“Things will get worse before they get better”

Sir Keir Starmer is expected to warn that “things will get worse” in the UK before they get better.

In a speech on Tuesday, the prime minister is expected to say there is no quick fix to what he will call the “rubble and ruin” left by the Conservatives.

He will also continue to claim that the last government concealed the true state of public finances.

But the Conservatives accused Labour of “manufacturing” a financial black hole to pave the way for tax rises – and called on Starmer to reverse his chancellor's cuts to winter fuel payments, arguing they would leave pensioners “out in the cold”.

With a week to go before parliament resumes after a shortened summer recess, the prime minister is expected to use the speech to intensify his attacks on the Tory legacy.

He will say: “We have inherited not only an economic black hole, but also a societal black hole. That is why we must act and do things differently.”

“Part of that involves being honest with people about the choices we face and how difficult they are.

“Frankly, things are going to get worse before they get better.”

Since coming to power in July, Labour has sought to highlight the challenges it faces in government and blame Conservative ministers for failing to address these issues before the election.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves launched this theme in her statement before the summer recess in a statement accusing conservatives of leaving a $22 billion black hole in this year's budget.

“The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was not aware of this,” he is expected to say.

“They wrote a letter to say it. They didn't know it because the previous government had hidden it.”

Sir Keir will also address the wider public sector situation, saying those who took part in the recent riots were able to exploit “the cracks in our society after 14 years of populism and failure”, including: a lack of prison spaces.

Saying that change will not happen “overnight”, the Prime Minister is also expected to claim that Labour has achieved “more in seven weeks than the last government did in seven years”.

He will cite as examples the creation of a National Wealth Fund, the modification of urban planning policy to build more housing and the end of public sector strikes.

Sir Keir's speech comes ahead of a potentially difficult period for the government as it prepares its first budget, due on October 30.

Ms Reeves faces the challenge of delivering on Labor's tax and spending promises, in what she has previously described as a worse-than-expected fiscal situation, with some tax rises looking increasingly likely.

Speaking on BBC Breakfast, Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden said he believed the Prime Minister would be “refreshingly frank” with the public in his speech, saying “we will get there, but it will take time”.

He said the movement to begin testing means-tested winter heating benefits for retirees “It was not a decision we wanted to make.”

But Mr McFadded added: “When we came to power we discovered billions of pounds of unfunded spending commitments… so we had to make a very difficult decision.”

He said there were almost 900,000 pensioners entitled to Pension Credit who were not currently claiming it, and all pensioners should be confident that the triple lock on pensions would be protected throughout the parliamentary term.

Responding to details of the Prime Minister's speech, Conservative Party chairman Richard Fuller said: “The mild-mannered Labour Chancellor is wasting money while creating a financial black hole in an attempt to convince the public to accept tax rises, literally leaving pensioners out in the cold.”

“The Prime Minister should really tell his Chancellor to change course or intervene himself to reverse her decision.”

Limiting winter fuel payments to those in receipt of pension credits or other means-tested benefits has also been criticised by former Labour minister Alan Johnson.

Speaking to the BBC's World This Weekend programme, Mr Johnson – whose roles in the previous Labour government included work and pensions secretary – said the government should consider offering support to pensioners who are not receiving means-tested benefits but are still on a low income.

“[For] “For people who are just above the pension credit, when you move from a universal payment to a means-tested payment, you need to consider a gradual reduction,” he said.

“We need to look at how this affects people who are just outside the means-tested income threshold.”