Xi Jinping could lose his bet on the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia Atlantic Council / The New Voice of Ukraine

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the BRICS summit, October 24, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov)

If the war in Ukraine escalates, U.S. and European leaders could impose tougher sanctions on China to pressure it to reduce its support for Russia.

Michael Schuman, Asia analyst and senior fellow at the Atlantic Councils' Global China Hub, writing
for The Atlantic, China finds itself in a difficult position after sending North Korean troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine. Schuman notes that the war in Ukraine highlighted cooperation between four states, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, opposed to the United States and the world order. However, while North Korea and Iran have little to lose, China faces more complex calculations as its efforts to reshape the global order are tempered by its dependence on that same order.

The Chinese economy remains too dependent on the United States and its partners to risk being heavily sanctioned for having shipped weapons to Putin, underlines Schuman.

In his analysis, Schuman observes that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has taken a cautious approach to his global ambitions. Xi is focused on preserving a degree of global stability to protect China's economy, while expanding China's influence and deepening relations with Russia and Iran.

The United States has pressured Beijing to curb cooperation between North Korea and Russia. However, Schuman emphasizes that Xi did not exert his influence. Xi met with Putin before the US administration revealed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. Although the details of their meeting are unknown, North Korean forces remained in Russia afterward.

Schuman argues that destabilizing actions by other autocracies might seem beneficial to China, but they are also risky in that the unrest they create could backfire on China. The deployment of North Korean troops in Russia increases the likelihood of an escalation of the war in Ukraine, which, if it spreads, could lead to intensified sanctions against China, pushing it to limit its support for Moscow.

China seeks to radically reshape the international order in the long term while maintaining it in the short term. However, by stoking tensions with the West, Xi is weakening China's economy and complicating its geopolitical ambitions. Schuman wonders what the Chinese leader might do if his gamble fails and concludes that with friends like Xi, he may not need enemies.

In October, the United States imposed its first sanctions on Chinese companies manufacturing weapons for Russia. On October 17, the US Treasury announced sanctions against three companies and one individual involved in the production of Harpy attack drones for the Russian military.

Previously, the United States sanctioned Chinese companies that provided critical resources to the Russian defense industry.

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