The silent crisis in Pak-Afghan-Taliban relations – OpEd – Eurasia Review

It has been three years and two months since the Afghan Taliban took control of power, marking the third anniversary of their return on August 15, 2021. Pakistani political leaders celebrated the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan said: “They have just thrown off the shackles of physical slavery. Political elites and the establishment feel they have strengthened their western frontier, and Pakistan now faces India and other internal challenges.

Pakistan is also more confident that the threat coming from the TTP from the Afghan side will be nipped in the bud. This instilled a sense of stability, with leaders seizing the opportunity to turn the page by focusing on economic development. However, in less than four years, relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have collapsed. Threats from the western border are greater and pose more dangers than those from India. It is therefore crucial to understand the underlying factors that are driving a wedge between these two historically close allies. Despite their past cooperation and common interests, several problems separate them.

The Durand Line conflict

The colonial legacy left in 1893 as the border between British India and Afghanistan has been the main point of friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan. After its independence, Pakistan inherited the Durand Line from the British. Kabul later withdrew from the agreement and rejected the idea of ​​Pakistan as a successor state.

Since then, whether it is the pro-socialist class, the pro-democratic factions, the Taliban in 1996 or the Taliban in 2021, none of them have managed to consider the Durand Line as the de facto border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In recent times, the Taliban have destroyed fences in various areas. The Durand line remains a bone of contention between the two entities, constantly fueling tensions. This issue continues to resurface, causing friction and keeping both sides at loggerheads.

Taliban, TTP and Indian game: a dangerous triangle for Pakistan

India's mission against Pakistan is as clear as day. India wants to break Pakistan and create as much instability as possible. Since the 1970s, there has been a feeling among Pakistani political elites and the military establishment that India will spare no effort to further divide Pakistan. The capture of Kulbushan Jadhav in Balochistan in 2016, a RAW spy, is testimony to India's efforts to finance and support terrorist organizations in Balochistan. Pakistan claims that the BLA and TTP were implemented by RAW to bring about another Bangladeshi scenario in Pakistan.

The book, RAW: A History of India's Covert Operations by investigative journalist Yatish Yadav, states that RAW recruited three of the most powerful warlords, including Ahmad Shah Massoud. However, they have kept secret the identity of two people who are still working for the Indian missions. For India, the TTP and BLA are committed to achieving their goals, leaving nothing to chance in the process. Their tactics aim to weaken the stability of Pakistan, sowing more chaos to carry out their plans.

With the Taliban returning to power, the TTP has intensified its attacks against Pakistan. There is a sense of triumph within the TTP, believing that if the Taliban can topple just one superpower, then they (the TTP) can topple Pakistan. Data shows a dramatic increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, with a 73% increase in incidents since the Taliban returned to power. This situation raises many concerns because this threat comes straight from the Western Front. However, Pakistan has borne more than direct Indian military attacks, and now finds itself in a difficult situation. India's presence on the Western Front will not be tolerated at any cost as Pakistan is on high alert.

The latest diplomatic meeting was attended by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Defense Minister Muhammad Yaqoob, as well as Indian delegate Jitender Pal Singh, attracting great interest. During their visit to Kabul on November 4-5, they prepared the ground for future talks. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, stressed at a weekly press conference in New Delhi on Thursday: Both sides declared their common desire to strengthen ties and expressed interest in further strengthening interactions between Afghanistan and India, hoping to create a new relationship. leaf.

India's presence and the Taliban's diplomatic relations with India will not result in disaster for Pakistan. However, if India joins hands with the Taliban to support and finance the TTP, BLA and IS-KP against Pakistan, then Pakistan will be forced to counter this threat at all costs. Pakistan could even intervene in Afghan politics to create more instability in the region, thereby throwing a spanner in the works and causing a ruckus.

The TTP and RAW have had long-standing ties. Pakistan fears that this relationship could damage Pak-Afghan relations. The TTP's nexus with India, as well as their activities from Afghanistan's western border, remains a hot potato in Pak-Taliban relations. This issue constantly fuels tensions, keeping the two sides at odds.

Repatriation of Afghan refugees

Under the caretaker government of former Prime Minister Anwar-Ul-Haq Kakar, Pakistan announced plans to round up all unregistered Afghan residents and send them back. The deportation order applies to all “unregistered foreigners” remaining in Pakistan from November 1, 2023. The move has raised eyebrows across the world. Afghan citizens are most directly affected: more than 4 million people reside in Pakistan and approximately 1.7 million are undocumented. This situation hits close to home for many people, as they have lived there for decades, having fled Afghanistan in the 1980s during the country's occupation by the Soviet Union. Many had put down roots in Pakistan, only to find themselves caught in the crossfire of political decisions.

This decision will also impact the fate of millions of legally resident Afghan refugees in Pakistan, forcing many of them to face the situation. The move was mainly driven by security concerns related to terrorism and the resurgence of the TTP in Pakistan after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, adding fuel to the fire. The government of Pakistan said that near the Pak-Afghan border, the presence of these immigrants provides refuge and asylum to TTP fighters, raising alarm bells. Therefore, Pakistan believes that its return to Afghanistan is crucial for its national security, believing that it is a matter of life and death and that it must nip this problem in the bud.

Under this policy, around 746,800 Afghans have been deported from Pakistan as of April 1, 2024. This policy has set off a storm by cracking down on these migrants, forcing them to pack their bags and leave. As they return to Afghanistan, the situation paints a grim picture of current humanitarian and political challenges.

The Taliban government strongly condemned Pakistan's move, saying it adds insult to injury by exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. Given the fragility of Kabul's economy, the mass return of refugees has further strained resources, prompting Kabul to appeal for international support. They point to similar pressure by Iran on Afghan migrants, arguing that such efforts to forcibly return Afghan refugees undermine efforts to combat cross-border terrorism. This situation highlights the complex and multifaceted challenges facing the region.

In conclusion, the deterioration of Pak-Taliban relations can be attributed to a confluence of factors, including the TTP and the India nexus, the deportation of Afghan refugees and the long-standing Durand Line issues. Each of these factors played a key role in creating a divide between the two entities. As challenges continue in bilateral relations, it becomes imperative for Afghanistan and Pakistan to navigate these troubled waters and focus on diplomatic solutions. To bring the regions closer to peace and set a shining example for others, they must mend fences, gather strength and pave the way for stronger Pak-Afghan relations.

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