3 reasons why a Trump White House might not be a disaster for Ukraine, in fact, it might tighten the screws on Russia

Among the first world leaders to speak with Donald Trump after his election victory on November 5, 2024 was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Congratulating the US president-elect, Zelensky expressed confidence in the potential for stronger cooperation between the two nations.

Others are less sure. For many foreign policy observers, Trump's victory, combined with his lukewarm attitude toward NATO, his criticism of the amount of U.S. aid sent to Ukraine and his promise to reach a deal to end the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, have fueled uncertainty about Washington's commitment to doing everything. it can help Ukraine repel Russian invaders.

As an expert on Eastern Europe, I understand where these concerns come from. But I also offer an opposing view: Trump's arrival in the White House is not necessarily bad news for kyiv.

NATO mission against Russia remains unchanged

It is common to hear Trump described as isolationist, nationalist and anti-interventionist on the world stage. He encouraged such a view by asserting, for example, that the United States would abdicate its responsibility to defend a NATO member against a Russian attack if that country did not meet its spending targets. defense in accordance with alliance commitments.

But such rhetoric is contradicted by established facts and previous Republican positions.

In December 2023, the US Congress passed bipartisan legislation prohibiting a president from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO, as maintaining the overall security and stability of Europe is in the US interest. United. The bill's Republican co-sponsor, Sen. Marco Rubio, has emerged in recent months as a key Trump surrogate and is expected to be named Trump's secretary of state, according to reports.

US President Donald Trump speaks during his meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on December 3, 2019. Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

The United States and Europe remain each other's most important markets. As such, the United States will be highly motivated to maintain a role in European security for as long as instability in Europe can influence the global and U.S. economy.

Additionally, there is no indication that the new administration will depart from Obama, Biden, and even Trump's first term in viewing China as the primary threat to the United States. And Beijing provided support to Russian President Vladimir Putin during his 2017 military efforts in Ukraine.

Continued American cooperation with its allies in Europe will also strengthen Washington in Asia. Direct military cooperation, such as coordinating with the British to produce submarines for Australia, helps US strategy to counter and contain the Chinese threat in the Pacific. It would also signal to U.S. allies in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, that Washington is a reliable security partner in times of crisis.

Trump is not as comfortable with Putin as is often said

Much has been made of the warm relationship between Trump and Putin. As the election approached, Trump insisted that if he won, he would bring peace to Ukraine even before his inauguration and called Putin a genius and common sense for the Ukrainian invasion. For his part, Putin congratulated Trump on his victory, commending him for his courage when a gunman attempted to assassinate him. Moscow also indicated that it was ready to dialogue with the Republican president-elect.

Trump's actual policy toward Russia during his first term was significantly more hawkish than these words suggest. Indeed, there is a good argument that the Trump administration has been more hawkish toward Putin than the Obama administration it replaced.

For example, Trump provided the Ukrainians with anti-tank missiles after the Obama administration refused to provide them with such weapons. Additionally, in 2018, the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, citing Russia's previous violations of the treaty. In contrast, in 2014, President Barack Obama accused Russia of violating the INF Treaty after it allegedly tested a ground-launched cruise missile but chose not to withdraw from the treaty.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov called the move a very dangerous step. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty prevented the United States from developing new weapons and tied Washington's hands in its strategic rivalry with China in the Pacific.

Then, in 2019, Trump signed the Protecting Europe's Energy Security Act, which included sanctions halting construction of the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, connecting Russia directly to Germany, via the Baltic Sea. The pipeline, since rendered unusable by a sabotage attack in 2022, is believed to have bypassed Ukraine, prompting the Ukrainian government to call it an economic and energy blockade. It is one of 52 policy actions taken by the first Trump administration to restrict Russia.

In contrast, the Biden administration lifted sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in 2021, only to reimpose them on February 23, 2022, a day before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

How Close Are Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump Really? Misha Friedman/Getty Images Drilling, baby, drilling will hurt Russian oil

Nearly three years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin's war machine still runs on energy revenue. Despite unprecedented Western sanctions aimed at restricting Russian oil sales, countries continue to buy from Russia. For example, India has become the largest buyer of Russian maritime crude oil.

And here, a Trump policy that does not directly target Russia could actually harm Russian interests.

Trump has repeatedly promised to introduce a new wave of oil and gas drilling on American soil. And while it may take time for this to translate into lower prices globally, increased production in the United States, already the world's largest crude oil producer, has the capacity to 'have an impact.

Trump's return to the White House could mean tougher enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions on Iran, reducing Tehran's ability to sell weapons to Russia. Iran has supported Russia both diplomatically and militarily since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. And since 2020, Iranian revenues from oil exports have almost quadrupled, from $16 billion to $53 billion in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

It is difficult to predict what Trump, a particularly unpredictable leader, will do in office. And U.S. foreign policy can be a slow-moving beast, so don't expect immediate breakthroughs or major surprises. But his record serves to contradict the views of observers who have suggested that his victory does not bode well for Ukraine.

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