Here's Who's Winning in the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris has a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the seven most recent national polls, as surveys show a veritable gridlock for the White House marked by toss-ups in all seven states swing, keeping the race extremely unpredictable as the election approaches.

Kamala Harris speaks at a CNN presidential town hall October 23 in Aston, Pennsylvania.

Getty Images Key Facts

Harris is up 49% to 48% in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters released Thursday, but about 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters could still change their minds.

Harris also leads Trump 49 to 47 percent among likely voters in the latest Economist/YouGov survey released Wednesday, with 2 percent unsure and about 3 percent supporting other candidates (3.6 margin of error), or a slight narrowing from Harris' 49% to 46% advantage. last week.

Harris is up 51 to 47 percent, with just 3 percent still undecided, according to a very large poll of likely voters by the Cooperative Election Study, a multi-university-backed survey conducted by YouGov, which surveyed about 50,000 people from October 1 to 25.

Trump also trails Harris 44 to 43 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday (3-point margin of error), representing a narrowing lead for Harris since she entered the race in July, the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll said. Ipsos showing it ahead by 44% to 43%. two points.

Harris is up three points over Trump, 50%-47%, in the weekly Morning Consults survey, also released Tuesday (margin of error 1 point), after leading by four points, 50%-46%, in the group's two previous polls. .

Harris leads Trump by four points, 51% to 47%, in an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, up slightly from his 50% to 48% lead in early October, while a CBS/ YouGov published Sunday shows Harris on the rise. 50%-49%, a change from the vice presidents who were ahead 51%-48% in mid-October (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5 and the margin of error of CBS polls was 2.6).

An Emerson College Polling poll (Oct. 23-24) released Saturday places the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% a week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3 ), and this is the first time in Emerson's weekly poll that Harris has not enjoyed a lead since August.

Trump and Harris are also deadlocked, with 48% of likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are not encouraging for Harris since the Democrats won the popular vote in the last election even though they lost. the White House, notes the Times.

The Times poll represents a decline in support for Harris since the newspaper's previous poll in early October gave her a 49 to 46 percent lead over Trump, while at least three polls in the past week show Trump with a slight advantage and six others found. Harris in the lead.

The candidates were also dead at 47%, in a CNN/SSRS poll released Friday (margin of error 3.1), which also represents a downward trend for Harris, who was ahead of Trump 48% to 47% in the group's survey in September, when their poll just after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race found Trump with 49% support and Harris with 46%.

Trump leads 48% to 46% in a CNBC poll of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters published Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), a change. in favor of Trump since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.

Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those leaning toward a single candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Wednesday (margin of error 2. 5), and it's up one point, 49% to 48%, excluding the so-called lean.

Harris has erased Trump's lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her advantage has shrunk over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to the FiveThirtyEights weighted average of polls .

Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Have Often Been Wrong

And there's a lot of speculation about how they got it wrong this year and who it might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

According to the polls, who will win the election, Harris or Trump?

Trump is favored to win the Electoral College 52 times out of 100, compared to Harris' 47, according to election forecasts from FiveThirtyEights.

Large number

1.2. That's the number of points by which Harris leads Trump in the FiveThirtyEights polling average. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump up 0.5, and Nate Silver gives Harris up 0.9 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How Does Harris Fare Against Trump in Swing States?

Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona; they are tied in Nevada, according to the Silver Bulletin. However, many of the seven swing states have margins of less than a percentage point.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released September 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, her lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, showed 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they didn't know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but it remains significantly lower than previous leads by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and by 50 points in the 2016 poll. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

What is the impact of the debate on the polls?

Pre-debate surveys found Harris' rising poll numbers appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters conducted September 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, in down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show that the majority of respondents think Harris won the debate, but not enough to have a significant impact on the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released September 19 found that the majority of voters in every demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris' September 10 debate performance, with 67 percent saying that she had done well, compared to 40% who said the same thing. about Trump. Harris was up 52 to 46 percent among likely voters and 51 to 47 percent among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her lead of six points among likely voters. in late August and early August, according to ABC/Ipsos surveys, even though 63 percent of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Key context

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced her intention to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination in a virtual call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his choice for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris' rise in the polls comes with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% today. today, while Republican enthusiasm remained stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released August 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points, but 12% are still deciding (Forbes)

Swing State Polls for 2024 Elections: Latest Surveys Show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Updated) (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Nevada Polls: Trump up 1 point in latest survey as Harris battles with Latinos (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Georgia polls: Trump leads latest poll, but undecided voters could tip the scales (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Arizona: Trump up 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan Polls 2024: Harris Narrowly Leads in Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 Pennsylvania Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State in Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in Wisconsin: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris 2024 polls in North Carolina: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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