Sports
Prediction, keys, how to watch, betting line
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan States football's game against Indiana on Saturday at 3:33 p.m. TV: Streaming on Peacock. Betting line: Indiana -7.5
1. MSU's ability to bounce back
If Michigan States fans were in this game, I'm pretty confident Spartans would lose by a million points. The Spartan faithful haven't finished talking about the events of the past week in Michigan enough to be called in for what is likely a tougher task. Fortunately for MSU, athletes tend to be more resilient than their fans. Still, it was a big blow last week before the postgame battle. This is a test of MSU's ability to bounce back and reset. MSU captains held a players-only meeting early this week to make sure everyone was in the right headspace.
In some ways, this is a better opportunity than last week's game at Michigan. The rivalry with the Wolverines will always be THE game, but from a national perspective, it's the first team to get the win. Hoosiers who have become the darlings of college football this season would get a lot of attention and be a sign that the MSU program is not only making progress in Year 1 under Jonathan Smith, but also showing people that the Spartans have a level of resilience and maturity about them. This victory would be impressive. And noticed it.
2. Indiana's QB situation
It seems likely that Indiana starting QB Kurtis Rourke will play this Saturday after missing last week's Hoosiers win over Washington following thumb surgery just a week ago Monday. Indiana sophomore Tayven Jackson is a capable backup, but Rourke is a different caliber and would be more of a problem for the Spartans. Rourke, a transfer from Ohio University, has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards in seven starts, completing more than 70% of his passes, with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions. He's a big guy who moves quite well and can pick you apart with under and between passes. If he's healthy enough to handle the ball and play effectively, Indiana will be a much tougher team to slow down offensively.
3. Can the Spartans make the Hoosiers uncomfortable?
There are several levels to making Indiana uncomfortable, starting with the Spartan Stadium crowd. Much of the Hoosiers' weak schedule isn't their fault. However, them playing eight home games is one of my least favorite sins. This is by far their toughest road game yet in terms of opponents and atmosphere wins over bad Northwestern and UCLA teams in sleepy environments are their other road wins. MSU fans may be a little disappointed after last week, but if the noise in Spartan Stadium reaches big-game decibels, it will be an experience that Indiana hasn't had to deal with yet.
Additionally, the Hoosiers' offense is great at getting favorable downs and distances and avoiding negative play. MSU hasn't sacked a quarterback in its last four games. The layers of pressure that the Spartans applied so well early waned as they faced elite competition and then, over the past two weeks, faced run-heavy teams. Indiana will be a challenge. The Hoosiers are a balanced offense that puts their playmakers in space just like everyone else, and QB Kurtis Rourke runs the show well.
The other thing Indiana hasn't dealt with close games yet. They are beating FBS competition by an average of over 26 points per game. If MSU can hang with the Hoosiers and make them feel the pressure of a tight game late in a tough environment, they may not be as balanced as they have looked all season.
4. MSU in the red zone
MSU's red zone offense is more than a bugaboo, at this point the Spartans rank 129th nationally. Their failures are as memorable as they are statistical: the fumble at the goal line at Oregon, the fourth down game at Michigan that culminated in a missed field goal, etc. MSU won't beat Indiana if it doesn't maximize its chances. points. This can't be another record for Jonathan Kim on Saturday. MSU should manage to keep pace. Indiana's 31-17 win over Washington last week (with a backup QB) marked the first time all season that the Hoosiers didn't reach 40 points. A lot of this is planning related. But MSU likely won't have a chance in this game if it doesn't hit the end zone at least four times, something the Spartans have yet to do against FBS competition this season.
5. MSU's offensive playmakers
Aidan Chiles, Nick Marsh, Montorie Foster, Nate Carter and Kayron Lynch-Adams have all shown themselves to be dynamic players at least once or more this season. Carter was the best he's ever been last week. However, they never put it all together at once. Part of this is based on opportunities and circumstances. But with MSU's offensive line progressing and eight games under its belt, this would be a good time to see everything work at once.
Indiana's rush defense and pass rush are the main reasons why the Hoosiers are the fifth-ranked defense in the country. Pound for pound, however, Indiana shouldn't be on a different level than the Spartans. This is a real opportunity, the last for MSU to turn heads on a national scale. I think MSU has the playmakers to make this interesting.
Prediction
Indiana and MSU have taken different paths in their first eight games under new coaches. Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti was without a doubt an excellent addition. But MSU would also have been at least 6-0 had it played the Hoosiers schedule. Indiana's impressive wins over Nebraska and Washington over the past two weeks are proof of more. This is an Indiana team loaded with confidence and plenty of talent. The Spartans, meanwhile, have moved to 4-4 with road games at Boston College, Oregon and Michigan, facing Ohio State and Oregon six days apart. MSU has all its flaws and warts and has had to earn it all. In the long run, that could prove to be the better way to build something. But it did not lead to a better season. Indiana is no fluke and the Hoosiers are rolling.
Make it: Indiana 34, MSU27
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
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Sources 2/ https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/columnists/graham-couch/2024/10/31/msu-football-vs-indiana-prediction-preview-tv-streaming-betting-line/75943683007/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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