State of the Program: Missouri Football, Year 5 under Eli Drinkwitz

Welcome back to College Football Saturday, everyone!

Mizzou isn’t playing yet, so we can all breathe a sigh of relief. Sure, there are only a few games today, but college football is back. And for the next 16 weeks, we have football. And then a month of more football! The season ends on January 20th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia with the National Championship game.

The season kicks off today at 11 a.m. ET when #10 Florida State and unranked Georgia Tech both travel to — and that's where — Dublin, Ireland to play at Aviva Stadium in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic.

The University of Missouri kicks off its season on Thursday at 7 p.m. with another early start against the FCS Murray State Racers. The 11th-ranked Tigers are heavy favorites and the game will be televised on the SEC Network.

This is my fifth season writing about the state of the Mizzou football program, and the fifth season with Eli Drinkwitz at the helm. And how things have changed. Really, in just one year.

Year 1 was surprisingly good. Year 2 had some interesting moments, but overall it was a disappointing season. Year 3 saw Drink overhaul his defense, only to leave the offense as one of the most inconsistent units in the SEC with Drink as the play caller. So in Year 4 we were hoping for a good year, but there was still some understandable skepticism.

After playing playcalling his entire tenure as head coach, Drinkwitz gave it up to Bush Hamdan midway through his third year and saw immediate returns. He then hired Kirby Moore to lead the offense last year. With so many returning players on the defensive end, even a modest improvement on offense would have allowed the Tigers to exceed even the most modest expectations. Well, both units improved, but the improvement on offense saw the Tigers go from 74th in offense according to Bill Cs SP+ to 13th last season.

That 61-spot improvement was largely due to Brady Cook's consistent quarterback play, Luther Burden III's growth as a playmaker, the reliable play of the offensive line and, of course, Cody Schrader's stellar running.

The offensive leap helped the Tigers become one of the biggest surprise teams of the season, as they went from no votes in the preseason top 25 and an SP+ ranking of 35th to a 10-2 regular season finish, reaching a New Years Bowl game, the Cotton Bowl, where they defeated traditional powerhouse Ohio State. Their final ranking reflected a complete breakout finish 8th in the latest AP Poll, And 10th in SP+.

Breaking out is great, it gets coaches extensions and raises, it gets fans excited, but it also raises expectations. And for Missouri, the expectations are no longer just to play in a bowl game, or possibly get eight wins. But both inside and outside the program, people are talking about competing for an SEC championship and, in turn, a national title.

A lot can change in a year.

What do increased expectations look like?

Cal Tobias/Rock M Nation

The expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams has changed the outlook for many teams outside of the traditional powerhouses like Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan. Schools like Missouri, Ole Miss, Kansas State and even, yes, Kansas This year you have a better chance of competing for the championship if you can make it to the 12-team playoffs.

Now, making the playoffs is still a tough call. Missouri probably won’t be in a similar position to last year, where two conference losses could keep them in the race. In the tiebreakers, their weak spot is a weaker schedule than some of the other favorites in the league. So, in most cases, they should be up there with two losses.

Either way, Missouri is expected to be in the playoff picture. I’m not sure where the line is for fans to be disappointed, but if the Tigers don’t make the playoffs, there’s still room for us to believe it was a good season. After all, there have been plenty of seasons following a breakout where the Tigers have taken a step back, even if only a little bit. And despite some high rankings early in the season in the AP poll and SP+Missouri doesn't get the individual attention that teams with high expectations typically receive.

On the recent return of Brandon Kiley spoke to BTBS about Mizzou went 11-1 in the regular season and even predicted it. Even the most grounded Mizzou fans have their sights set on 10 wins. That includes road games at Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina and Mississippi State.

A reminder that Missouri has only been to Starkville once and it didn’t go well, and they’ve never beaten Alabama (as part of the SEC). Texas A&M is a top 25 team, and people always think South Carolina is going to be good. Plus, Oklahoma and Auburn are probably going to be tough opponents, too. And we basically said, yeah, go win them all.

Building to build

Maybe there is no such thing as a rebuilding program. The way college football works is that you’re always one bad cycle or a few injuries away from a bad year or more. And Mizzou certainly needs a few things to go right to achieve these lofty goals. The new playground that Missouri is playing on, with the NIL and the transfer portal shifting the ground beneath our feet, has set the Tigers up for the most permanent stay among the national powerhouses that we’ve seen in my lifetime. Dan said as much in his piece about building a perpetual winner, but the thing about building a perpetual winner is that you have to do it once and then do it again. And then again and again.

Drinkwitz has done it once before. The state of the program is as healthy as it has been since Pinkel’s peak, where they go from here depends on the head coach continuing to reset the expectations and mindsets of what Missouri Football is. The next step toward that ultimate goal begins on Thursday at 7 p.m.