Anies Baswedan versus Joko Widodo in the 2024 Jakarta parliamentary elections: who is tougher?

JAKARTA The figure of Rano Karno alias Bang Doel in the 2024 Jakarta or Pilkada regional elections has changed the political map. The presence of Anies Baswedan, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), President Prabowo Subianto and Rizieq Shihab was only a reinforcement during the Jakarta governor election on November 27.

The Jakarta regional elections presented three pairs of candidates to be selected, namely Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana and Pramono Anung-Rano Karno.

However, in the middle of the street, names such as former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, former President Jokowi and President Prabowo Subianto participated in the Jakarta Pilkada protest.

Even the former leader of the Islamic Brotherhood Front (FPI), named the Islamic Defenders Front, also came down the mountain. If Anies expressed his support for the number three pair Pramono and Rano, Jokowi and Prabowo went all out for Ridwan Kamil-Suswono aka RIDO.

Hendri Satrio, political communication analyst and founder of the Indonesian Public Opinion Discussion and Study Institute (KedaiKOPI), said the numbers for the 2024 Jakarta elections were actually Pramono Anung, Ridwan Kamil, Dharma Pongrekun and Suswono, but Rano Karno.

Although at the beginning of Pramono-Rano Karno's eligibility was left aside by RIDO, slowly but surely the couple promoted by the PDI Perjuangan managed to maintain themselves, even in several investigative institutions in front of Ridwan Kamil- Suswono.

Regarding this, Hendro Satrio said that Rano Karno had an important role in controlling the eligibility of the number three candidate pairs.

Compared to other contestants, Rano Karno's name is known to the public as he has been a film actor for a long time. His name soared when he played the character Si Doel in the soap opera Si Doel Anak Sekolah in the 1990s.

Si Doel's character in the soap opera is described as a kind character, a Betawi indigenous child, retaining Betawi culture and “very Jakarta”. Until now, this impression is still very attached to Rano Karno, even the later addition of Si Doel's name on the ballot paper.

So when the emergence of Rano Karno really changes the political map. People know RK very well, people must know Pram too. But Rano Karno is already known,” explains the man we familiarly call Hensat.

“Even though Jakarta residents are known to be rational, Rano Karno's popularity is an asset that allows him to be superior to other candidates,” he added.

Concerning the presence of Anies, Prabowo, Jokowi, even Habib Rizieq in support on the stage of Pilkada 2024, according to Hensat, it was only a reminder.

“Because before, the community was already attracted to Si Doel,” he explained.

Based on the latest survey, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno's eligibility continued with that of Ridwan Kamil-Suswono. The two men mentioned initially excelled in three surveys conducted by Indopolling, Polmark and Indicators. Each survey agency noted that Pramono-Si Doel's electability was 48.4 percent, 40.3 percent and 42.9 percent.

However, Pramono's advantage was not very large compared to that of RIDO with 38.4 percent electability and 34.8 percent in Indopolling and Polmark. Meanwhile, political indicators indicate that RIDO only narrowly lost with 39.2 percent electability.

Despite being superior in various surveys, Hensat does not consider this a guarantee that the Pramono-Si Doel pair would easily win the 2024 Jakarta legislative elections. He even made an analogy between the Battle of Pilkada and a football match , wherever this might occur.

“In Pilkada, like in football, the ball is round. The sound can be considered as something that can change, especially since their eligibility is low,” he said.

Given the fairly tough competition between the Pramono – Si Doel and RK Suswono pairs, it is not impossible that the Jakarta legislative elections will last two rounds. If this happens, Hensat predicts that victory will belong to RIDO.

According to him, there is a unique phenomenon in the Jakarta legislative elections, that is, pairs of candidates with high electability based on the survey will even lose. So far, based on his observations, no candidate has ever achieved the highest electability results to win the Jakarta legislative elections.

“In the past, Fauzi Bowo, in 2012, had a high poll, lost to Jokowi. Ahok was the same, 2017 had a high poll, fell by Anies, so in my opinion, generally the polls were high, they lost in Jakarta elections,” Hensat explained.

He also pressed more strongly on whether the party base supporting him is one of the factors in winning candidate pairs in Jakarta's legislative elections. This has been open since Jakarta's parliamentary elections were held directly in 2007, as a single candidate was supported by many political parties to win the contest. This happened when Fauzi Bowo defeated Adang Daradjatun of PKS in 2007.

“The rest? Jokowi won thanks to the PDI Perjuangan base in 2012, but Anies Baswedan in 2017 also allowed the PKS-Gerindra base to beat Basuki Tjahja Purnama who was promoted by PDI Perjuangan, Golkar, Hanura and Nasdem “, he said.

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