Nebraska football at a crossroads: Four things Matt Rhule must do to make the Cornhuskers relevant again

Sometime this spring, billions of cicadas will emerge from the ground in the eastern half of the United States. Some will have been underground for thirteen years, others for seventeen years. Regardless of the time each cicada spent in the cold, damp earth, waiting to finally see the sun and be eaten by a bird, they will all ask the same question.

“What the hell happened to Nebraska football while I was there?”

The last time Nebraska faced Crickets was in 2007. The Cornhuskers went 5-7 and fired Bill Callahan for having the audacity to miss a bowl game. It was the second time one of Callahan's Nebraska teams did so after the Cornhuskers went bowling every season from 1969 to 2003, with multiple national titles in between. In the 17 years since, Nebraska has been to nine bowl games, the last of which was in 2016.

It's a program that has been wandering aimlessly since leaving the Big 12 to join the Big Ten in 2011. Time and time again, Nebraska has started a new season hoping to fix its problems, only to be met with disappointment.

The biggest problem in solving Nebraska's problems is knowing what the problem is. All kinds of things have gone wrong, both on and off the field. Scott Frost's tenure was an unmitigated disaster from start to finish, but one statistic from Frost's tenure has been cited repeatedly.

In Frost's five seasons at Nebraska, the Cornhuskers struggled, going 7-25 in one-score games. The blame was placed squarely on the coaching staff. The reason Nebraska failed to win close games, or lost the lead too late, was a failure of leadership. The hope was that a new staff would fix this. Matt Rhule was seen as a promising program builder based on his previous work at Temple and Baylor, but had a disastrous run in the N.F.L with the Carolina Panthers.

The Huskers went 1-5 in one-score games in 2023, Rhule's first season, and dropped their record since 2018 to 8-30 in one-score games.

Of course, it's important to note that continued poor performance over five years under Frost was a trend. The 1-5 record in one season under Rhule could be an outlier. The question is: How is Nebraska going to solve this? The answer is not simply to cross our fingers and hope for more breaks.

You make your own breaks, and if there's one thing Nebraska football has done consistently over the years, it's shoot itself in the foot. Here's a laundry list of breaks the Huskers need to make.

1. Take care of that damn football

Since that legendary 2018 season, Nebraska has a turnover margin of -38. That ranks 130th out of 133 FBS teams. While it's a bit simplistic, you could make a compelling argument that the best way to avoid losing one-score games is to stop giving the ball away so damn often. You might be several scores higher!

What's somewhat strange, however, is that even though the Huskers have turned the ball over far too often, their point winning margin in that period of -37 is not good, but better than you would expect. It ranks 93rd nationally and suggests the defense has done a pretty good job saving the offense.

Last season, the Huskers had a turnover margin of -17 (132nd) and a points-off turnover margin of -28 (109th). While these numbers are bad, they could have been much worse. It lost 15 fumbles, but fumbled 31 times. The fumbled 4.19% of his offensive snaps. Both figures were the worst in the country.

I care much more about a team's number of fumbles than the number of lost fumbles. Once the ball is on the ground, it is a coin flip. The only way to ignore luck is to never fumble with the ball.

Jeff Sims began the season as Nebraska's starting QB, but was quickly replaced when he had trouble holding the ball and made six fumbles (including six interceptions). He was replaced by Heinrich Haarberg, who fumbled thirteen times. It was a serious issue that derailed many Nebraska drives and played a large role in why the Huskers offense finished 124th nationally in points per possession (1.45) and 126th nationally in possessions scored (24.3%). ).

As a team, Nebraska turned the ball over on 20.1% of its possessions last season. Not only was that the highest rate in the country, but the next highest was Georgia Southern at 18.3%. The national average was 10.8%.

2. The forward pass exists, so use it

Nebraska has never been a haven for the pocket-passer prototype. The best QBs in program history, like Tommie Frazier and Eric Crouch, won Heismans thanks to their prowess as rushers in option offenses. The hope in Nebraska is that Dylan Raiola will change that.

Raiola is a five-star freshman who carries the hopes of a large fan base on his shoulders. While it's a lot to ask a freshman to carry the load like this, if Raiola can provide a glimpse of a passing attack in 2024, he would be well on his way to ending the bowl drought.

The Big Ten had no shortage of bad passing attacks last season, but while Iowa's offense, a raging dumpster fire, drew most of the attention, it's not like the Huskers tore it up.

1.Michigan	165.8	0.38	8.9	6.6%	1.4%	5.2%	30.5%
2. Ohio State	155.2	0.31	8.7	6.5%	1.8%	5.4%	26.2%
3. Maryland	141.4	0.11	7.6	5.7%	2.7%	5.7%	28.6%
4. Penn State	139.4	0.22	6.8	7.3%	0.5%	3.7%	29.5%
5. Illinois	139.2	0.09	7.7	5.5%	3.1%	8.8%	35.5%
6. Northwest	131.5	0.05	6.8	5.1%	2.1%	11.6%	39.9%
7.Indiana	127.8	0.08	7.0	4.9%	2.7%	6.4%	34.5%
8.Purdue	121.5	0.01	6.5	3.8%	2.6%	5.8%	37.4%
9.Wisconsin	118.9	0.01	6.1	3.0%	1.1%	4.7%	25.2%
10. Michigan State	116.8	-0.08	6.3	3.7%	3.4%	6.2%	31.5%
11. Minnesota	112.6	-0.04	6.0	5.1%	3.5%	6.3%	32.8%
12. Rutgers	105.2	-0.09	6.1	3.4%	2.7%	4.5%	26.0%
13.Nebraska	105.0	-0.09	6.2	3.8%	6.1%	10.3%	40.4%
14. Iowa	91.2	-0.27	4.8	2.6%	3.2%	8.4%	38.2%

Those sack numbers and pressure numbers stand out, but they aren't necessarily damning statements about the offensive line. What my eyes tell me when I look at Nebraska's offense is that the responsibility lies more with Sims and Haarberg. Not only did they both have a tendency to hold the ball for too long, they were also constantly on the move. Blocking defenders without being able to grab and tackle them is a difficult job. It becomes much more difficult when you're never sure where the QB you need to protect is at any given time.

Imagine you are a member of the Secret Service, but you don't know where the president is.

It will be easier to know where Raiola is. Although he is a good athlete for someone his size, Raiola prefers to do his damage out of his own pocket. While he will undoubtedly have his work cut out for him as a freshman to handle the ball and get the ball out on time, his presence alone should help alleviate those sack numbers.

Raiola is also much better equipped to push the ball vertically in the passing game. That threat hasn't been there much in recent years, so opposing defenses didn't have to respect it and could worry about defending a smaller part of the field. Force the defense to stop the safeties, and everything opens up, whether that's under routes or in space in the running game. All of this should lead to a more efficient and effective Nebraska offense.

3. Make some field goals

Special teams are always overlooked, but can make a big difference in close games. While turnovers and QB play are the biggest culprits in Nebraska's struggle to win one-score games, a damn field goal every now and then wouldn't hurt.

Since 2018, Nebraska kickers have converted 67% of their field goal attempts. That number ranks 120th nationally. The success rate drops to 44% on attempts over 40 meters, which ranks 124th.

Not every drive ends with a touchdown, but if you hold onto the ball, get within field goal range, and actually make the field goal, it helps a lot!

4. Maintain defensive momentum

The one thing Nebraska has gotten right lately is its defense. The Huskers were a very good defense last season, ranking in the top 20 and top 10 in some of the metrics that matter most.

National rank	17th	9th	5th	28th	23rd	94th

There are areas where the device could be improved. Ideally, it would be more disruptive and force more turnovers (last year it ranked 94th in defensive turnover rate, its only real weakness), but overall this unit did its job. Maintaining the overall level while improving margins could help this team return to a bowl game. Combine it with significant improvements in the areas outlined above, and Nebraska could emerge as one of the better teams in the Big Ten this season.

Too bad the crickets won't be there long enough to see it.