northern Syria becomes increasingly complicated, many Syrian refugees say they have simply become dangerous across the border in Turkey.

After the Kayseri incident, mobs of Turkish nationals began attacking Syrians and their businesses in cities across the country.

The continued rise of anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey puts the Turkish government in a difficult position. Erdogan continues to support the principle of welcoming refugees and has accused the Turkish opposition of inciting violence, saying after the recent outbreak that nothing can be achieved by fueling xenophobia and hatred of refugees in society.

However, a struggling economy and the increased use of anti-refugee and anti-Syrian rhetoric by Turkish opposition groups have made adopting pro-Syrian positions increasingly unpopular in Turkey.

The general deterioration of the situation of Syrians in Turkey has led to some 12,000 alleged voluntary returns to Syria in the first half of 2024 at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing alone, according to Mazen Allouch, the post's public relations and media director.

This resentment against Syrians is a long-standing problem, says Thomas Pierret, a Syria specialist at the Institute for Research and Studies on the Arab and Islamic World (IREMAM). It has existed for at least a decade. [occasional] episodes of violence.

Many Syrians in Türkiye are increasingly fearful for their well-being and that of their families.

After the latest riots, many streets in Gaziantep were empty, with Syrian businesses closed across the city.

Syrians in Turkey are at risk of being attacked at any time, and such an attack could cost them their lives, Noor Abu Hisham*, a 42-year-old Syrian trader, told Al Jazeera. I closed my market for six days for fear of being attacked and having it destroyed.

Abu Hisham said he left the Syrian city of Hama in 2016 but plans to sell what remains of his inventory to bring his wife and two daughters back to Syria.

The situation is unbearable, he said. I came to Turkey to protect my children and provide them with safer living conditions, but today this security no longer exists.

*Firas Abu Jawad and Noor Abu Hisham are pseudonyms to protect the identities of the interviewees.