President Erdogan's upcoming visit to the region – OpEd – Eurasia Review

The Horn of Africa States region continues to have a traditional presence in the international media, with major, middle and regional powers all trying to find and make their presence felt in the region, not only through a military presence but also sometimes at the highest diplomatic levels. including presidential visits to the region, and even numerous paid lobbyists in the United States, in other countries getting involved to encourage their governments to collapse Africa's sacrosanct rule on the intangibility of borders when each country was admitted to the United Nations, as a member after independence, to avoid chaos and massive disruption to the relative tranquility of the continent in this regard.

Even if presidential and monarchical visits remain rare and scattered, they nevertheless leave their marks and imprints in a generally confused, conflict-prone and chaotic region. The current state of the region remains in turmoil and mainly involves Ethiopia's aggression against Somalia and its determination to divide the country and seize even more Somali territories, thereby ignoring all international norms.

Somalis have resisted Ethiopian and Abyssinian aggression throughout the centuries, but it has always been unfortunate to find truly supportive friends, while Ethiopia has always played the victim syndrome, even though it has always been the attacker. A reading of Abyssinian expansion in the late 19th and early 20th centuries into the lands of other nations and how its leaders played up the victimization syndrome of a Christian nation surrounded by savages, it is that is to say the Muslims of the region, and of all the conflicts which have ravaged it. since then, the region has witnessed the same victimization syndrome.

It is very unfortunate that Trkiye, who is considered a close ally of Somalia, played the role of victim of Ethiopia and agreed to mediate between the two countries when such mediation was not necessary , and adhered to the false assertion that, being a large country, they must have access to a sea. How many other large countries in the world are landlocked? In Africa alone, there are Mali, Niger and Chad and others like Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Sudan and others. What is unique about Ethiopia that allows it to have access to the sea? Ethiopia should have simply been told to stay out of the internal affairs of other countries, especially Somalia, which has a long history of conflicts involving land grabs by Ethiopia, especially since the end of the 19th century.

Somalia may be a typical fragile state, but its population and territory are sacrosanct under international law. They would not accept their friends being tasked with helping them protect their land, seas and airspace, helping them cede parts of it to a nation that is enemy of both the country and its people, who have not yet found peaceful coexistence with it. . The Ethiopians are reported to want the ancient port of Zeila and a land corridor from there to Ethiopia, rejecting the Tadjorah port proposed by the Republic of Djibouti.

Ethiopia has not yet come to terms with the fact that it is a landlocked country under international law. They should! A much larger economy like Switzerland is a landlocked country, which negates the fact that for its economy to grow it needs access to the sea. It has borders with four neighboring countries, all of which have agreed to ensure commercial accessibility. These include Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and of course Somalia. This is perfectly fine and doable.

However, what is not acceptable is for Ethiopia to build a navy and naval forces for use in other people's ports, which simply translates to ownership of those ports. This is not what the Somalis would accept, nor would the countries of Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti.

The painful relations between Somalia and Ethiopia do not justify and would not allow an invasion of Ethiopian naval forces into Somali waters. This is the crux of the problem, which many have not yet realized.

President Erdogan will always be welcome in Somalia, as he remains the only international leader who found the courage to go there, at his lowest point, with all his family members. This will never be forgotten, and Somalis will always remember President Erdogan for this rare moment!

The recent agreement reached by the Erdogan government to establish peace between Somalia and Ethiopia, however, is another matter entirely. Many Somalis do not accept this, with Ethiopia claiming to have finally gained access to the sea thanks to Trkiye's mediation. Was Trkiye sold to Ethiopia instead of Somalia? What about the trust that the Somali government and people place in Trkiye to protect Somali seas and, in return, benefit from the resources of its marine space? If there had not been such aggression, Somalia would not have sought help from Trkiye or for that matter any other country.

The beautiful words of the Ankara Declaration, according to which the two countries “reaffirmed their mutual respect and commitment to sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity, seem hollow when considering the speeches public comments of Prime Minister Abiye Ahmed when he addressed his people after the meeting in Ankara. must be taken at face value.

However, the above reaffirmation of the issue of sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity is overshadowed by article (e) of the Declaration, which states: They recognized the benefits potentially diverse that could be gained from Ethiopia's guaranteed access to and exit from the sea. , while respecting the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia. Assured access cannot mean that Ethiopian naval or military forces must protect any accessibility mentioned in this paragraph, as Somalia, at present, is not in a position to give such assurance unless it does call on Trkiye again, which will impose a heavier burden on him. .

Many Somalis now suspect that Trkiye appears to have become a front for Ethiopia and are disappointed. There is no doubt that the contract for the construction of the port, wherever it is in Somalia, if it ever happens, will go to Trkiye and that the financing will come from the forces behind the curtains pushing Ethiopia to do and to continually repeat the false assertion that it has no accessibility to the sea. It does!

Somalis understand that President Erdogan visited Ethiopia in 2005, the first of his visits to the continent. Somalis also know that Trkiye has significant investments in Ethiopia, estimated at over two billion US dollars, through some 200 Turkish companies. They also know that Trkiye sells weapons and in particular military drones, which helped Ethiopia fight the Tigrayans during the 2020/2021 war in that state and currently in the ongoing Ethiopian wars against its own other states. Amhara and Oromia, Ethiopia.

Somalis also understand that Trkiye may only be looking at the big market that Ethiopia offers. Somalis have not forgotten the former Soviet Union for which Somalia was instrumental in introducing it to sub-Saharan Africa and ultimately betrayed it by moving to Ethiopia. Is Trkiye undertaking a similar process? That remains to be seen. We hope that Trkiye will not follow in the footsteps of this once great country that no longer exists. A Somali curse may have taken hold of him.

But Trkiyes' interest today is even more pronounced in Somalia, where he manages Mogadishu's seaport and airport, a hospital and is currently involved in oil and gas exploration off Somalia, in the Indian Ocean. Its oil and gas exploration vessel Oruc Reis is currently in Somali waters. Other reports also indicate that Trkiye will build a spaceport for Trkiyes Aerospatiale's activities, both commercial and missile development, in Somalia.

It would be mind-boggling for any country to balance and ride two stubborn horses at the same time. And Trkiye will be no different in this regard. Many Turkish experts generally assume that they have somehow lowered the temperatures of the Horn of Africa states region. However, many measures are not fully disclosed or discussed and therefore only contribute to further public suspicion, particularly in Somalia, the weak link in the equation.

It would be reckless for Trkiye to deceive a fragile country and its population like Somalia, which sought its help, simply to capture a market, like Ethiopia apparently with its false claims to a large population. No census has ever been taken of the Ethiopian population. This figure could be higher or much lower than the 130 million they claim.

In an article from Hiiraan Online, a Somali online magazine, dated December 23, 2024 and titled The Ankara Declaration: A Step Forward or a Betrayal? According to Abdirahim Mohamed, an Ankara-based researcher, the Somali public's view highlights that one of the main weaknesses of Ankara's statement is that it does not mention that Ethiopia canceled the illegal MoU which seemed embarrassing and constituted a betrayal for the Somalis as well as a future challenge for the country. talks. These are heavy words that point to the truth, unlike Ethiopia, since January 1st.^st2024, canceled this illegal memorandum of understanding.

This is food for thought for the Trkiye Cumhuriyet and its leaders.