The three trade wars between the United States and China

It is not the first time that China has faced a trade unleashed trade by Trump. In its previous mandate, the taxation of tariffs aims to affect the industrial export capacity of the Asitic step, although without major consequences if it is considered the sustained growth that China has known in recent years.

HAS Renato BalderramaAcademic of the Economic Research and Teaching Center of Mexico and Specialist in Government Systems in Asia-Pacific, although the United States remains the number one economy and military power to say that no one will have the capacity to overcome it itself, its economy has been funded and has lost industrial competitiveness. Given this crisis, the government of Joe Biden is trying to recover the industrial capacity of the APs with politics “Reinforce better“From 2020 and 2021, focusing on the construction of infrastructure, strengthening the automotive industry worldwide, investing in innovation and technology of semiconductors and progressing in sustainable agriculture. However, this project has failed Balderrama, this does not constitute an effective industrial policy and, instead, causes an increase in input costs for consumers and businesses.

From Trump's point of view, it is necessary to take advantage of the current economic power of the United States to reaffirm its supremaca and force the plunge

In the short term, this strategy may not generate major drawbacks because the United States remains an economic power. In 2024, it is estimated that its GDP rose nearly 29 billion DLARESGoing exceeding China, the second world economy. However, in the long term, if the current conditions are maintained, China can reverse the United States and occupy the first place in the world economy. If a disruptive policy is not implemented, the United States can lose its hegemon.

The three wars

Balderrama explains that between the United States and China, there are currently three fronts of confrontation: tariff war, financial war and war for technological innovation.

THE Pricing warwhich has already been characterized by reciprocity. Each economic sanction imposed by the United States has been replied by China with an equivalent measure. In this sense, China directed its sanctions to sensitive products for the electoral base of Trump, such as agro-industry, LCTEO and chronic products.

THE Financial war It is crucial to the United States because its economic domain lies in the financial sector. China, on the other hand, has requested alternatives to weaken Western hegemony, promote an alternative currency to the DLAR within the BRICS, articulate alternative banking systems with European and American factories and develop a digital yuan. It should be remembered that China is the largest holder of American debts.

The most important competition between the two passes is for the Techolgica innovacin. According to Balderrama, this is the real engine of the measures taken by Donald Trump. In each sector where the United States has shown force, China has produced it and even overcome it. Examples of this are 5G, Huawei, Tiktok, Deepseek and, recently, the automotive industry, where Byd has exceeded Tesla on the market.

Western explanations on these advances are generally focusing on accusations of technology theft, the deposit of industrial subsidies or espionage, ignoring that the West also uses similar strategies. Even Elon Musk and Susa received state subsidies, despite the American capitalist model.

Why a second trade war?

From Trump's point of view, it is necessary to take advantage of the current economic power of the United States to reaffirm its supremaca and force the country's reindustrialisation. However, Balderrama must try to achieve in four years what China has built in three dads is an impossible task.

The United States moves its industrial capacity in the world of world, first in Mexico and then in China. This process was formalized in 2001 when China entered the WTO with American approval. Europe has followed a similar model, assuming that “underdeveloped” passes never reach the capacity for technological innovation. They were wrong: China managed to industrialize and develop their own technology.

Before Trump, the Obama government tries to contain the rise of China. He Transpacphic Agreement for Economic Cooperation (TPP)Signed in 2016, it was a deliberate attempt to stop the Asician giant by excluding it from the commercial pact and by transferring economic power to Asia-Pctif in the United States. However, the measure did not give the expected results.

China measures before the price war

Faced with the restrictions imposed by the United States, China has implemented several content strategies:

1. Strengthening cooperation with the world South, including the Southeast Assitic, the Frica and South America.
2. Impulse of Yuan as digital currency and its convertibility on international markets.
3. Reinforcement of the BRICS.
4. Creation of Regional economic association.A trade agreement that seeks to eliminate 90% of rates from its members within 20 years.
5. Trilateral cooperation between China, South Korea and Japan to generate trade agreements and act as a block against Trump's prices.
6. Implementation of national strategy Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025), created in 2015 and which seeks to lead key sectors such as artificial intelligence, root and renewable energies.

The future of the United States

Balderrama considers that, unless Trump manages to extend his economic project, his strategy will not have Xito. And even if you succeed, most likely is that this plan fails. Forced reindustrialisation through prices is impossible and costly. Simply moving a factory in Mexico to the United States can take five to six years. This, without considering the absence of labor at operating costs in Mexico.

The tariff plan has a symbolic character that is practiced, aligning on Trump's vision to restore the idea of ​​an invincible United States, capable of overcoming any difficulty. Although it was industry 3.0 which favored its arrival at the White House, in its event, it was surrounded by industry representatives 4.0: large technological companies. These compations are the main beneficiaries of these protectionist measures because they have enabled them to develop and generate wealth. However, this does not necessarily result in a real economic development for the step, because the creation of new jobs does not imply.

Meanwhile, China continues to consolidate itself as a possible winner of this economic war.