Will Narendra Modi compromise on RSS functioning?

There are several ways to read the Union notification of governments Could the lifting of the ban on government functionaries associating with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) be an olive branch of sorts extended to the RSS, which has been consistently critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership?

The RSS leadership welcomed the decision, but denied making such a requestIt seems that the notification serves no purpose other than to buy peace with RSS.

Government officials were also not very keen on joining the RSS. They could have flocked to the daily branches or sectional meetings if Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were in a dominant position and likely to remain in power for decades. But with the Modi government in a more precarious position, such a move would be suicidal because it would draw criticism from any other government that came to power.

Before the general election, Modi's treatment of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat was as instrumental as his relationships with senior BJP leaders, who were marginalised and taken out of the formaldehyde for occasional public display as a show of support for his regime.

As the BJP went from 303 seats in the previous Lok Sabha to 240 in the currentthe iron law of numbers of democracy came into play. The electoral mascot of Hindutva became vulnerable and was seen to have feet of clay.

When the BJP's arrogance was at its peak, its president JP Nadda said that the party was Saksham (capable) and managed its own affairs. Reversing the relationship between the parent organisation and its political front, the BJP, Nadda said the RSS was only an ideological front. He said, “Initially, we were less capable, smaller and needed the RSS. Today, we have grown and are capable. The BJP manages itself. That is the difference.”

A flurry of criticism after the election results showed how relations between the RSS and the BJP had deteriorated. A week after the BJP's poor showing, Bhagwat launched the first broadside against Modi by insisting that a real sevak (servant, volunteer) never develops arrogance (selfishness) Without naming Modi or any other BJP leader, he criticised the harsh language used against political opponents during the election campaign, where decorum was not respected. He particularly criticised the Modi government for not paying attention to the ethnic violence in Manipur.

Senior RSS Functionary Indresh Kumar went even further and reprimanded the BJP leaders saying, “Those who did bhakti for Lord Ram have become arrogant.” This party was declared the largest party, but was surpassed by Lord Ram at 240 due to his arrogance. Bhagwats reference to man wanting to become Superman, then God (demi-god) and Bhagwan (God) was seen by many as veiled criticism of Modi claiming that he was a non-organic to be sent as an instrument of God.

Will the notification of lifting the ban on government officials associating with the RSS put an end to criticism? Media reports, citing unnamed sources, have claimed that the Modi government has received a notification of lifting the ban on government officials associating with the RSS. insurance that the RSS leaders would not publicly criticise his leadership after his positive gesture.

But this truce can only be fragile. The electoral signal of the 2024 general elections has shown that Modi has probably made his way to the top. The party supports him, but more out of fear and lack of alternative leadership than the enthusiasm he displayed earlier.

It is naive to claim that the RSS is aligning with public opinion by distancing itself from Modi. Public opinion has moved away not only from Modi, but also from Hindutva to a large extent. Defeat of Faizabad (Ayodhya) The BJP's intervention with Dalit leader Awadhesh Prasad underscored this point unequivocally. It is more likely that the RSS is reflecting the sentiments against Modi's leadership that are growing within the BJP itself.

It is too early to say that Modi has lost control of power. Once in power, he could still regain it. However, no one in the BJP seriously expects him to lead the party in the 2029 general elections. The RSS and the BJP may not have chosen his replacement yet, but there is no doubt that the battle for succession has begun.

Not everyone in the party may be comfortable with Amit Shah and his brusque attitude. Those who are unhappy with the prospect of Shah leading the country see Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, as the next Hindutva icon who can lead the BJP nationally. RSS may also be fond of Adityanath's style of politics and instant justice, especially against any real or imagined crime committed by the minority community.

Recent Attempts to destabilize Adityanath using his deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya have come to nothing. Adityanath knows that the By-elections in 10 Assembly constituencies The elections due by the end of the year will be crucial for his standing in UP and the BJP. Of these 10 seats, the Samajwadi Party won five, the BJP three and its alliance partners, the Nishad Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal, one each.

Adityanath became proactive in taking the lead and put in place a team of ministers to take care of the preparations even before the BJP organisation started its ground work. Two deputy chief ministers were absent from the meeting He then looked at the party's prospects in the by-elections.

If Adityanath’s future depends on the next ten by-elections, Modi too must show that he retains his magic by winning the assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand later this year. In none of these states does the BJP have a clear advantage yet.

What happens in these three state elections and in Jammu and Kashmir, if assembly elections are held there, would have a crucial impact on Modi's continuity of leadership within the BJP and his relationship with the RSS.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.