Erdogan prepares his next takeover

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish President, during a press conference in Budapest, Hungary, Monday, December 18, 2023. Credit – Akos StillerBloomberg/Getty Images

A.Ecep Tayyip Erdogan is a political survivor. For over 20 years, first as Prime Minister of Türkiye then, as president, he navigated his way through the kinds of crises that end the careers of even the most resourceful and resilient leaders: galloping inflationA spiral currencythe arrival of millions of refugeesA devastating earthquakeaccusations of corruption, mass protestsinternational condemnation and pressure, and a 2016 coup attempt.

Erdoan has always been a wise populist who understands the importance of cultivating both good friends and good enemies. There are few more prominent examples on the world stage of a leader who sees neither permanent allies nor rivals, only the constant need to win one more election. And by dismantling Many of Turkey's independent state institutions – the military, the courts and the media – have amassed major power, even at times when its popularity was much in question.

Learn more: The man who could beat Erdoan

After bitter defeats During the March local elections for his Justice and Development (AK) party, Erdoan took a step back to compensate for his losses. Perhaps it is time, he concluded, to restore long-strained ties. Despite spending years demonizing the Kurdish minority to form a useful alliance with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Erdoan worked make peace with the Kurdish insurgency in southeastern Turkey. It's floating now standardization speaks with zgr zel, leader of the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP). He is made kind with President-elect Donald Trump to strengthen economically interesting relations with the United States, it also uses political means unpopular austerity measures to try to control inflation. Once again, Turkey's longtime leader proves unpredictable enough to frustrate a weakness-seeking opposition.

But Erdoan has a practical problem: the Turkish constitution only allows two terms as president. He has the luxury of finding a solution, because the next presidential election in Türkiye is imminent. planned for May 2028. He has two options to try to stay in power beyond this date. The first is to push Parliament to call early elections, which would allow him to run again before his current term expires. The second would be to change the country's constitution.

Erdoan's preference is to rewrite the constitution. It's an approach he already took in 2017 when he pushed a successful referendum which transformed Turkey from a parliamentary system to a presidential republic, thereby strengthening its grip on power. He will sell the change to voters as a clean break from a troubled past, allowing him to continue leading the Turkish Republic towards its second century. Not content with removing term limits, he also hopes to make it easier to obtain a third mandate by allowing a candidate to be elected without a majority of votes in the event of a second round.

But he faces an obstacle. Its alliance with the MHP does not offer the number of parliamentary seats needed to hold a constitutional referendum, let alone bring about the desired changes without a constitutional referendum. This is why, even if the CHP resists Erdoan's call for a new partnership, it turn to the Kurds who supported him at the start of his career by offering to play the role of peacemaker. Support from the pro-Kurdish Party for People's Equality and Democracy (DEM) could give him enough votes for the referendum.

There is no guarantee that this plan can work. Make an agreement with Abdallah Calanthe imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), will not single-handedly end a 40-year-old Kurdish insurgency and any deal he makes with a broader group of Kurdish leaders will remain a terrorist attack of blow up Erdoan's plans.

Whatever strategy he chooses, one constant remains in Turkish politics: never bet against the country's master political tactician.

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