Adani charges to test Trump's desire to keep India in US orbit BNN Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — The 2018 arrest of an executive at Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies Co. for violating U.S. laws shocked President Xi Jinping's inner circle and raised questions about whether Donald Trump would intervene in this matter.

Trump now faces a similar dilemma after US prosecutors indicted Gautam Adani, India's most powerful businessman and a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a corruption scheme of 250 million dollars. While Modi's party has called the matter a private matter and Adanis has denied the allegations, the affair threatens to disrupt diplomatic relations between the United States and India.

Although Trump did not intervene in the Huawei case, which was ultimately settled in 2021 after he left office, he appears at first glance to have more incentive to make the case go away. Beyond Trump's personal ties to Modi, the new US president has built his team of China hawks who want to see stronger ties with India to counterbalance Beijing's power in the region.

Yet even if Trump does a favor for Adani, who praised the president-elect's unwavering tenacity after his election victory, this case is another reminder of the long reach of American law that can affect both the world's friends and foes entire. The proliferation of US sanctions targeting Russia, China and even India, although they have mostly been granted waivers, has accelerated the expansion of the BRICS group as countries seek an alternative to US domination of the system financial.

For India in particular, the accusations against Adani only reinforce its strategy of keeping a foot in both major camps, remaining friendly with the United States while maintaining good relations with Russia, China and other major economies in the so-called Global South. India remains dependent on Russian weapons and energy and soon plans to host Vladimir Putin for the first time since the start of the war.

Adani's indictment is seen in New Delhi as politically motivated and will impact collaboration and mutual trust between the United States and India unless the new Trump administration drops the charges, said Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. New Delhi. Much will depend on how the next US administration seeks to define its relationship with India.

India's foreign ministry declined to comment when contacted for further information. Trump's team did not respond to requests for further information.

At the moment, it is unclear whether Modi will seek to distance himself from Adani. He faces more vocal opposition, which more than doubled his support in Parliament after elections earlier this year, and is now pushing for federal investigators to probe Adani. Modis party suffered a setback in the polls that forced him for the first time to govern with coalition partners.

However, if India has a national champion, it is the Adani group. Modi and the billionaire share deep ties that go back decades in their home state of Gujarat, and Adani was instrumental in restoring the prime minister's reputation when he came under attack following religious riots in 2002.

After the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of Huawei's founder, the Communist Party ended up presenting it as an attack on China and celebrated her return, even claiming that Xi had personally given instructions on the matter.

Modi could take a different approach, possibly using his personal ties to Trump and the United States' strategic need to gain India's support in the region as leverage. And even though Trump shares mutual admiration with Modi, he has long denounced India for taking advantage of the United States in trade matters.

I have no doubt that probes have already been sent to the Trump team, said Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Certainly, the Trump administration could decide not to pursue them or settle them quickly and without fanfare. The question, of course, is what will the famously transactional Trump want in return?

The assets team

Much will depend on who leads the Justice Department. Trump has personally been sued in a number of cases that he says are politically motivated. His initial appointment of Matt Gaetz as attorney general and subsequent choice of his longtime ally, Pam Bondi, suggest there will be fewer guardrails for intervening in politically sensitive matters.

Trump has already named several key people to his team who are pro-Indian supporters. Marco Rubio, Trump's pick for secretary of state, introduced a bill in the US Senate in July aimed at strengthening defense ties with India and treating the South Asian nation as an ally. NATO like Japan. Mike Waltz, whom Trump chose as national security adviser, was Modi's guest at India's Republic Day celebrations last year.

The US government will have its own balance to manage. He gave Adani a boost last year when the US International Development Finance Corporation announced it would provide $553 million in financing to one of its business units for a port terminal in Sri Lanka's capital , representing the government agency's largest infrastructure investment in Asia. It is unclear whether this project will continue.

For India, which has moved closer to the United States in recent years, the Adani case only highlights the risks of jumping too far into the American camp. Tensions were already high after U.S. prosecutors charged an Indian government employee with leading a foiled plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist with American citizenship in New York.

India's top diplomat, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, once described the country's foreign policy in terms of hedging. This approach has allowed him to maintain friendly ties with the United States and its allies while remaining on good terms with Putin, who is a key supplier of oil and weapons.

India may be more cautious in diversifying its economic and strategic interests, but the Modi government recognizes that the United States is the most powerful country in the world and India cannot confront it head-on, said Sushant Singh, professor of South Asian studies at Yale University.

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