The strong influence of Jokowi and Anies in the capital

Suara.com – MORE In the days leading up to the vote, Jakarta's No. 1 gubernatorial candidate, Ridwan Kamil, chose to pray a lot. In addition to being ready to win, he also admitted that he was ready to lose. His direct competitor, candidate number 3 for Jakarta governor, Pramono Anung, is in fact increasingly optimistic. Without any measures, he is confident of winning a round after receiving the support of the former governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan.

“Pray a lot now, what else do you want? Blusukan, it also means blusukan until the end of time,” said Ridwan Kamil at Al-Kautsar Polda Metro Jaya Mosque, South Jakarta, Thursday (21/ 11/2024).

Besides prayer, RK also hopes for support from the 7th President Joko Widodo or Jokowi able to increase eligibility. On November 18, 2024, in Jakarta, Jokowi openly expressed his support for RK-Suswono. The former governor of DKI Jakarta asked his volunteer support bodies to move to make maximum use of the remaining time to win RK-Suswono.

It is not without reason that RK places its hopes in supporting Jokowi. Looking at the results of the latest survey, the electability trend of the pair of candidates for governor and vice governor of Jakarta Number 2 has indeed decreased. Unlike Pramono-Rano Karno. The electability of the pair of candidates for governor and vice governor number 3 increases more and more until they manage to overtake RK-Suswono, who occupied the first place.

In the Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) survey that ran from October 31 to November 9, 2024, for example, Pramono-Rano's electability reached 46%. Meanwhile, RK-Suswono 39.1 percent and Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana 5.1 percent.

SMRC conducted the survey among 1,210 respondents among Jakarta residents aged 17 and above. The survey's margin of error is 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

A similar picture can also be observed from the results of the Kompas R&D survey. The survey, which was held from October 20 to 25, 2024, among 1,200 Jakarta residents aged 17 and above: Pramono-Rano's electability reached 38.3 percent, RK-Suswono 34, 6 percent and Dharma-Kun 3.3 percent.

Kompas Research and Development uses a multi-stage random sampling method and face-to-face interviews. The survey's tolerance of error or margin of error is 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

“I hope if the numbers support him, their supporters and admirers will also support him,” RK said.

RK was really hoping for Jokowi's presence during his grand campaign at Banteng Square, Menteng, Central Jakarta on Saturday, November 23, 2024. However, Jokowi did not attend and chose to attend the open campaign for the pair of candidates Ahmad Lutfi-Taj Yasin in Central Java. .

Optimistic about his one-lap victory

“I am sure that if TPS Guard residents consolidated themselves and worked hard, God willing, Bang Doel and I can win a round,” Pramono said in front of thousands of Anak Abah – Anies supporters Baswedan – at Blok S Field. South Jakarta, Thursday (11/21).

Pramono seemed more optimistic. Apart from the increasing electability trend, it is also because he received the support of former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

At the event titled City Citizen Alert Call to Guard TPS, Anies went for the first time directly to campaign for Pramono-Rano. Dressed in a white and black shirt with an orange beret, he invited thousands of his supporters from the stage to contribute to Pramono-Rano's victory.

“If this is maintained, God willing, what has been done so far will be completed by Mas Pram and Bang Doel,” he said.

Pramono has indeed promised to continue Anies' programs if he is elected.

“I am sure that if the elections are honest, victory will be before our eyes,” Pramono said.

Jokowi and Anies influence competition

SMRC researcher Saidiman Ahmad believes that Anies' support for Pramono-Rano is much more influential than Jokowi's support for RK-Suswono.

“Firstly because Jakarta is not actually Jokowi’s base,” Saidiman said. Suara.comFriday (11/22).

This, Saidiman said, was evident from Jokowi's vote acquisition in Jakarta in the two presidential elections. During the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections, he said Jokowi never really won in Jakarta.

In the 2014 presidential election, Jokowi, along with Jusuf Kalla or JK, received 2,859,894 votes. Slightly ahead of their opponents, Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa with 2,528,064 votes.

Meanwhile, in the 2019 presidential election, Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin received 3,279,547 votes. Once again, Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno only narrowly won, with 3,066,137 votes.

In the 2024 presidential election, Saidiman revealed that Jokowi's support for Prabowo Subianto, who is associated with his eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, also had little impact on their vote share in Jakarta.

“Prabowo-Gibran's vote was almost the same as Anies-Cak Imin's, they absolutely did not win, both had 41 percent. So Jakarta is not Pak Jokowi's base. Therefore, I think their influence on the public will be limited,” Saidiman explained.

Instead of having a positive impact on RK-Suswono's electability, Saidiman actually fears that Jokowi's support could actually have the opposite impact. The reason, he said, is that the number of people in Jakarta who are resisting Jokowi is quite high. This level of resistance to Jokowi cannot be divorced from the context of those who are mostly rational voters.

“About 68 percent of Jakarta's population has a high school diploma or above. So they are highly educated, so it is possible that the appearance of Jokowi's direct campaign will actually reduce Jokowi's authority in Jakarta , where the resistance is already strong And perhaps it is “It also has a negative impact on RK,” he said.

Meanwhile, according to Saidiman, Anies' support is very beneficial for Pramono-Rano. One of them is believed to be able to attract votes in PDI Perjuangan's niche areas such as East and South Jakarta.

“East Jakarta and South Jakarta, which are known as Anies' base there, if they move significantly, will really benefit Pram-Rano electorally. Because before, it was not their base,” Saidiman said.

In addition to benefiting Pramono-Rano, according to Saidiman, Anies' support also impacted the strength of PKS voters as supporters of RK-Suswono. The results of a survey conducted by the SMRC revealed that many PKS voters were divided in favor of Pramono-Rano.

“It's actually a bit surprising because PKS is usually a solid mass and I think the person who provoked this was Anies. Because almost all the supporters of PKS (DPRD parliamentary election winner in Jakarta) yesterday were supporters of Anies,” he said. said.

If you look at the electability trend as well as Anies' support, Saidiman believes a single round victory for Pramono-Rano could happen.

“But if politics proceeds normally, yes: there is no resource mobilization last week, there is no politicization of welfare, monetary policy or intimidation. If this happens product, then this normality could change,” he concluded.