Trump or Harris? The Turkish government can't decide which is better

Four days remain before the US presidential election and Turkish leaders in Ankara are divided over which candidate to favor.

Turkish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to Middle East Eye, believe that either outcome would have a significant impact on Turkey's foreign policy, as well as regional and global dynamics.

Many observers in Turkey believe President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is waiting for the U.S. election results before making his own policy decisions, including regarding his cabinet personnel.

Yet officials have been particularly and unusually tight-lipped about their preferred candidate during this campaign period.

Erdogan's only public communication to either candidate was to Donald Trump via a phone call after the former president was shot at a rally in Pennsylvania in July.

In September, media reports claimed that Erdogan had tried to arrange a meeting with Kamala Harris on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, which several Turkish officials denied.

Some officials floated the idea, but ultimately no formal proposal was made to the Harris team, a source close to the matter told MEE. We kept our distance from both candidates and did not seek to meet with Trump either.

Leaders of other neighboring countries, such as UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, chose to meet with Trump and Harris in September around the General Assembly.

Ups and downs

Turkey's lack of commitment to the candidates stems from two things, sources in Ankara say.

First, Ankara is deeply confused about the possible ramifications – pros and cons – of a Trump or Harris presidency for Turkey's relations with the United States.

Many in Erdogan's entourage believe a Trump presidency could work well with his government, as the two men are used to sharing frequent engagements, such as phone calls and meetings, providing space to the Turkish president to put forward his arguments on the issues that are important to him.

For example, in a 2019 call, Trump gave Erdogan the green light to carry out a military offensive in northern Syria, which allowed Ankara to seize areas and deny Kurdish armed groups Syrian allies of the United States of uninterrupted territory across the Turkish border.

When Washington sanctioned Turkey for its purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense systems, Trump also chose the lightest sanctions package presented to him.

Despite ups and downs, such as Trump imposing sanctions on Turkish ministers following the imprisonment of American pastor Andrew Brunson in 2018, Erdogan's entourage believes the two leaders have similar mindsets and could work together for goals wider.

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They claim, for example, that Berat Albayrak, Erdogan's son-in-law and former finance minister, had good relations with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

However, several politicians from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and some senior officials in relevant Turkish ministries say this is a misleading picture of relations between Turkey and Washington under the Trump administration. .

It is always said that Trump and Erdogan had a good dialogue. What concrete things have we accomplished thanks to this? » said a senior AKP politician.

Others say Turkish ministries and institutions have been unable to work properly with their American counterparts due to the constant turnover of officials on the American side.

They also complain that Trump often made promises and deals that would result in no progress or follow-through. Aside from big promises and attention-grabbing statements, little or nothing has been achieved together during Trump's first term, they say.

For example, despite US President Joe Biden's apparent dislike of Erdogan, the two leaders have authorized their foreign and defense ministries, as well as their intelligence agencies, to work together and find common ground on issues such as the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO.

Earlier this year, Washington agreed to sign a multibillion-dollar F-16 fighter jet deal with Ankara after Erdogan ratified Sweden's NATO membership.

Bilateral trust has gradually grown to the point that the two sides are discussing a possible sale of next-generation F-35 warplanes to Turkey and the Biden administration has delivered messages to Iran through the intermediary of Turkish interlocutors in Ankara.

Watch and wait

Some Turkish officials expect this momentum can be maintained through a Harris administration.

Harris herself doesn't have many foreign policy red lines and is expected to use the bureaucracy and foreign policy gurus within the Democratic establishment to craft institutional policy.

Ankara's previous attempts to engage with Trump officials before the 2016 election were instructive.

For example, his current national security advisor, Philip Gordon, could be considered an expert on Turkey, as he has extensive experience working in the country and with its government. That could mean a stable, negotiated relationship rather than the ups and downs of the Trump administration.

The second reason Ankara has maintained a studious silence is that the elections were incredibly close. For weeks, the polls have been very close and nothing indicates that any candidate has a better chance of emerging victorious.

Ankara's previous attempts to engage with Trump officials before the 2016 election were also educational.

Turkish attempts to pressure Michael Flynn, then Trump's national security adviser, backfired overwhelmingly when investigations into his activities treated Turkish efforts on par with Russian influence campaigns.

This time, the Turkish government is not looking for adventure and is maintaining a proper electoral approach.